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ShawnEastTN

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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN

  1. ShawnEastTN
    Right! Also seen the inverse in recent memory, think in February same year plateau got major icing event a snow event preceded it I think in 2015 or 16 NWS started the day with knoxville forecast of .5" - 1" as the event neared they continually updated amounts all day by that night they issued a graphic of 10"-12" knoxville, Chattanooga got 10" was a huge bust in the positive. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  2. ShawnEastTN
    I've always been partial to the RGEM it seemed to be in years past better at sniffing out trailing pieces of energy. I think it did a better job at sniffing out the trailing energy that made the event at the start of the month over perform for most folks. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  3. ShawnEastTN
    Lol they cut accumulations from lower elevations all together in their afternoon update. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  4. ShawnEastTN
    Peachtree City just expanded their Winter Weather Advisory to include areas outside the mountains of North Georgia all the way down to far northern Atlanta suburbs. Think they might have been caught off guard to the snow showers making that far south. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  5. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah I see that all the time with snow where I live. Sometimes nothing on the radar for me from MRX, Hytop, or Nashville but snow falling.
  6. ShawnEastTN
    Really impressed with the amount of upstream moisture still to work through. Still good moisture all the way up in to Illinois and Indiana rotating this direction.
  7. ShawnEastTN
    Agree, makes sense considering the good valley flakage here. Normally in NW flow I get very fine flakes that are pretty dried out if I get anything at all. Today I've gotten off and on fluffy flakes that just didn't feel NW flow like. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  8. ShawnEastTN
    First sort of moderate snow, honestly never expected this in the valley. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  9. ShawnEastTN
    That's what I'm hoping for too. That's sort of how it started for me then over to flakes that vary in intensity off an on for the last 30 minutes or so. I'm hoping the RGEM is correct in depicting another lobe of energy making its way through after dark, think that will be our best shot in the low elevations at a little dusting since it'll be colder and squeeze out every drop of moisture. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  10. ShawnEastTN
    Finally getting just flakes now at a nice clip. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  11. ShawnEastTN
    Can confirm this radar return is mix rain snow and reaching the ground. Still sitting at 38/39 degrees. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  12. ShawnEastTN
    Had rain graupel/melted snow flake slop a few minutes ago on the Roane/Meigs county line area. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  13. ShawnEastTN
    0z RGEM seems to have slightly ticked up snow totals across the whole of the area. Running through frames to my untrained eye it seems to pick up on a piece of energy rotating down out of Southern Indiana around 14z monday into Kentucky then Tennessee through the evening and night, even appearing to over come downsloping in the great valley. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  14. ShawnEastTN
    Absolutely! At least it used to always be that way right about this timeframe we lose it and hope is dashed then triumphantly comes back about 24 hours later. Hopefully the case here but it is 2020 so probably going to evolve to massive severe event and no freezing precip except damaging hail. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  15. ShawnEastTN
    I smell a AN November coming on... Maybe that'll help with timing of colder blasts at climatological best opportunities of winter. Then again it seems over the last several years the correlations that seemed reliable in years past aren't as reliable today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  16. ShawnEastTN
    I definitely don't expect any watches as in Winter Storm Watches, I would not be surprised to see WWA for far southern counties after 0Z, I know MRX hugs Euro and it's thermals are not great but with neighboring CWA pressure for continuity and the model trends I could see it, however it's far more likely tomorrow after 12z. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  17. ShawnEastTN
    I'd say it's possible southern valley tonight after 0z, SPS at minimum, but more likely by 12Z tomorrow if modeling by NAM holds and globals trend as they have in small steps today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  18. ShawnEastTN
    Morristown's first guess. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  19. ShawnEastTN
    I think I remember a handful of those over the years, those are the ones that I remember Morristown having to continually up their forecast snow totals for during the actual events. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  20. ShawnEastTN
    Would be awesome if we can get that NNE wind down the valley during this event, those have been life savers for these scenarios in the past. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  21. ShawnEastTN
    Daytime events this time of year can be harder, but generally if they start pre-dawn or right around dawn they have a far better chance than if they start later in the day. 6-7am is usually the coldest part of the day if we get the clouds and precip falling during that window it can stall the temps keeping them from rising especially if good precip rates. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  22. ShawnEastTN
    Just hit the 1" mark imby today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  23. ShawnEastTN
    Started raining IMBY according to my weather station at 4am (northern Meigs county) currently since it started I'm sitting at .72 inches for the day with rainfall rates bouncing between .12" up to as high as .29" an hour so far. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  24. ShawnEastTN
    I have a sneaking suspicion we'll see WWAs posted for at least the southern great valley if not southern and central great valley during the overnight. Peachtree City just issued for all of North Georgia including Atlanta. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  25. ShawnEastTN
    Crazy stuff, verbatim that puts just at or just under 13" of rain in my back yard over 10 days. Being winter there just isn't anything to drink up that water from the soil. Could make last February's flooding look trivial. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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