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ShawnEastTN

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Posts posted by ShawnEastTN

    Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Been sleeting here for about 30 minutes.  Hoping some more of this makes it off the plateau and into the valley.

    That's what I'm hoping for too. That's sort of how it started for me then over to flakes that vary in intensity off an on for the last 30 minutes or so. I'm hoping the RGEM is correct in depicting another lobe of energy making its way through after dark, think that will be our best shot in the low elevations at a little dusting since it'll be colder and squeeze out every drop of moisture. 

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    • Like 1

    Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    0z RGEM seems to have slightly ticked up snow totals across the whole of the area. Running through frames to my untrained eye it seems to pick up on a piece of energy rotating down out of Southern Indiana around 14z monday into Kentucky then Tennessee through the evening and night, even appearing to over come downsloping in the great valley.

     

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    December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    This is a little bit bantery, but it is a holiday, so why not? Aren't we in that weird window we sometimes notice between days 3 - 5 when models lose storms or flip-flop, only for them to pop back up. 
    Absolutely! At least it used to always be that way right about this timeframe we lose it and hope is dashed then triumphantly comes back about 24 hours later. Hopefully the case here but it is 2020 so probably going to evolve to massive severe event and no freezing precip except damaging hail.

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    • Haha 1

    Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I smell a AN November coming on... Maybe that'll help with timing of colder blasts at climatological best opportunities of winter. Then again it seems over the last several years the correlations that seemed reliable in years past aren't as reliable today.

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    NAM vs the Euro cage match storm, Feb 20 - 21

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I think this is going to be interesting... Dewpoints around the valley are intriguing. My dewpoint currently is 29, most locations from a line from Dayton to Athens and north are around or below freezing except nearest to the Eastern mountains and far southern valley where dewPoints are in the mid to upper 30's.

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    • Like 2

    February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I definitely don't expect any watches as in Winter Storm Watches, I would not be surprised to see WWA for far southern counties after 0Z, I know MRX hugs Euro and it's thermals are not great but with neighboring CWA pressure for continuity and the model trends I could see it, however it's far more likely tomorrow after 12z.

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    February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    There was a scenario several years back where modeling was not enthused at all about precip into Tennessee.  I remember Robert @ WxSouth ended up picking up on the inverted trough and in the end there was a decent snow from it.  I can't remember the year, but my recollection tells me the basics were familiar... (i.e. overrunning, inverted trough, no defined low, etc.)
    Does anyone else remember this event?
    I think I remember a handful of those over the years, those are the ones that I remember Morristown having to continually up their forecast snow totals for during the actual events.

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    February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I always try to looks at small details for any event in East TN. Mainly because the terrain can cause things to go unexpectedly wrong or sometimes in our favor. Looking at the NAM, the thing I like about this system is that low level winds over WNC are from a more easterly direction during the start of the system, while winds over the ETN valley are more northerly. This typically happens when we get an inverted trough induced along the mountains, which helps provide some low level lift and often produces more precip than modeled. This current situation is more subtle, but the characteristics are still there. It’s something to watch to see if precip trends upward as we go.
    Would be awesome if we can get that NNE wind down the valley during this event, those have been life savers for these scenarios in the past.

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    February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Daytime events this time of year can be harder, but generally if they start pre-dawn or right around dawn they have a far better chance than if they start later in the day. 6-7am is usually the coldest part of the day if we get the clouds and precip falling during that window it can stall the temps keeping them from rising especially if good precip rates.

     

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