ShawnEastTN

What is interesting to me if snow amounts are more even a small amount more say 3" with the wind as strong as its going to be and the powdery nature of this type of snow, there could be times of serious visibility issues with near whiteout conditions from blowing snow. Would be amazing to see if we end up with more than currently forecast.

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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Nashville TN242 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022TNZ005>011-023>034-059-062>066-078-080-220900-/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0010.221223T0000Z-221223T1200Z//O.EXT.KOHX.WC.W.0001.221223T0400Z-221223T1800Z/Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Williamson-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Warren-Van Buren-Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,Byrdstown, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville,McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville,Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage,Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown,Allardt, Franklin, Brentwood, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne,Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, McMinnville,and Spencer242 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AMCST FRIDAY......WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO NOONCST FRIDAY...* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 15 below to 25 below zero. For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow accumulations of one half to two inches...with local amounts of 3 inches along the northern Cumberland Plateau. Winds will gust as high as 35 mph.* WHERE...roughly the northern half of Middle Tennessee.* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Warning, from 10 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Given the fast rate of cooling behind the arctic front...some flash freezing will be possible whereby all exposed wet surfaces will freeze immediately.

I'm surprised MRX hasn't pulled the trigger, not so much about snow amounts, as much as the combination of flash freeze, light snow and wind chill combined makes for dangerous travel right at high travel days.

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MRX afternoon disco is up. I noticed my point forecast snow accumulation increased, not by much from less than .5", to less than an inch so decided to check if they had the discussion up, MRX mentions they were slightly increasing snowfall amounts due to WPC guidance. Good read though.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1



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Also have to take into account the downsloping off the plateau. For east Tennessee area, the only places i look to have anything of possible significance is the plateau and east of Hwy 411 toward the foothills/mountains. 

I think downsloping plays a part in most anafrontal situations, but the flow in most anafrontal situations is more w to nw. The flow post fropa is mostly modeled as due north, while that still contends with downslope, I question how much it affects the situation being from that direction instead of W to NW. I think this storm is a unicorn of sorts without a standard analog to compare. I think most of what we are seeing with qpf as modeled with the southern extent of the precip generally speaking is that its drying up as it moves east.

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I think a lot of models are slowing the cold up as it hits the western Plateau, just enough for the moisture to race away from the front.

Always the issue, holding out hope that this fropa is so strong that it'll be as if there is no terrain impediment with the plateau. Can't recall an analog likely due to how infrequently an arctic front of this caliber comes through. Wish I had an analog to point to in regard to plateau not slowing the cold, hoping and even expecting it'll bulldoze its way through faster than pretty much all events in recent memory.

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January 2014 had crazy cold too, I had to travel to Michigan to a hospital for a family member and that was the winter when every media outlet began saying "Polar Votex" in relation to the cold in an almost doomsday type term really talking it up. The day I left Michigan for the drive back to Tennessee it was -15 air temp in Detroit with howling winds and blowing snow windchill in the 30 to 40 below zero range. Got home in Tennessee that night and it was -1 air temp in Knoxville.

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GFS looks faster with the cold another 25mi faster east move like it was doing yesterday.

Yeah it actually looks better than previous runs to me. Moisture looks deeper and more of a SW fetch over the local region than previous runs. Odd looking even with that shape of the precip shield over Tennessee but a good look.

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Long range NAM clowns, particularly of the Earl Barker variety (if I'm remembering his name correctly) were high quality entertainment in years past.

Oh the DGEX model!!! I had forgotten that all together until you said Earl Barker. That thing put out insane clowns. I miss those, they used to get folks so worked up!!

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RGEM wasn't good at all. Just bone dry except for a small bullseye around the central plateau. Barely gets .2 total qpf for most areas. 

I'm riding the GFS until this time tomorrow. Then I'll start hugging the meso models in particular the RGEM, but I'm a bit unnerved at the RGEM really want to see it come around because it used to score well inside 48 hours in particular.

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I had no idea. I assumed it would be like Iowa, Nebraska etc…. Makes me wonder now if there’s hills in states I thought where basically flat. That’s a beautiful picture though


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Pretty much 3/4 of Minnesota is exactly how you picture it. The hilly area is mostly far northern Minnesota especially nearest to Lake Superior in the Arrowhead/Iron region.

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Minnesota has valleys?


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Montana, there are so many 'M' states and their abbreviations are so similar. Though Minnesota does have valleys, albeit low relief valleys.

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Clipper looks super stout behind the storm also on the 0z GFS.

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Actually not a bad GFS run. Snow totals were up. It looks like the cold is coming faster if you look at the trends. 

Best run of the GFS in the last 24 hours!

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Anyone notice the clipper on the 18z GFS after the storm. Would be nice to get snow while we've been below freezing for a few days. With the deep cold behind this system a clipper can drop a nice high ratio snow.

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MRX is starting to downplay the backside snow. Not that they ever played it up or anything but they are saying the mods are trending away from snow. I haven’t been able to looked deep into the mods but reading this board gave me the impression that we held steady or maybe got a little better today.


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Agree, guess they view GFS as a bit of an outsider or 18z trended less.

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Something else to note until this powerhouse storm gets through models will have a hard time seeing any clippers or energy diving out of the plains behind the storm. Think we still have potential for something after the storm, but before troughing eases back.

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One thing that will also help (or hurt) is we are dealing with mid 40’s for several days before the snow starts instead of mid 60’s which is more typical. My point is there will be a wet ground with temps falling into the mid teens with snow showers. A 1/2 to 1” of snow will make the roads a disaster.


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Agree, this will probably be the worst rapid freeze up we've had in many, many years. The wet surfaces will rapidly become encased in ice then covered in whatever amount of snow we get. This could be one of the worst events for roadways in quite a long time and of course occurring on a high travel period. I fully expect winter weather products to be issued by all the regions NWS offices for the freeze up during high travel days even if we get only an inch or less snow.

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Usually in anafrontal snow chasing rain situations if you are in the Great Valley of East Tennessee you painfully watch and wait for the cold to spill over the plateau it creates a daming that slows the cold and allows moisture to exit before the cold spills over meaning we often get ripped off. However I think this may be the strongest arctic front I can remember in at least a decade, and with the pressure gradient I don't think the plateau will hold the cold back and create the delay we often see. This likely has high potential to bust higher in the Great Valley than normal anafrontal events of the past, keeping in mind though that most anafrontal events for the valley of east Tennessee are dusting to an inch type of events for most, so to bust higher doesnt mean crazy amounts but still potentially higher than most anafrontal events. Kind of excited to see this transpire, definitely not our everyday arctic front scenario.

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Will be some nail biting for Michigan, Indiana.  But they are in play for a whopper of a storm.

Agree! There is a storm in history that resulted in one of largest maritime disasters in US history and the largest ever on the great lakes that resulted in 250 sailors deaths in 24 hours. It was named "The White Hurricane" and occurred in 1913, good read BTW if reading on it. While weather forecasting is better than back in 1913 so wouldn't expect the maritime industry to be wrecked like that, but this storm could be a "White Hurricane" with those pressures modeled!! Crazy low pressure would likely be 30 foot waves on Lake Michigan and Huron also possible Superior, even here those NW winds will be howling as currently modeled. Wouldn't be surprised if as modeled, that most of the forum area would go under High Wind Warnings, mountains for sure but possibly even lower elevations.

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My concern is the cold overwhelming everything and it's cold but dry. I think we then wait until mid-end January for our next opportunity. I know it sounds crazy, but just my two cents 

Yeah my fear as well. The whole suppression city situation where storms are pushed to Cuba. However even in those scenarios the transitions at the beginning and end of the cold snap give chances historically.

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Sitting at almost 4" think I can get to 6 or higher by end of event. Been a really good event.

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Just saw lightning and nice long rumble. This storm has been pretty awesome so far! Little over 2"

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Small flakes imby, but man it's pouring it. Visibility is crazy low and the wind blows it around in curtains. Doesn't feel or look like a typical southern snow, feels very midwestern blowing snow type snow.

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Noticed when looking across my property towards light on my garage the trees look shiny almost like during the mixing and change over earlier, there may have been a brief bout of freezing rain as well. The trees are glistening. Currently sitting about .5" snow and 30 degrees.

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These returns are no joke!!

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