Stormlover74
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Everything posted by Stormlover74
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I expect Upton to go with advisories for Union eastern Essex and everyone else east of the parkway. Not sure about eastern LI. Western Essex probably gets a warning along with bergen and passaic and north of there. Somerset is a tough call for Mt holly as they don't split the county so they could go warning there -
Yeah I'm not sure what to think. The euro gfs and rgem continue to adjust maybe trying to come to a consensus track just offshore. I worry we lose some precip at the onset too with temps above freezing at the start and it's such a fast mover that any delay shaves off accumulations. I like the typical areas like n&w of 287 as a lock for 6+ now. Hopefully everyone at least gets 2 or 3 from the heavy burst in the evening like the gfs has been showing.
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33-34 at the start. Mid to upper 20s at the end
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Euro is like 3 or 4 for us but 6+ west. Less east. Eps came way west
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06z euro came west. It needs to stop
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So gfs is tucked in a bit at 6z but rgem made a se jog. Still tricky for 95 and the coast
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Friday
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Regular nam
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Watch the rgem go further amped at 0z
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What else am I going to do between 7 and 9?
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Right. I only mentioned because it made a pretty sizeable shift but it's still not very useful so it could shift back
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Doesn't mean much but the 0z hrrr is well southeast of 18z
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Something's gotta give. Maybe not til 0z tomorrow
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Gfs is stronger and has heavier precip even though it all falls in about 8 hours
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So many absolutes for being 48 hours out of things that can or can't happen. Let's remember the gfs had nothing 48 hours ago. The nam nada yesterday
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3 to 5. Ukie like and cold
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Yeah its 50 miles east of the 12z rgem
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Not quite
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Going to be an odd looking accumulation map
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Mt holly issued for nw nj as well
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/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.250119T1700Z-250120T0900Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 308 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 8 inches possible.
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But do you think it's amounts are too low? The other day you seemed more enthused about a higher impact event
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It's basically held 4 straight runs with just minor changes
