ShawnEastTN

My temp starting to fall now after being stubborn at 47 for hours, down 3 degrees in the last 10 minutes. That sleet event either pulled down cold or it marks the boundary where temps begin crashing.

Edit: Wind has also switched to the N, been southerly until now.

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Huntsville radar looking like it may be blossoming 

Think this area has sleet/semi-melted sleet based on what I am experiencing.

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Still 47 with rain the back edge keeps redevolping over me, though I notice a difference in the rain from an hour ago and now. Now the rain seems weighted heavier as in sleet that melted or mostly melted in the lower levels think the cold is deepening above me now (Ten Mile, Roane/Meigs county line)

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Light rain still on very back edge of precip Meigs/Roane county line 47, barometer still falling winds still SSE.

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10:45 MRX Updtate...

.DISCUSSION...Showers have increased dramatically across middle Tennessee aheadof mid level trough as intense low pressure area over the westernGreat Lakes moves into southern Canada and the associated coldfront is now moving into west Tennessee late this evening. A lineof showers and thunderstorms was moving through west Tennessee atthis time.Strong south to southeast winds from the pressure gradient fromhigher pressure over western North Carolina to the lower pressurewest of the eastern mountains was producing wind gusts alreadyabove 60 mph and winds to around 35 to 40 mph have occurred inisolated spots in the valley. Have sped up timing of the higherpops slightly with update from southwest to northeast and bumpedlows up a degree or two over southern and central valley.Temperatures are being held up in many places by the winds andlows may have already occurred over the northeast half of thearea...or will occur around sunrise when cold front moves throughwestern sections of the forecast area. Updated forecast sent. Willupdate WSW and SPS products shortly.

PLEASE!!!! Praying for this haha!

If it backs up anymore at 0z, MRX is gonna have a tough call to make

The Euro hopefully has a few more westward creeps in it. Was it faster cold or a bigger precip shield?

That front is pretty impressive, temperature swing of 30 degrees across a relative short distance Oklahoma City to Little Rock.

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The RGEM is capturing the likely secondary snow better than the GFS/NAM/Euro. The HRRR is capturing it too. The RGEM has been consistent for two days that snow will linger. These major league Arctic airmasses are able to squeeze everything out, the snow growth zone -15c temps get low in the atmosphere and create the snow that falls that doesn't even show up on the radar because it's falling from so low in the atmosphere. 

I know, I know..it's the HRRR in la la land (end of it's run)..but something interesting. As the center of the trough passes by, there is an enhancement of snow over the valley. Something to watch for on the other short range modeling. With the way everything is modeled, and such a vigorous trough (evident by the numerous banding features on all short range models), while the wrap around low moisture is almost locked in, I think there is a "potential" to bust high across the valley back to middle TN on the forcing from the trough itself (wringing out all available moisture/ terrain enhancement for the plateau adding even more lift/ and the high snow ratios shown)....but could be wishful thinking too lol

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I guess with the front now bisecting Arkansas approaching the Mississippi River this really is going to rapidly move into nowcast obs mode. We going to continue on this thread or someone opening an obs thread?

Edit to add: speaking of which 20 degree difference between southern AR and NW AR.

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Def a fan of the RGEM for my area. Everything else is too little too late for most of MoCo:

 
Really interested to see if something like those convective bands verify under the lapse rates of the upper low. 

My guess MRX will upgrade watch areas to warning, and issue advisory for plateau, and central valley, maybe advisory for Southern valley but probably SPS, mostly out of concern for slick spots from black ice and dusting.

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Looks like Jackson KY NWS pulled the warning trigger, and also issued advisories to the west of the warning.

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I didn't even recognize you had posted them, but that's okay, no need to apologize at all, especially to me if my post came across as provocative. I sometimes glance at them to see where the amounts over the last four runs have trended, but I never pay attention to the actual amounts, if that makes sense. 

It's a cynical view of mine, but I pay little mind to the CMC and RGEM. Its cold bias is so overdone that I disregard it just about every time. It's good to show what's possible, but when does that ever pan out?

Off topic, but I remember that event.  Went to bed under a WSWarning calling for 8-12 the next day.  Woke up and had been upped to 12-16" and thought "here we go"...........  Ended with a trace.  lol

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The RGEM is still snowing over the area up into Christmas morning. Actually building nicely upstream in Kentucky by 10am Christmas morning with light snow.

Latest update from kmrx has no accumulation for Knoxvegas. Not surprising though.

Peachtree City just expanded their Winter Weather Advisory to include areas outside the mountains of North Georgia all the way down to far northern Atlanta suburbs. Think they might have been caught off guard to the snow showers making that far south.

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11 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Something that’s interesting to me is the snow is falling much harder than what the radar is indicating IMO.


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Yeah I see that all the time with snow where I live.  Sometimes nothing on the radar for me from MRX, Hytop, or Nashville but snow falling.

Really impressed with the amount of upstream moisture still to work through.  Still good moisture all the way up in to Illinois and Indiana rotating this direction.

I believe this is all still synoptic snow rather than NW flow snow.  My precip is moving basically west to east and it looks like there's even a SW component to it at times.  Looks like the NW flow snow is out west still with the streamers pointed towards Nashville. 

First sort of moderate snow, honestly never expected this in the valley.

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