ShawnEastTN

A little wrap around moisture in the valley


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Yep some dry flurries my way here and there in the wind. Trapped low level moisture falling temp squeezing it out.

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It was almost ridiculously low for my area. It was so consistently low I questioned what in the world it was blending? Not any of the models I was checking.

Same here, technically got 4 times the amount modeled IMBY. I think it's a great concept for modeling but I think bias and climatology at least in some instances are possibly over emphasized in it's calculations, and maybe not emphasized enough in other situations.

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Talk to me about the trailing wave tonight. Would that effect Knoxville or just the boarder counties north of Knoxville? If the DGZ is low and saturated, a good NW CAA might be enough for high ratios.


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Could if the energy is stout enough valley locations could get involved and under banding. Yesterday there were advisories issued in Iowa and Minnesota as it was diving south they have since ended but up that way it was moisture starved so that was impressive for a moisture starved disturbance in an area that doesn't have elevation to aid in lift. As we know our mountains are great a 1 thing, that being trapping low level moisture. If enough lingers it could be a nice surprise event for even the central valley.

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Something im curious about is the clipper tonight/early morning. In similar situations like this with departing storm with clipper/energy on its heels there is often left over low level moisture from the storm for the clipper/energy to interact with and can make for an over producing event.

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@PowellVolz Not sure if it's energy transfer or if it's ptype changing from higher reflective ptypes to lesser reflective like sleet changing to snow. Active reports of snow falling still as far west as Oxford MS and near Jackson TN.

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Full mix snow, sleet, rain Meigs/Roane line.

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Only if she 5’3”

Ha ha

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34.5/32. Probably can't go much lower without precip causing the cooling.  It's gonna be eternity waiting on the band behind the low and hoping it holds together as modeled. 

Wish I had your numbers... 38.7/36.1

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We need the ULL to over preform correct?


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We need a lot of different things, track being probably primary issue to strength, don't want the surface low tracking too close. We want dynamic cooling to be stronger than any effects of warm nose and/or downsloping (if you are in the Eastern valley). We want the cold to filter in fastest possible.

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38 here and rain with what seems like partly melted flakes mixed in just started here.

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0z NAM non kuchera:

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0z NAM is running looks pretty good Knox county west and south. Looks like downsloping delays precip east of Knox for a time. Out to 25.

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That is wild

My PWS recorded the shockwave, Tellico and Blunder report theirs did too. Pretty awesome!

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Correct, the way the cold is wrapping in Memphis down to Western MS will changeover before NE AR

It's pretty fascinating areas in southern Illinois are still above freezing while western central Mississippi is below freezing. It's colder 100 miles south of Memphis than it is 100 miles north of Memphis. Here is roughly the freezing line.

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Interesting…




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They had to convert a lot of winter weather advisories to winter storm warnings in Arkansas the storm way over performed for a lot of areas that were not expected to see anything at all or very little.

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Not something I see very often Chattanooga local TV WTVC News Channel 9 is not aligning with the NWS and channel 9 tends to be pretty conservative with snow but they are saying 1"-3" valley and 3"-6" or higher mountains. I think that is more reasonable than MRX forecast.

Haven't checked Knoxville local stations, I live in an area where both cities TV stations are available.

https://fb.watch/az7tq0RViK/

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All kind of confused my MRX forecast snow according to their map is 1-2" and Knoxville .5-1" Knox under advisory Roane/Meigs not, this really is bizarre even for normal MRX snow storms.

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Not sure if this has any effect what so ever, but alot of the Hires models ingest data from PWS networks and other real time data. Thus is from my PWS, recording the pressure wave from the Tonga explosion, would have been around time 12z to 18z data was being ingested.

My PWS caught it also! Didn't think about that data being ingested. Mine is also part of the NWS PWS program.

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Why is NBM so much stingier than all other guidance? 

Yeah I don't get it, maybe it'll verify and it will be the crowning achievement in modeling, but I think so much emphasis on climatological norms and bias will eventually lead to it being vastly wrong on a storm maybe this one, maybe not but eventually.

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For what it's worth 15z SREF plumes have increased for Knox and Chatt likey going to translate to a bump on 18 Z NAM.

Knox: roughly 1.5" mean, with big dog at 8"
Chatt: roughly 1.5" mean, with big dog at 7".

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Looks like the 18z HRRR has a little more consolidated low SW of Atlanta at hour 26:

Looks beautiful! Would take that any day of the week.

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Here in Knoxville we have been socked in with thick clouds all day long and temps are well below forcasted highs

Same here overcast and 43.

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In their defense tho...MRX has to rank among one of the worst places to be assigned as a Met...with the 1 million different microclimates they have to deal with

Right, but thats partly why I don't understand MRX insists for granular snowfall map forecasts down to .25 inch level. Most other offices do it old school with >1", 1-3, 3-6 and so on. Why they want to forecast .25 inches on a map is completely mind boggling. Give ranges that for one keeps you somewhat safe with your forecast and allows people to prep for higher amounts while also allowing for smaller amounts.

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So which is correct on the thermals lol...12z Euro vs 12z 3k NAM, almost identical..but different interpretation. 

Also keep in mind when looking at that NAM it's snowing where it's green in some areas as per point forecast soundings.

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Considering the issues with the valley, I think MRX should be an "upper-air equipped" forecast office.  Unless something has changed, I don't think that is the case.

Yes also honestly with so many micro climates they really should get those soundings at the very least from all major sections of the MRX region really more areas if possible, but minimum Chatt, Knox and Tri.

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