ShawnEastTN

Ground turning white here as well this morning.

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MRX put out an update on FB. They are still saying one of the most difficult forecasts in several years, and seem to be expecting most change over to occur when the center passes to the east and wind shifts.

 

https://www.facebook.com/198704190160961/posts/3872454576119219/

 

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MRX 10pm update on FB:

 

10 PM EST Update:

 

Let's talk about uncertainty! Please understand that this is one of the more uncertain winter weather events that we've had to forecast for this area in several years. The temperature profile is borderline rain/snow and a degree either way can make a big impact on if snow or rain is falling at your location.

 

With southeast low-level winds tonight, winds are blowing up the mountain on the North Carolina side with cooling temperatures and some snow. On our side, it's blowing down the mountain and sinking with some slight warming. Rising air = cooling air and sinking air = warming air. Late tonight, as the surface low moves eastward, these southeast winds will turn toward the northeast. This will limit that warming on the Tennessee side of the mountains.

 

We will also have an upper low moving across the area. With rising air beneath the upper low, this will cool the air underneath it. Heavier precipitation and stronger rising air will cool the air more and make snow more likely across the valley.

 

In parts of the valley, some areas will get very little snow and some areas may get up to 2 to 3 inches depending on how much rain mixes in at your location. Valley locations around and northeast of Knoxville have the highest probability of seeing an inch or more of snow. What snow falls and accumulates will likely occur quickly. Most snow accumulation will occur within about a 3 hour period on Friday morning. There is high confidence that the higher elevations of the mountains will see heavy snow. This will be a heavy, wet snow with snow ratios closer to 6:1 or 8:1.

 

With the heaviest snow occurring during the morning commute, this may make travel difficult.

 

If you have some questions about the weather forecast or the science behind it, let's chat: comment below! If you're seeing snow where you are, please let us know, too.

 

https://www.facebook.com/198704190160961/posts/3872454576119219/

 

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This really isn't supposed to start in the Eastern areas till around 12am-2am correct?

Yes after midnight eastern side of the state further east the later the change over as per MRX time-frames with exception of high peaks of the mountains.

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37.1 light rain with occasional graupel/partly melted flakes. My temp dropped 2 degrees in the heavier mixed stuff earlier from 39 to 37, but my dewpoint climbed above freezing now at 33.8.

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This is probably the real stuff moving in now towards me:

Correlation Coefficient shows some mixing.
 
Let's see what we get

Yep just now swinging through here i am getting mixed rain graupel. More graupel when the rate increases more rain when it's lighter.

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Lookout Mtn Mping snow

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Holding at 38 dewpoint 31.

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Love hearing all these middle tennessee reports. Hearing reports from northern Alabama also, wouldn't be surprised if Huntsville doesn't issue WWA for northern AL before long.

 

Edit: Oops meant this to be in the OBS thread.

 

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Just saw a picture on the Nashville news of a full size snowman in Summertown. OHX has now expanded the WWA across their southern counties.

Yep looks like it's already over performing!

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Looks to me this is already beginning to over perform.

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Check out the photos on OHX that folks are posting from all over middle TN this evening. Some already picked up a quick inch who weren't supposed to get it.

https://www.facebook.com/121353247940968/posts/3614401791969412/

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OHX seemed caught a bit off guard by all the reports of snow in middle tennessee. Many folks in middle Tennessee already have more snow on the ground than forecast. Check out Nashville national weather service FB post. Folks posting video and pictures from all over middle TN.

 

https://www.facebook.com/121353247940968/posts/3614401791969412/

 

 

 

 

A friend of mine in Columbia TN reports half-dollar flakage.

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Definitely dry air to overcome. No precip but heavy virga. I know it sounds strange but it just feels colder under virga in the winter.

 

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I am valley about 8 miles or so from the eastern escarpment of the plateau. I can see the plateau across Watt Bar where I live.

 

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About to get this:

 

 

probably too dry at the lower levels though

 

Right on the edge of higher returns so far it's virga, but it seems to might be having an impact on temp though that could also be the setting sun.

 

 

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MPing has a snow report near Huntsville: 
 

Mping as far south as southwest Birmingham suburbs of mixed precip. Also looks like around Jackson TN rain snow mix reported.

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I've noticed that as well. Highest I've gotten today is 39, dewpoint still staying around 29/30.

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I guess as far as I see it it's safer to issue and express that there is still a possibility it doesn't come to fruition but issue to prepare the public. Say even 4 or 5 inches of heavy wet snow occur there are going to be power outages. You need to prepare people for the possibility. The Christmas Eve storm there were folks without power in knox county and elsewhere for 2 and 3 days. Which meant people not prepared with backup sources of heat.

 

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MRX have pulled the SPS. Might replace it with another SPS, or advisory or combination of the 2 coming this afternoon.

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It has high bust both ways in the valley. If low elevation doesn’t get the rates, it could be all rain. It ain’t warming up outside like I expected it to though.
 
 
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That is true, I just keep watching my dewpoint which has held relatively steady only wavering between 27 and 29 and not following the normal temperature curve. Winds have so far maintained a NE average imby also. Of course I expect a lot of that to change as we move into the event but still gives me pause as dewpoint and wind direction usually are my go to indicators for events like this where small differences can mean wet VS white.

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This is going to be such an interesting event to watch play out. Currently my weather station is reporting 35.7 degrees dewpoint of 29 and radar returns about 20 miles away as the crow flies. I think this one has high potential to bust high and be full of surprises.

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Same! It looks like it has reached downtown now as well
 

That appears to be heading my way at least scraping by me, I'm looking forward to that one been watching it since Nashville. What sucks for me is it will disappear from OHX radar soon and there is a hole when it comes to snow like that over Roane northen Rhea and northern Meigs that is hard to see. I need to switch between OHX, MRX, and Hytop to follow snow through my neck of the woods.

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Talk about healthy snow showers...

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