ShawnEastTN

Not sure if this has any effect what so ever, but alot of the Hires models ingest data from PWS networks and other real time data. Thus is from my PWS, recording the pressure wave from the Tonga explosion, would have been around time 12z to 18z data was being ingested.

My PWS caught it also! Didn't think about that data being ingested. Mine is also part of the NWS PWS program.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Why is NBM so much stingier than all other guidance? 

Yeah I don't get it, maybe it'll verify and it will be the crowning achievement in modeling, but I think so much emphasis on climatological norms and bias will eventually lead to it being vastly wrong on a storm maybe this one, maybe not but eventually.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

For what it's worth 15z SREF plumes have increased for Knox and Chatt likey going to translate to a bump on 18 Z NAM.

Knox: roughly 1.5" mean, with big dog at 8"
Chatt: roughly 1.5" mean, with big dog at 7".

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Looks like the 18z HRRR has a little more consolidated low SW of Atlanta at hour 26:

Looks beautiful! Would take that any day of the week.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Here in Knoxville we have been socked in with thick clouds all day long and temps are well below forcasted highs

Same here overcast and 43.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

In their defense tho...MRX has to rank among one of the worst places to be assigned as a Met...with the 1 million different microclimates they have to deal with

Right, but thats partly why I don't understand MRX insists for granular snowfall map forecasts down to .25 inch level. Most other offices do it old school with >1", 1-3, 3-6 and so on. Why they want to forecast .25 inches on a map is completely mind boggling. Give ranges that for one keeps you somewhat safe with your forecast and allows people to prep for higher amounts while also allowing for smaller amounts.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

So which is correct on the thermals lol...12z Euro vs 12z 3k NAM, almost identical..but different interpretation. 

Also keep in mind when looking at that NAM it's snowing where it's green in some areas as per point forecast soundings.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Considering the issues with the valley, I think MRX should be an "upper-air equipped" forecast office.  Unless something has changed, I don't think that is the case.

Yes also honestly with so many micro climates they really should get those soundings at the very least from all major sections of the MRX region really more areas if possible, but minimum Chatt, Knox and Tri.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I have this feeling I’m going to do well if temps are not an issue. To my knowledge, downsloping has never been an issue NW of 40. When we get those spring mountain wave events, it’s nothing for Sevierville to be 10-15° warmer than me.


.

Yes!! Exactly! This is what I'm saying. Usually that downsloping warmth doesn't bleed very far west or NW. Down this way it doesn't generally bleed out of Blount county into Knox or Loudon, and the angle I don't think will have much of Monroe county involved maybe far northeast Monroe near Blount line.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Dug more into the NBM..its running hourly but cant download the grib files unless you have the credentials. This system is a big test for it, uses the current conditions to reanalyze pretty much all the models solutions for the current time frame, then corrects the known bias that is being shown and applies that to the blending for each hourly update.

Yeah I don't have access to NBM.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I honestly think MRX should at least issue WWA for Knox, Loudon south. So much modeling showing that area getting potentially plastered with heavy snow potentially warning criteria snow. The only reason they don't is climatology suggests that shouldn't be the case but it wouldn't be the first time the western great valley and southern great valley score in a scenario like this.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Looks like lookout has some snow at the moment.

Don't tell MRX this, or any reports from John or Holston. They'll say it's just solidified rain.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Clicking on some of the soundings on Pivotal, it looks like some of the precip it is rendering as rain is borderline snow. I clikced on Knoxville on this map:

 
and got this sounding:

 
Looks like it may just be extremely shallow boundary layer warmth and not a warm nose. 

I have seen those temp differences in previous downsloping storms, where I'm at or below freezing on the Roane/Meigs line and go east toward the mountains and Maryville is close to 40 degrees. That explains a lot of models showing a strip of higher totals from McMinn and NNW with a sharp cutoff east towards the mountains.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

For what it's worth WPC's forecast track for the low. This was issued before 0z though so we'll see if they adjust their track.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I might go to Livingston


.

At this point you are better of chasing in Buffalo.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

You can see how the trailing system opens up the path for this to get pulled more NW vs 0z (weakness over KY/IL/IN..wouldn't put it past turning into a cutter west of the Apps before all is said and done.

Totally our luck it will become a GL cutter.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I get that this storm is difficult to forecast, but really surprised that NWS has issued absolutely nothing for the east TN Valley. I would expect at least a Hazardous Weather statement of some sort since we have the possibility of wintry precip in the area. It's just odd. 

Agree they should at least put out a SPS to get info out. The delay likely means it'll be winter weather advisory when we get in range for it 12 to 24 hours out.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

My favorite local met since Paul retired. He’s a good one. 

I still remember Paul when he said the word Bilzzard back in 93, he was the first TV met in Chatt to use the word in relation to that storm and he was mocked quite a bit for it until the 20" of snow with 6 foot drifts occurred. Would love to get to experience another blizzard of 93.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I don’t have access to the RGEM.  Do you have an accumulation map for it?  Did it stay with a Miller A look?

You can see the RGEM here or on pivitol weather.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The snow totals in valley are rising

I'd like to cash in. Wish we could trust a solution. Seems like now more than ever you can't trust any solutions. I don't remember it being this wonky a decade ago with models.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

There’s no way that verifies…right?

Lol it's not impossible considering the crazy model spread. Seriously this thing can go either way for a lot of folks. Could be a big giant bust or a massive surprise storm for many.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Wouldn’t imagine I would have a inversion issue either if Roan Co doesn’t.


.

Yeah if the issue isn't as much warm nose as it is downsloping over the mountains then if you are a county or do west of the mountain counties you should have better odds, again that's if warm nose is less of an issue. I would agree Knox county especially west and north Knox would be in better shape being further away from the downsloping winds.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Nws has posted a winter storm watch for mountains of east tn

Have a strong suspicion if modeling continues consistency by 12z tomorrow we'll see watches hoisted for all of Morristown probably including Chatt.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Not touching this one yet. I've been hurt before. Recently.

Same here man, last 2 storms were let downs not to mention really for MBY haven't had a snow more than an inch in a few years. Have had a couple 1" storms but not a good storm in some time.

Though on the other side of that coin all snow droughts eventually break, look at Nashville! They were in a snow dome for a long time and have reaped major rewards for their patience.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Oh ok. I don't really remember any ice storms here the last couple of years so maybe we got snow too or something else while other parts of town got ice. Really, the one in 2015 is the last one I can remember here but it also stood out because of how bad it was. We had two ice storms in the same week then with the second one on Saturday making it look like a tornado hit.

Yes that one in 15 was really bad in my neck of the woods also. That year if I remember all in the month of February imby we got 2 ice storms and a 10" snow all within a couple week period.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk