Stormlover74

long range hrrr but its not very enthused for our area. Generally an inch or less at 10:1. It's also done by this point

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

we usually do a little better than the city in events like this so in a 2-4 range, it would be Central Park getting 2 and we would get 3, or 3 and 4... this is just going by memory of past events like this.

yeah central park probably does worse than central nj and LI and even NW NJ 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

what if you are at the same latitude as I-78 on the south shore of Long Island?

Models are showing some enhancement off the ocean for coastal locations

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Way too early to say that with a definite answer. 

Can always squeeze out a nighttime event in between periods of warmth

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

just like it was safe to go with 10:1 the previous event ?- many of the individuals mentioning it are METS with a solid reputation.....temps will be in the 20's at the surface and cold enough aloft....places in south jersey might have closer to 10:1

They could actually have a higher ratio inside of the heavier banding south of 195

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Wasn't sure. Just asking 

Some have mentioned it but to be safe go with 10:1

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Will ratios be better than 10:1? More like 12-15 no?

I wouldn't necessarily expect that 

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

RGEM very nice event, would probably be 3-5” especially I-80 south given ratios. Might have a nice snow cover in places that get hit decently with this and last storm. 

Hopefully models at least hold if not continue bumping north

Nah +10

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s a mid Atlantic winter. Funny we go from a winter of cutters last winter to suppression this winter. 

We'll see.  Still bouncing around 

Nam back south

Gfs ens stronger and north as well

Gfs ticked north.

thread created for Saturday 

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

cover their rears

Upton has less than an inch for me which is reasonable 2.5 days out

Wow very nice

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Getting the feeling we are just about done with snowfall around the area after Saturday 

Mid March surprise

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

But if we end up getting 2 snow events out of it (yesterday and saturday morning), at least we'll be able to say that the mid to late February pattern produced decently. 

Anyway 12z Euro gets light snow up here. About an inch, with more for  southern NJ. Hopefully the RGEM is right and we'll see some north trends with the other models. Would be nice to get 2 or 3 inches. 

The funny thing is our two biggest storms - 1/6 and yesterday, both occurred before the pattern was supposed to become more favorable

Ok who is this and what did you do with snowman19?

Ukie came a hair north but still nothing north of Monmouth 

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

many were saying the same thing in reverse ( favoring the northern areas) for yesterdays event at this same range 3 days out......

This isn't nearly the same type of setup and won't be as prone to major shifts either way

Gfs very weak for us

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This looks like a light event.  There will be no time for it to bomb off the coast.

Nothing wrong with 1-3 inches though. 

Yeah I'm just saying we risk getting barely a coating if nam is right. I'm not expecting the 3 to 5 like southern areas may see

Just now, Allsnow said:

I thought the icon did well with yesterday’s event. It never bought into a nyc jackpot 

It kept showing no snow south of 80 for days

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It just depends how far north it comes  

Unfortunately icon is usually too far north so I wouldn't use it. I like seeing the rgem so robust