PackGrad05

I know that a difference of a tenth of an inch could make things worse or better, but we are really splitting hairs at this point. There will be power outages, treacherous roads, and super cold temperatures, especially early in the week. Folks should prepare for the high-end amounts (which I believe they have) and just hope it underperforms.

Even if maze is right, really doesn’t change any impacts for Sunday or Monday. Roads will be bad. Power outages scattered. Tuesday morning refreeze. .

By models he means European. Bc that’s all he ever referenced. .

HRRR is very cold for central NC and shows a long duration freezing rain event.

Temperatures may go slightly above freezing for a few hours, but quickly go below again after sunrise.... The high temperature may occur in the middle of the night....

THIS. Even in Raleigh, temp drops from 34 back to the upper 20s before noon.

After 12 hours of frozen precipitation.

I know you're being hyperbolic, but that 34 degree rain will hardly wash it all away.

the GFS still shows over 12 hours of precipitation in central NC with temps below freezing. That's a mess.

GFS has been the most consistent by far. So it is either right or way wrong. Brad P even mentioned his concerns with EURO output.

00Z GFS looks similar to previous.

Depends on if surface temps stay above freezing or dip down below.

That trend has been there since last night. The EURO began showing temperatures getting to freezing or just above freezing sunday night in Wake County. But the temperature drops below freezing again as night progresses and monday morning approaches.

That was the first sun angle post. Now we just need the gulf storms robbing moisture post. .

I think the HRRR looks fine. Shows the CAD digging in and begins to show the interaction of the low with the CAD, initiating precipitation in our area. It is in line with the other models that go out further.

This is true. I personally cut them in half based on what I've experienced. I think they get the "zone" right, but the amounts are overdone.

Looks like the 18Z EURO is still struggling with depicting sleet, as Brad P mentioned in his vlog.

Onset of precipitation is yet to be finalized. HRRR should help nail that down. Some models still show early onset .

The NWS graphic with ice total posted above is from their automated site. A similar one was posted last night. Be careful with that. .

Typically what you look for is the size of the warm nose (above freezing layer) in the mid levels. If it is a very small warm nose with a robust lower level still below freezing, it is typically sleet. If it is a much larger warm nose that extends close to surface, freezing rain.

Posted this on January 20. I'm still going with it. It was based on meteorological analysis of models and data at the time, combined with over 40 years of experience in this region. Interested to see new model output, especially more high res later today.

The EURO QPF really didn't change much except compared to the previous run. The runs before those were showing around 1.5". It went back to around 1.5" after briefly bumping to close to 2" on the 00Z. The average has always been 1-2"

It is turning into a traditional cad signature (maybe slightly stronger) that has an eastern edge oriented sw to ne roughly parallel with 85. These events favor a mix for central NC and more rain I95 east. There will be a very large gradient over wake with some parts of wake having the possibility of limited ice. Possibility, not guaranteed at this point. Not surprisingly, it appears to be trending more and more toward a climatologically favored solution. Which was my fear 2-3 days ago when the models showed the snow anomalies. Regardless of the reason whether it is strength of the high or the low scouring out the mid and lower levels, this is not the way central NC gets a big snowstorm. .

GFS increased liquid equivalent for Raleigh through 06Z Monday. And temps are way colder than EURO.

Mike Maze just posted the 18Z Euro and showed the "transition to rain" trend at the end of it Sunday evening. They are leaning heavily toward the EURO. I don't think I've seen them post or discuss the GFS or any other model this whole week. With that said, Tuesday and Wednesday also could feature highs in the 40s. A day or two ago it was much colder. Can't wait to see 00Z data with HH data.