Stormlover74

Starting to rain and lightning

Watch issued for most of Mt hollys counties til 11pm

Probably just miss to my north

27 minutes ago, Picard said:

Hopefully folks didn't cancel outdoor plans based on earlier forecasts that didn't materialize. 
I watched that line skip north like many others in recent memory  - looked like a nice line.  We'll see if more pops up later.  Otherwise, north will continue to rule the day.

 

So many did, expecting a weekend washout 

Warned storms already

80 and muggy

Still massive differences between the gfs and euro. Major bust coming for one of them

Euro still very wet

20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'll be satisfied as long as we get around an inch of rain. We don't need the big 3 to 5 inch amounts that the Euro is showing, but we do need a good watering. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro holds with the much bigger amounts on the 12z run. It seems as if our very big rain event is falling apart. 

Crazy differences 

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I was just gonna post the same thing. Models not showing much anymore ... most of it stays to the north and west. We probably have to wait until Monday into Tuesday for our soaking. As long as it comes eventually. 

We probably have a shot at something tomorrow night. Euro and ukie still seem way overdone

My guess is this weekend will be predominantly dry. Especially tomorrow. 

I see 2 little cells that popped up. One in Bergen one over Queens

Icon crushes LI and ct with 5+

12 minutes ago, Feen said:

Kinda chilly for May it feels like. Currently 69

Very average day

It does specify both afternoons as when showers are likely but I think right now it's too difficult to pinpoint 

Part of the problem with these forecasts is it will say 70% chance of showers Saturday and Sunday but end up raining for a total of 4 or 6 hours.  I see lots of cancellations of weekend events already

Just now, dWave said:

Working at the 5 boro bike tour I hope that's true for Sunday. Or at least limited to an occasional light shower.

Either way it's not going to be 5 days straight of rain

Gfs weekly rainfall

15 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yikes!  Hoping the GFS is closer to correct. 7" of rain would be terrible.

Euro's probably overdone but it has been pretty consistent with 3"+ from Saturday through Tuesday 

Gfs vs euro

2 minutes ago, Picard said:

That's going to be exciting in a couple of hours if that holds together.  Derecho?
That line had it's origins at least as far back as western Ohio.

Supposed to die out

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That would be fantastic. Build up the soil moisture in our warm season source region. This way maybe we can actually have a severe season this year. With all the wind and jet dynamics maybe we will we can get some EML high wind events. Been a long, long time since we saw one of those classic region wide squall lines that survives all the way to the coast. 

Gfs only has half an inch for the next 10 days