Stormlover74

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

cover their rears

Upton has less than an inch for me which is reasonable 2.5 days out

Wow very nice

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Getting the feeling we are just about done with snowfall around the area after Saturday 

Mid March surprise

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

But if we end up getting 2 snow events out of it (yesterday and saturday morning), at least we'll be able to say that the mid to late February pattern produced decently. 

Anyway 12z Euro gets light snow up here. About an inch, with more for  southern NJ. Hopefully the RGEM is right and we'll see some north trends with the other models. Would be nice to get 2 or 3 inches. 

The funny thing is our two biggest storms - 1/6 and yesterday, both occurred before the pattern was supposed to become more favorable

Ok who is this and what did you do with snowman19?

Ukie came a hair north but still nothing north of Monmouth 

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

many were saying the same thing in reverse ( favoring the northern areas) for yesterdays event at this same range 3 days out......

This isn't nearly the same type of setup and won't be as prone to major shifts either way

Gfs very weak for us

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This looks like a light event.  There will be no time for it to bomb off the coast.

Nothing wrong with 1-3 inches though. 

Yeah I'm just saying we risk getting barely a coating if nam is right. I'm not expecting the 3 to 5 like southern areas may see

Just now, Allsnow said:

I thought the icon did well with yesterday’s event. It never bought into a nyc jackpot 

It kept showing no snow south of 80 for days

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It just depends how far north it comes  

Unfortunately icon is usually too far north so I wouldn't use it. I like seeing the rgem so robust

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

The "walking to school uphill in 3 feet of snow" probably evolved over many decades, AND not necessarily occuring in the immediate NYC metro area.  Also, no doubt, people from eastern PA and other outlying areas, moved into the area during the 50's and 60s, and brought tales of heavy snow with them.

I did it in the 90s lol

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

This probably doesn't fully take into account the higher snow ratios this time around - just like yesterdays clown map output didn't take into account the lower ratio's this storm will have at least 12:1 ratio and possibly as high as 15:1 in some areas

Kuchera is slightly better

4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

This obviously includes snow from tomorrow night north of our area 

Yes this is just saturday morning's event

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

February 14, 2007 I have listed as a mix of light snow, sleet and freezing rain (maybe 1.5" total sleet snow accumulation)?  My notes show that a low was forecast to move into the Great Lakes, but rather slid across southen PA.  A secondary formed off the Carolinas and moved north.  Heavy snow warnings posted, but warmer air worked its way into mid levels, resulting in a mixed bag.  Is this correct?  I think the 5.5" sleet storm occurred March 17, 2007?

March was the bigger sleet event. All sleet pretty much the entire duration. VD started a bit of snow and might have had some freezing rain but was a decent amount of sleet too. I measured 3.4 in Feb and 5.9 in March 

I think it was the 850 low track that screwed us as the coastal track was fine and temps were very cold

Just now, NEG NAO said:

still chance of this moving further north with more snow here - NAM is not in its most accurate range yet........

I still think it's a 1 to maybe 2" event as the gfs and euro show but could see it drying up or favoring southern areas too

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Sure, if you compare this to arguably the worst winter of all time it's fine but compared to a normal winter this has been another awful winter so I think there's a lot to complain about if you're a snow lover. It's all a matter of perspective I guess.

But if you compare it to 83 or 2016 you're bound to be disappointed

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Right, it was like a spring storm in what's supposed to be the heart of winter.

 

With how warm it's been this could've easily been a snowless month

1 minute ago, dWave said:

97 - 98 was easily worse imo. That year was 0.5" until the late March surprise 5" snowfall..which rapidly melted under the late March sun, followed by 80+ degree days to close out the month.

So there was none of these 1 or 2" events we had earlier. It may not be a lot but it was something and at least coated the ground briefly.  97-98 was the closest thing to a virtual snowless DJF in anyone's memory today. By late March in 98 I was fine with keeping the record low snow season in tact.

 

Yes that year we had absolutely nothing to track all of January and February through mid march and not a flake accumulated. This winter could've easily been 3 or 4 moderate events and close to average but the Jan events all did worse than expected here

Yesterday we threaded the needle and made it work for most. Nyc will need a bombing low well off the coast like jan 2018 with temps in the 20s to get a big event. These borderline events just don't work out there anymore

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No, but many made long range forecasts based on one significant 10"+ storm regionwide, it didn't have to be an HECS.

Most forecasts I saw talked about a back loaded winter with a favorable mid Jan to mid Feb period. Not necessarily a 1 and done. But the reason I say luck is because things just haven't come to together even when our pattern was more favorable

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yeah, but it also proves to expect many more winters of this type, it really has nothing to do with enso state and much more to do with the evolving climate.

 

I agree but you sound like you thought we'd repeat those winters 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Just dont say that 1982-83 and 2015-16 were "luck" there is no such thing as "luck" there are specific scientific reasons why these events happened and we had much better blocking in those winters.  With the changing climate, those kinds of block have become far less frequent.

That's the real reason why they happened.  After 2015-16 we saw a complete change to the Pacific ocean that we still have not recovered from.

 

Sure but you just proved why we shouldn't expect an 82-83 repeat. That was the old climate

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Those were far colder especially in the back half of winter.  April 1983 had the latest significant snowfall in the history of Long Island and we had some moderate events in February 2016 as well as going below 0 on this date.  There were several things to like about both of those.

I dont get the glee about this winter, it's historically awful not just here but on a national level.

 

No glee just happy most of us cashed in at least once. Even if cashing in means 1 plowable event

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

But then I go back to my point about it being silly to set 1997-98 to compare this winter to.  That winter was a failure and so is this one and yes we can say it's a failure on a national level.  It's not just about inland areas either.

 

But you can never expect a KU event just because 2 analog winters happened to have one. If the sample were larger and say 9 out of 10 strong ninos had one I'd say maybe