ShawnEastTN

Off topic, but I remember that event.  Went to bed under a WSWarning calling for 8-12 the next day.  Woke up and had been upped to 12-16" and thought "here we go"...........  Ended with a trace.  lol

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The RGEM is still snowing over the area up into Christmas morning. Actually building nicely upstream in Kentucky by 10am Christmas morning with light snow.

Latest update from kmrx has no accumulation for Knoxvegas. Not surprising though.

Peachtree City just expanded their Winter Weather Advisory to include areas outside the mountains of North Georgia all the way down to far northern Atlanta suburbs. Think they might have been caught off guard to the snow showers making that far south.

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11 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Something that’s interesting to me is the snow is falling much harder than what the radar is indicating IMO.


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Yeah I see that all the time with snow where I live.  Sometimes nothing on the radar for me from MRX, Hytop, or Nashville but snow falling.

Really impressed with the amount of upstream moisture still to work through.  Still good moisture all the way up in to Illinois and Indiana rotating this direction.

I believe this is all still synoptic snow rather than NW flow snow.  My precip is moving basically west to east and it looks like there's even a SW component to it at times.  Looks like the NW flow snow is out west still with the streamers pointed towards Nashville. 

First sort of moderate snow, honestly never expected this in the valley.

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Been sleeting here for about 30 minutes.  Hoping some more of this makes it off the plateau and into the valley.

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Finally getting just flakes now at a nice clip.

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Can confirm this radar return is mix rain snow and reaching the ground. Still sitting at 38/39 degrees.

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Had rain graupel/melted snow flake slop a few minutes ago on the Roane/Meigs county line area.

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0z RGEM seems to have slightly ticked up snow totals across the whole of the area. Running through frames to my untrained eye it seems to pick up on a piece of energy rotating down out of Southern Indiana around 14z monday into Kentucky then Tennessee through the evening and night, even appearing to over come downsloping in the great valley.

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This is a little bit bantery, but it is a holiday, so why not? Aren't we in that weird window we sometimes notice between days 3 - 5 when models lose storms or flip-flop, only for them to pop back up. 

I smell a AN November coming on... Maybe that'll help with timing of colder blasts at climatological best opportunities of winter. Then again it seems over the last several years the correlations that seemed reliable in years past aren't as reliable today.

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Just now, Jed33 said:

25 degree dewpoint here in NE Hamblen Co. The NE wind working it’s magic here in the valley for sure! 

Same here maintaining a good N NNE wind at 5 to 10 mph.  Looks like the dewpoint battle line is sinking southward also a bit.

My dewpoint definitely falling. Was 29 at at 530 now down to 27. Temp 46.

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I think this is going to be interesting... Dewpoints around the valley are intriguing. My dewpoint currently is 29, most locations from a line from Dayton to Athens and north are around or below freezing except nearest to the Eastern mountains and far southern valley where dewPoints are in the mid to upper 30's.

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Morristown seems to be running a little later than normal on their Afternoon Disco today, bet they are in serious debate at the moment.

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Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for the mountains.

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I definitely don't expect any watches as in Winter Storm Watches, I would not be surprised to see WWA for far southern counties after 0Z, I know MRX hugs Euro and it's thermals are not great but with neighboring CWA pressure for continuity and the model trends I could see it, however it's far more likely tomorrow after 12z.

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At what point will NWS start putting out advisories/watches?

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Morristown's first guess.

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There was a scenario several years back where modeling was not enthused at all about precip into Tennessee.  I remember Robert @ WxSouth ended up picking up on the inverted trough and in the end there was a decent snow from it.  I can't remember the year, but my recollection tells me the basics were familiar... (i.e. overrunning, inverted trough, no defined low, etc.)
Does anyone else remember this event?

I always try to looks at small details for any event in East TN. Mainly because the terrain can cause things to go unexpectedly wrong or sometimes in our favor. Looking at the NAM, the thing I like about this system is that low level winds over WNC are from a more easterly direction during the start of the system, while winds over the ETN valley are more northerly. This typically happens when we get an inverted trough induced along the mountains, which helps provide some low level lift and often produces more precip than modeled. This current situation is more subtle, but the characteristics are still there. It’s something to watch to see if precip trends upward as we go.