ShawnEastTN

Not 100% sure..but ground moisture I wouldn't believe would for this. Now freezing fog that glazes everything would be I think. With this type airmass, larger bodies of water could play a very micro roll.

Anyone else feel like there’s an opportunity for someone in the valley to over perform?


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In the past I would watch that sort of slosh of cool and warm blobs either from CAA or Downsloping & WAA depending on the situation on Wunderground PWS map full screen to see as much of the valley as possible at once. Very fun thing to see those pools slosh back and forth before mixing.

Looking at the RGEM soundings, the wind direction this doesn't appear to be a downsloping issue. More like what is seen on every front rolling off the plateau, it slowed the front just a smidge more. Doing so causes less time for the Arctic air to wash the warmer air out of the valley, as it gets pushed against the Smokies. It's like a quasi warm nose in a way...rates, speed, and several other factors can quickly erase this problem, but won't be ironed out until closer to the event.

I’m I reading this correctly that MRX isn’t really all that concerned with PType issues outside of the lowest elevations of the southern valley?


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I just don't buy the thermals of NAM and end of HRRR. The mechanisms for that just isn't there unless this is going to become a major Gulf storm. The only thing in East that might affect Thermals would be downsloping, but even that I just can't see being supercharged. The flow just isn't that great over the mountains to push temps way up. East should sink deep into the 20's and Teens Monday morning clouds socked in before daybreak. Without a strong Gulf storm, without strong flow over the mountains it just doesn't make sense to me that thermals go into torch mode as the end of the short-range models are suggesting. Not wish casting just don't see the fundamentals for an Eastern torch.

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I don’t blame her at all. However one thing I believe that would help the local weather people in these situations is to show the viewers more than one solution and explain the difference. At this range they could show more than one accumulation map.


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01z NBM

I honestly don’t think there’s any trends at this point going on. Feels like mods are just bouncing back and forth 50ish miles or so every run. The issue is the margin of error is pretty thin considering we are looking at 150-200 mile swath at the most for a significant amount. I’d say the big swings are over with at this point. Feels like the southern plateau up to Crossville is probably a safe spot to be in. I won’t be surprised if the bouncing around continues up until kickoff. If I had to give an opinion, I’d say the best thing for a forum wide event is for the mods to come in a little SE and hope the mods are underestimating the NW precip shield which they have been known to do.


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Chatty a sweet spot this run

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GFS just isn't giving up.

Edit: maybe losing QPF a tick faster.

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Historically, MRX considers Hamilton county to mean Chattanooga. They won't issue advisories or warnings if the event only affects Lookout and Signal mountains for example. I don't see them doing anything differently this time.

With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like 

Ha, those were my first weather forums, we probably interacted at some point!  I met John there around 2008-2009 I think.

Not the DGEX but I've been fiddling with Earl Barker's page today trying to render some of his classic graphics.  Sadly no luck on my end yet.  If anybody can conjure an Earl NAMing please post it.
https://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm
 

Someone got the DGEX for old time sake? I really miss it so much. I guarantee it would show the storm of the century right about now.

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While this may be my own forecasting “anti-bias” / cautious & pessimistic forecasting attitude taking hold, but I don’t like the look of the end of today’s 18z Nam for eastern areas if one wants snow. We haven’t had the actual arctic air yet arrive from behind the current system and it remains to be seen just how robust this arctic air is when it moves in Sunday. I feel pretty confident western and middle tn folks are on board to see some decent accumulation, but the potential is there for this swath of snow to shift 50-100 miles north of the current forecasted area for East Tennessee if deep cold thickness lines end up not being as far south and shift sw to ne like the end of the latest nam 12km is indicating. This is exactly what happened on January 5th, 2022 with the snow expected to hit pretty much all of East Tennessee with 3”-5” anticipated, however, in reality, all of East Tennessee barely received a trace or even 1/2” with most of the moderate to heavy snow going to our north and west with milder and drier air over all of East Tennessee. I’m not saying this is what will happen with this upcoming system because I’m sure different dynamics are at play and the Nam isn’t necessarily spot on at hr 84, but I did get a small dose of PTSD when I saw the end of the NAM and connected that to Jan 5th 2022.  

I love that this is looking to be a longish duration event.  Not just a quick 3 or 4 hour hit.  My exuberance is growing! 

Cove Mtn MRX just reported a 105 Mph gust with sustained winds of 62 Mph.

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Starting to see Morristown releasing graphics with higher totals now. Even Chatty bump to 30% of 2" or more.

Just posted on their FB feed:

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Strengthening  low near  the Outer Banks that isn't producing any precip on it's west/nw side for some reason by 102.
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I’ll be honest… I almost didn’t open this after I got up because I expected everything had caved to the Euro.


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By the 0z GFS having low sitting about 50 miles from Hatteras its another shift westward. Today the GFS has shifted the low track about 200 miles total westward. If we can get this thing running inside Hatteras like through Albemarle Sound that back far western precip shield will include Nashville. For GFS that is a trend westward with the low track on the operational through the day today. Also even as modeled the precip shield both north and west extent is under modeled likely as we see in these storms pretty much every year for as far as I can remember.

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Don't forget posting some long range hi-res precip output to get hopes up:

Looks to me at hour 120 12Z GFS, the low is centered about 100 miles west of 6z GFS for the same point in time. If we can get that to continue until that sucker is nearer to the coast... At 120 that low though is 100 miles closer to Hatteras than it was at 6Z.

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