Stormlover74

16 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

2009-2011 was stupid nuts. I was in Long Branch then North Brunswick for that period, moving to my present location for 2012. Apparently 09-10 my current location had 74 inches, which is ludicrous. 

Vivid memory of driving up to pick my wife up at her house near East Brunswick in early / mid Feb 2010 to be with her for my bday that year, during a storm that had at least ten inches on the ground at the time I was heading toward her. I’ve never been bothered by driving in snow, and for whatever reason that memory sticks out vividly. 

I've been fortunate to live in other places during some of their best winters and also live here during our best winters as well. Experienced the epic 93-94 winter in state college including a 3 foot snowpack in early March. Lived outside Chicago for one winter but it happened to be during the Jan 99 blizzard. Unfortunately I spent most of the 96 blizzard on a bus headed back to school so I did miss experiencing the bulk of that one.  And I'm old enough to remember the blizzard of 83 as my first real memory of a snowstorm

Here we go again lol

15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Next Wednesday looks very warm. Maybe too many clouds for 70, but at least well up into the 60s. 

Can't wait. Snowless cold is useless. Basically all of next week looks mild

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe a C+ if we made it to at least 20 inches of snow for the season?

Eh maybe but that's not happening for central park

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and maximizing our potential (or nearly so anyway) is why this winter should be rated a C-.

If that band with the heavy snow was 30 miles north, it would go straight to B+

Nah too much warmth and lack of snow cover to be higher than a C even in area close to average. Maybe for the interior where they cashed in multiple times in January 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Extreme skepticism should have been applied when a winter with zero cold air and zero snowcover across the nation is suddenly expected to turn cold/snowy for a month....

Maybe people will learn something but I'm guessing most won't. Either way we had 2 good events during a hostile pattern so we should never cancel an event that doesn't look great or assume a pattern will flip to favorable and even if it does that it will automatically produce.

And my snowhole has officially filled in 

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

NYC undermeasured in January 1996 and Philadelphia overmeasured in that storm.

It might be more like January 2016, which had a strong component of extra moisture.

 

Why do you think they overmeasured?

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this month will end up with avg temps much above normal and snowfall above normal in some areas in NJ especially

And a fairly dry month as well. If you saw <2" of liquid and +5 you wouldn't expect much snow yet here we are 

Down to 19

5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Snow ratio time. I thought it was 15-20:1, but we actually got 22:1 - damn!  Got 11798 cc of snow melted down to just 530 cc of liquid, so the 11.25" was only 0.5" QPF.

Yep like forky said the moisture didn't overperform it was the ratios within that band

So basically the models that had the narrow band did fine then. We were mostly going off 10 or possibly 15:1. Nobody expected 20 or 30:1 which ultimately made the difference between 6 and 12"

It's melting like a 50 degree day in april

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’ll remember this epic band for a while 

The great weenie band bust of 2024

Reminds me of a more intense version of the 2/8/94 storm. 2 to 4 for most but a narrow band along 78/80 of 8 to 12. Not as narrow as this one though

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

We still have a long way to go here in NYC to reach 2022 level. That January 2022 blizzard allowed for an 18-22” season total across NYC. We still have about 10” to go over here until we reach that amount. 

Yeah I only got 6 from that. 19 on the season

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Amazing how much our winter changed with this one week. About 14 inches for me between the two storms so our area went from way below average snowfall to now about average for the season. Awesome week! 

Yeah I think I just surpassed 2021-22 and I still we can see more before it's all said and done

Just now, MJO812 said:

It did

Had the band just under NYC

The fact it even showed a band is amazing but to almost nail it. It was only that one run though then it kinda lost it at 0z

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

You would hope what is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model like HRRR would be able to pick up on something like this, but no. Late last night it was still insisting only a few inches. 

The 18z gfs did better lol

They left my report out for some reason

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=okx&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Crazy. Can't believe I got 8 inches here when we were only expecting a few. This winter went from being terrible to not bad in the snowfall department for our area this week. 

Yeah when I stepped outside I couldn't believe it was that much.  I figured 4 or 5 eyeballing it. That's why you always need to get out there with the ruler

This was sort of like trying to forecast rainfall amounts in a thunderstorm except most people have no idea if they got half an inch or 1". If most people get a thunderstorm and some don't it's certainly not a bust.

But with snow if you're not in that range people will say bust. But how do you forecast for this? Most people saw 2 to 4 but some saw 3x as much nearby. You can't just say 2 to 10 or 2 to 4 with isolated amounts of 8 to 12

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The universe always evens it out somehow lol

Seems that way. This winter will have a very strange looking snowfall distribution though 

Has central park made it to double digits yet?