Stormlover74

Ukie south too 

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Have to admit I'm starting to get a bad feeling even though I've always been a fan of the RGEM. 

Yeah I dont know. These events that favor the mid Atlantic often screw us. Usually the nam is too far north though like the early Jan 22 storm that missed us 

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

So basically right now we have no idea if we're gonna get 2-3 inches or almost nothing. Hopefully RGEM/Euro are right but can't have any confidence until the American models come back north. Hopefully we will see UKMET and Euro hold shortly. As usual a very difficult forecast a couple days before an event. It's never easy. 

I expected the gfs to remain a bit south of the other models not to shift another 50 miles south though 

Not even a flake on the gfs. congrats va beach

dont look at the nam lol

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did Providence get much less than Boston in PD2? PD2 came from the south.....

 

it started on the 16th so maybe they got more that night 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

and it starts around 1 am?

I like the ones that start at sunrise, snow all day and end at sunset.

looks like around there

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it would be nice if it snowed all day and then ended with a beautiful sunset....

 

these always wrap up quickly. probably by 7 to 10 west to east

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I thought we had like one inch in April?

But in the middle of March it was amazingly warm (mid to upper 80s with sunshine!)

 

yeah april was minor. May have been more significant to the south with of course the major mid month warmth that wasn't expected. I believe my forecast was 72 and we hit 85

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think it will at least be warm and sunny like March 1990?

 

That month had snow (clipper that stalled and gave us 3") 

long range hrrr but its not very enthused for our area. Generally an inch or less at 10:1. It's also done by this point

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

we usually do a little better than the city in events like this so in a 2-4 range, it would be Central Park getting 2 and we would get 3, or 3 and 4... this is just going by memory of past events like this.

yeah central park probably does worse than central nj and LI and even NW NJ 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

what if you are at the same latitude as I-78 on the south shore of Long Island?

Models are showing some enhancement off the ocean for coastal locations

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Way too early to say that with a definite answer. 

Can always squeeze out a nighttime event in between periods of warmth

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1

They could actually have a higher ratio inside of the heavier banding south of 195

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Wasn't sure. Just asking 

Some have mentioned it but to be safe go with 10:1

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Will ratios be better than 10:1? More like 12-15 no?

I wouldn't necessarily expect that 

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM very nice event, would probably be 3-5” especially I-80 south given ratios. Might have a nice snow cover in places that get hit decently with this and last storm. 

Hopefully models at least hold if not continue bumping north

Nah +10

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s a mid Atlantic winter. Funny we go from a winter of cutters last winter to suppression this winter. 

We'll see.  Still bouncing around 

Nam back south

Gfs ens stronger and north as well

Gfs ticked north.

thread created for Saturday