Sounds like it could hold together
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Mid-Atlantic...New York
and Southern New England
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 120214Z - 120814Z
SUMMARY...The threat for some areas of flash flooding will
continue into the overnight hours from areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION...A low amplitude shortwave impulse embedded in deep
layer southwest flow continues to advance progressively off to the
northeast with the energy crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic and
advancing toward southern NY and adjacent areas of southern New
England.
This energy has been driving a fairly large area of heavy showers
and thunderstorms this evening along and adjacent to a
quasi-stationary frontal zone draped west to east across PA. In
fact the latest radar imagery continues to show a forward
propagating MCS advancing toward eastern PA which has been
sustained by a pool of MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg focused
across much of southeast to east-central PA. Stronger mid-level
flow/shear also continues to play a role in storm organization
with this activity.
Well to the north of the front, there has been some heavy
stratiform rain and embedded elevated convection associated with
the warm air advection pattern impacting areas of north-central to
northeast PA and adjacent areas of south-central NY. In fact,
there has also been a notable corridor of enhanced low-level
frontogenetical forcing in the 1000 to 850 mb layer which has
helped to sustain a narrow axis of more enhanced rainfall with
efficient rainfall processes yielding heavier rain rates. PWs have
continued to increase with values of 1.8 to 2 inches in place
given the deeper layer southwest flow advancing through the
Mid-Atlantic states and toward southern NY and southern New
England.
Going into the overnight hours, the aforementioned band of
convection will foster heavy rainfall and at least some flash
flooding concerns for areas of eastern PA, and potentially getting
into parts of northern NJ and far southeast NY. However, this
activity should generally begin to weaken after midnight given an
increasingly stable boundary layer.
Yeah I was gonna say that cell over nw Middlesex looks nasty Over an inch on the day after that storm
