ShawnEastTN

Something else yall may or may not know is there is this website where you can view old afd's from years ago in any city. IEM COW. It's very interesting 

Dang was hoping to read an AFD from the 12th & 13th of March 1993 for MRX probably pretty entertaining. They have other products though for those days that were nostalgic. I was only 13 at the time and really hoped to see what they wrote for Discussions for those days. Still was amazing seeing in B&W "Blizzard conditions at times" & "Stay indoors and DO NOT attempt to travel today" in an SPS. Great find BTW, adding to bookmarks. I just want one more blizzard of 93 before I'm really old.

A couple days ago the forecast high today was 33, then it was 31, looks like I'm gonna top out at 26, as the sun is setting here. After the high being 11 yesterday, and -4 this morning, technically our 4th day below zero, of this outbreak. This one will definitely go down in the memory banks for 95 percent of the forum. It stinks that the far southeast areas mostly missed out, but it just shows how hard it is to get a truly statewide event. The Arctic Invasion that allowed a forum wide winter storm in 1996 had highs near 0 and lows in the -20 range. This is like a mini version of it. 

My high did the same thing for today. Originally forecast 2 days ago to be 34, then changed to be 31 only topped out at 28. This may not be the most extreme cold snap in East Tennessee, but it will be well remembered for both the intense cold long duration and amount of time snow has been on the ground. Now at a week from first snow and cold. A week later still have about 7 or 8 inches of snow left on the ground. Only lost a small amount to sublimation, think the freezing rain locked it in so that it cannot sublimate as quickly as a normal snow would have.

Turning out to be a good NW flow event IMBY compared to most. Have pretty good light snow falling. Most NW flow I get a shower or 2 and flurries. I've had pretty consistent light snow for the last hour. My valley location doesn't usually get much from these but this might over perform for me.

Yeah that's a nice looking clipper, should get some decent flakage soon. Sigh... I still love it
 

 

Just beginning to reach me and now a light snow shower. Interesting enough this morning I went above freezing to 33. Though now it appears to be falling again.

Wow it is really bad out there I swear I already have about a tenth of an inch of glaze which is what they were calling for as the upper limit.

I keep getting showers for about 10 minutes like the ones circled, and between those I get drizzle. Drizzle alone is bad, I think as the night goes on they'll become more numerous.

Downsloped.


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I have had showers with drizzle in between them since it started. I think things will continue saturating through this into more steady rain but even looking up stream the precip looks showery instead of continuous rain. Though I would be absolutely fine if I didn't get another drop. Just the little bit I've gotten so far has made the roads worse.

I'm really surprised how persistent my temp has been with how strong WAA has been outside the snow area. Essentially since about 1pm it's stayed 28/29, dewpoint has been very slowly rising though now up to 26. I guess evaporative cooling has had an impact all day here. Wonder if I'll go above freezing later in the night or will dew point stop climbing at some point.

Never got above 29 today raining and glazing here. Areas of packed snow on roads is turning into solid clear type ice that you get no traction on. Locally there are vehicles now stuck between hills on a couple roads that got progressively worse over the last 2 hours. Had a nice shower almost moderate in nature that lasted about 15 minutes that seemed to speed the glazing.

Sleet reported by my neighbor. 

Maybe a good sign it'll be more sleet than freezing rain. I have a return over me but nothing fall currently.

I've made it to 27 degrees. I noticed the Crossville airport was at 33 but has fallen to 30. Dewpoints are low, in the 10s, so some wetbulbing will occur.

Yeah I'm wondering if that is what has seemed to lock my temperature down. I rose from 4 degrees this morning rather quickly to 25 then the rise slowed after clouds and stalled at 26/27. I've been sitting at like 26.9, and 27.1 back and forth for a couple hours now and climbing has stopped completely. I noticed humidity has really increased 82%, my dewpoint is 22.

Should those of us in West Knox/Loudon Co. area be concerned about power outages with the possibility of the freezing rain later? Thankfully, it's something we've mostly avoided this week with the mega-snowfall. But freezing rain on power lines -- are we forecasted to get enough accretion to worry about losing power? Thanks for all of you who share your knowledge on a regular basis.

A tenth of an inch isn't too terrible, but all it takes is 1 weaker tree, then adding hundreds of pounds of ice to the weight to it to fall and take a line out. So it's definitely possible. A lot of folks don't think about the combined weight a mature tree especially a pine or cedar is holding up with a tenth of an inch of ice on every nook and cranny. It's an astounding amount of weight up to the weight of a small car. For my area trees still have snow on them that is sealed to the tree by freezing rain at the end of the snow Monday. That already has pines and cedars bending under the weight. Add more freezing rain and Friday wind gusts 25-30mph and I think it's a guarantee for at least sporadic outages. I don't think widespread outages but definitely will be some.

The WAA is shocking. Started out at 11.8 degrees this morning. Already pushing 40 in just a few hours.

Wow that is incredible! Aren't cruising upward like that up this way. Seems to plateaued around 25/26 here since clouds moved in. Snow still isn't melting here.

Temps made it to 29° but clouds just rolled in. Definitely has an eery dense fog look

Yeah as I look toward the west toward the plateau it looks dark like a summer thunderstorm approaching almost.

Should add I've made it to 25 and overcast conditions are either moving in or developing. Can't tell for sure, but it seems like it developed overhead rather than moved in from the west. Anyone on the plateau have overcast skies or sunshine?

My hopes were we in the valley might get a situation where we trap enought cold air in the valley deep enough to give us snow.  This has happened before but I think we are going to get to strong WWA up the valley especially with the sun helping out now that we get only frezzing rain.  It could be really terrible.
 

Definitely still possible, these situations can be surprising like that. I would prefer sleet if can't get snow over freezing rain but I have a feeling it's going to be equally if not more treacherous tomorrow morning as it was end of day Monday and Tuesday morning. A little ice is a big deal in normal circumstances let alone with many roads even in Knoxville sill ice/snow packed.

That temp in crossville does not bode well for anything but rain and frezzing rain.  Was hoping that clouds would have come in this morning and keep the temp down but that has not happened.

Yeah I believe the higher elevation actually works a bit in favor of warmer in this scenario at least initially. Lower points will trap shallow cold easier. Though with snowpack think everyone with it, will likely get the freezing rain in general.

Glad to see MRX come to their senses this morning. They were potentially putting a lot of folks into a false sense of everything will be fine, disregarding the trapped cold, enhanced by deep unusual snowpack. I was stunned yesterday at how they were proceeding. Glad to see them right that ship.

I've just blew through my predicted low. My zone forecast says 15, my point forecast says 13. It's down to 9 degrees already. 

I haven't busted my low, but I'm at it now. My point forecast low is 12 that is what I'm at now. I imagine I'll be much lower by daybreak.

So much for me loving this weather. Last two nights I’ve been at a Knoxville HS keeping the boilers on. I can’t let the domestic water freeze and bust but high natural gas demand is sending my units into flame failure. I’m one of a couple guys who work on this equipment so I have to be here but I’ve got a 9 year old and wife at home who’s recovering from a double mastectomy surgery because of breast cancer. Trying to get to some of these schools is not easy.


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That sucks man, to have so much going on at once is difficult.

Sorry for the question, but I've not been following like the last system... What's the timeframe we are looking at here? Driving from New Tazewell to Knoxville for work, for the first time this week, tomorrow and want to make sure I can actually make it home. Thanks in advance. 

Likely evening. Exact time would be hard to guess, but probably not earlier than 5 PM and probably no later than 8PM for that start time.

OHX Ice accumulation map which I know aren't hand drawn has almost all of Meigs, McMinn and probably Loudon county showing up to a tenth of an inch freezing rain. I believe their graphic more than I do MRX as it's just more reasonable.

I will not at all be surprised if parts of the valley stays below freezing all day tomorrow. As soon as WAA starts there will be a strong temp inversion and low level clouds will build. With the snow pack, as soon as the clouds build in those surface temps will be locked in. I also have a concern about freezing fog.


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I'm expecting to get near zero again tonight, I know they are expecting SW winds to advect warm air, but SW of me for about 200 miles is snow pack all the way to Huntsville Alabama. I'm sure that distance of snow pack will have an impact on the temperature here all the way to Knox County and beyond.

I think that even if we make it to the mid 30s the ground is so cold and frozen, it could still freeze up in spots.
 
My road is nasty. Compacted snow several inches thick. I think they tried to plow it, but it just made it solid?  Anyway, rain will not help that glacier. 

Yeah I am stunned they didn't include Meigs and Loudon counties. They love the magical meteorological barrier of I-40, completely disregarding in both counties there is 10 inches of snow on the ground. Kind of bizarre. It's going to be treacherous even with regular liquid, roads here are still snow/ice packed with concrete tough ice that's 3 inches thick on the pavement. Plows can't break it up and salt has had no impact. You take that plus some rain of any variety then flash freeze it with the snow and ice already there and it might be really bad.

Probably hit my high today about 5 degrees below forecast. Usually about 3 pm is my maximum and 24 is all I could muster. Not really melting snow, still in trees like it just happened and trees are usually the first place to lose snow for me before the ground. If we have a clear night most of the night but clouds move in toward daybreak locking temps down, I am just not sure WAA is going to have a big enough impact locally to really help with tomorrow's storm.