ShawnEastTN

Little comforting seeing my temp begin falling again. Reached 41 but in the last hour have dropped back to 39, DP 24 and still NE winds down the valley. Those winds have been stubborn NE direction. Can remember many many situations all the way back to my childhood where this winds out of the NE kept winter weather from switching to rain. Will it this time, who knows....

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Yeah the 20z HRRR looks like extended heavy sleet imby tonight.

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I wish I could have a drone I could legally fly up to 500mb at times like this, lol, for my own private soundings. 

Made it to 38 but it finally seems to be overcast still NE winds though. DP has come up a bit to 23.

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Yeah its frustrating, but I am noticing more and more high clouds the sunlight looks like it's getting more and more filtered. I don't think it'll much longer before clouds covering the region.

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Sitting at 33, DP 19, I can see clouds in the SW horizon... Those mother's need to start trucking this way.

Plus side my weather station is getting consistent winds from the NE.

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The purple has slid a little east because I’m in it now but wasn’t being.

 

 

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Already below my low of 19, at 18. If I'm counting rain drops tomorrow, it won't be through lack of the HPs effort. 
Arctic air still squeezing out moisture even as the sky clears. This video is looking SE and the sky has already cleared across the valley:
 
 
I don't know that I can remember a situation like this. Arctic air sweeping in, moisture coming back tomorrow. Skies are clearing and we should get some hours of radiational cooling before the high clouds move back in. 
 
 

In regards to temps tomorrow based on lows tonight, some areas are already at their predicted low. Crossville is predicted for 14 and that's been their high today. It's 18 here with 12 predicted. Knox is predicted to get to 20 and it's only 26 there now. 

AFD is up from MRX

About over it at this point. Glad for the often shafted western areas, but for MBY, this winter has been a little bit of a disappointment. We finally had the fabled -NAO, during one of the best climo times for us and, even at some elevation on the plateau, I was dealing with mixing and boundary layer issues. It seems to help the pattern, but it needs arctic air to redirect our way. An example of how important the Pacific pattern is. Yeah the NAO kept us from being too warm, but I would prefer an occasional torch at this point that to the marginal BS we've had.  It's been so cloudy. I miss the sun and the stars.  I think I would trade every event up to this point, to be in the bullseye for this upcoming storm. Like tnweathernut, these marginal, nickle and dime events are getting old to me. I want a real winter storm. But it seems like I back into one marginal event a year, that falls out in my favor.  Will the AMO change things up in the next decade? 

Does ENSO even matter any more? Like I posted above, we've had the same pattern problems in FEB with every ENSO state. 

It def, does seem like the SSW had an impact, but to be honest, I'm not sure there's much point in chasing them, other than to note that 3 - 4 weeks after one, we could see more blocking, if the base state is receptive. 

Do we need a Bond or Heinrich Event at this point? 

Like Old Ed Rupp used to say on WBIR, "Come on, Spring!" 

 

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Still mixing here but trend seems to be larger and larger flakes.

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Heavy mix mostly sleet and snow.

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Seems to be escalating quickly, mostly sleet now and heavy.

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Rain/Sleet mix here now

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[mention=11228]ShawnEastTN[/mention] is it doing anything? Haven’t seen him on either, must be sharing a beer with Holston.

MRX discussion update:

"
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 1025 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... Downsloping SE flow has kept most of the region dry this evening with most of the precip falling as virga. There has been occasional light rain observed in the far S Valley with snow and sleet at times in SW NC. Latest RAP soundings have further backed off on the warm nose except for along the E TN mountains into extreme SE TN and SW NC where some warming occurs around 850 mb before 08Z, but due to all the virga, expect sleet and ice amounts to be very light on the order of a trace to 0.04 inches. We are essentially running out of time to see much mixed precip before the colder air arrives. The mid/upper shortwave responsible for bringing the colder air will cross the region from 06-10Z with an associated cold front pushing across the region. As this occurs, the region will get under a coupled upper jet structure between the right entrance of a 130-140 kt 300 mb jet streak over the central Appalachians and the left exit of a 120-130 kt 300 mb jet streak over GA/SC. This will lead to strong Q vector convergence and frontogenetic forcing as the shortwave/cold front crosses the region, so expect any rain/mix to quickly change to snow in the post frontal CAA, first on the Plateau through SW VA after 05Z, then across the valley through the rest of the area from W to E. Despite the dynamics, HREF guidance shows this band of moderate to heavy snow moving through pretty rapidly. This fast movement combined with the limited precip earlier this evening has led to decreased snowfall accumulations forecasted across SW NC, the E TN mountains, and the valley. However, HREF guidance points to the band pivoting across the N Plateau through SW VA the longest, so slightly increased snowfall forecast amounts up there overnight. The current warnings and advisories remain unchanged for tonight"

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Those are probably pretty close to you [mention=11228]ShawnEastTN[/mention], anything down that way? 

39/22 currently. After reading the MRX disco I think it's going to snow here.  
It was actually nicely detailed but I did have to read it a few times.  

I'm going to remain optimistic, I think nearly all of the East Tennessee Valley, say 95% will see some accumulation, and I think most areas of the valley get above the inch mark and at least half get above 2".

I'm not wishcasting, i personally think MRX became gun-shy with the last couple events that have made them swing too conservative in their forecast out of fear, not to mention the event not occurring during the work week there is less pressure on them if their forecast bust over rather than under. Not that I blame them because it they get a lot of flack. I think the potential of MRX having to up snow totals repeatedly through the next 16 hours is high especially after the event gets under way.

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Chattanooga met Bill Race seems bullish for Chatt on FB, says he thinks this looks like a classic 1"-3" valley snow.

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MRX will either jump on the Euro and we'll see advisories in the valley or they call it an outlier and double-down on virtually nothing on the ground from morristown down the valley. With temps way under what was originally expected I think that will have a huge impact on increased chances of valley accumulation.

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33 cold rain here after heavy sleet this afternoon.

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I've had heavy sleet for about the last hour enough to coat the ground and my deck is dangerous...

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This is reaching the ground in the valley, have a nice little snow shower occurring at the moment imby.

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