Stormlover74

Just now, Fresh cold air said:

Hilarious that snow showers are bringing 2+ feet lol!

Could be heavy?

47 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said:

We gotta find a way to get the park to 10 inches.  Bastardi still thinks March 11th through April 10th will have wild moments lol.  Keep expectations low and maybe we can preserve the statistic of never back to back winters in nyc with single digit snowfall.

Unfortunately it's just rain

Nam keeps giving us an inch+ for Saturday. Gfs and other models much drier/south and east

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So amazing, even though it was really bad.  I guess it could happen again since it also seems to have happened in January 2008 lol

 

Jan 08 we didnt have cold air in place and we were relying on precip on the back side.  Many of the models didn't have snow. I think the gfs and nam were on their own 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what caused this huge bust I wonder and could it happen like that again if that storm happened in this era?

I remember hearing thunder and seeing lightning and seeing heavy rain and then I knew we were done lol

The complete reverse bust of February 1989

We actually had a bust like that again in January 2008.

I believe the secondary low formed too close to the coast and winds switched to the east southeast and before you know it we went from 28 and snow to 40 and rain

I know @SnowGoose69 has a better explanation 

Secondary line forming

36 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Developing squall line not intense at moment, runs Utica-Binghamton-wCXY. Will be near PA-NJ border by 7-8 pm and NYC around 9 pm.

There may be an arctic front about an hour behind it then temps will really begin to fall fast. 

Possible gusts to 55 mph but 35-45 more probable for most. 

Looks rather unimpressive unless it's in that eastern PA radar dead zone

Chipmunks are out in full force today

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I rather have snow and cold. Brrr.

Here you go

Even JB threw in the towel 

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

April 1982-- did you experience that one? That's my first clear snowstorm memory.

I don't recall it but there's pics of my brother and I in our Easter suits with piles of snow behind us

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Ya think!  Some real diehards this season.  Some are STILL hanging on for dear life thinking their forecasts will be vindicated with a cold and snowy March. 

Maybe they'll start to catch on and stop assuming every winter has to be a snowy one. The year they finally go below we'll get blasted

16 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

2009-2011 was stupid nuts. I was in Long Branch then North Brunswick for that period, moving to my present location for 2012. Apparently 09-10 my current location had 74 inches, which is ludicrous. 

Vivid memory of driving up to pick my wife up at her house near East Brunswick in early / mid Feb 2010 to be with her for my bday that year, during a storm that had at least ten inches on the ground at the time I was heading toward her. I’ve never been bothered by driving in snow, and for whatever reason that memory sticks out vividly. 

I've been fortunate to live in other places during some of their best winters and also live here during our best winters as well. Experienced the epic 93-94 winter in state college including a 3 foot snowpack in early March. Lived outside Chicago for one winter but it happened to be during the Jan 99 blizzard. Unfortunately I spent most of the 96 blizzard on a bus headed back to school so I did miss experiencing the bulk of that one.  And I'm old enough to remember the blizzard of 83 as my first real memory of a snowstorm

Here we go again lol

15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Next Wednesday looks very warm. Maybe too many clouds for 70, but at least well up into the 60s. 

Can't wait. Snowless cold is useless. Basically all of next week looks mild

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe a C+ if we made it to at least 20 inches of snow for the season?

Eh maybe but that's not happening for central park

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and maximizing our potential (or nearly so anyway) is why this winter should be rated a C-.

If that band with the heavy snow was 30 miles north, it would go straight to B+

Nah too much warmth and lack of snow cover to be higher than a C even in area close to average. Maybe for the interior where they cashed in multiple times in January 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Extreme skepticism should have been applied when a winter with zero cold air and zero snowcover across the nation is suddenly expected to turn cold/snowy for a month....

Maybe people will learn something but I'm guessing most won't. Either way we had 2 good events during a hostile pattern so we should never cancel an event that doesn't look great or assume a pattern will flip to favorable and even if it does that it will automatically produce.

And my snowhole has officially filled in 

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NYC undermeasured in January 1996 and Philadelphia overmeasured in that storm.

It might be more like January 2016, which had a strong component of extra moisture.

 

Why do you think they overmeasured?

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this month will end up with avg temps much above normal and snowfall above normal in some areas in NJ especially

And a fairly dry month as well. If you saw <2" of liquid and +5 you wouldn't expect much snow yet here we are 

Down to 19

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Snow ratio time. I thought it was 15-20:1, but we actually got 22:1 - damn!  Got 11798 cc of snow melted down to just 530 cc of liquid, so the 11.25" was only 0.5" QPF.

Yep like forky said the moisture didn't overperform it was the ratios within that band