ShawnEastTN

I've made it to 22 but not sure I'll get much higher. The sun sets here pretty soon.

Think I've topped out also, 24. Ridge behind/south of my house blocks sun and makes for earlier sunset in winter. Was supposed to go another 5 degrees higher.

So very cool and interesting phenomenon for East Tennessee. MRX has documented Lake effect snow off Douglas & Cherokee Lake this morning! Talk about rare occurrence.

Edit: Didn't see [mention=14393]PowellVolz[/mention] and @Holston_River_Rambler had reported this already earlier this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/QGXrP4QAArvudDw8/?mibextid=4p3i6U

I know they are not handling it well in my area; I was down to -9.8; forecast low was 5, so far, I am up to 14.5

Same my general forecast low across models was 5 above. I beat that by 6, but neighbors further away from the water beat it by 10 or more degrees.

I really feel like today is a bit of a litmus test on model temperatures. Most models have me rising into the upper 20's today. I started at -1 being a stones throw from Watts Bar Lake kept me warmer than a few miles away from the water where many PWS were -5 to -10. My temp has risen into the teens but seems almost stalled at 15/16 degrees. If we bust colder than models forecast then I think models are not handling the deep snowpack in our area well. Weird to say deep snowpack in my area being in the valley but it's deep compared to a normal snowfall. Going to take longer to get rid of it.

12z RGEM:

This makes me feel a little better. I honestly think frozen precip will be easier to deal with over liquid that flash freezes trapped by ice/snow plow banks on roads here.

Also, would this event register for an advisory? Friday will have dropping temps even if they manage to get above freezing in the morning. I can imagine it will be a huge mess, even if precip is limited and rain...

This! Even if we get to 34 and rain where I am located there are piles of snow along the side of the road from plows. Those piles are not going to melt from the low QPF of this storm even above freezing with rain. There will be water trapped on the road surface unable to drain over the plow banks that will flash freeze and likely be worse than before at the peak of the 10 inch snow. I expect some hazard product to be issued likely advisory.

-2 and power just went out, gonna be a fun morning 

Ouch not good! I've just fallen below zero now. Being by the river I think tends to keep my spot a little warmer, if 0 is warm. Probably fall a few more degrees at least before sunrise, so probably low of -3 for me. PWS in my area away from the river are colder -4 to -8.

He's just over the top with the "Captain Accurate" stuff. He had the heaviest snow yesterday over the areas that mix/rained. Todd Howell is about it for local TV mets that seem to be aware of meteorology and the microclimates here. 

Yeah Todd is my fav local met. I swear most mets on local stations are just there for entertainment value and don't seem to study the topography of their forecast area aside from knowing the Smokies are generally colder.

I'm currently at 13 but falling pretty fast within the last hour I was 17.

It's not correct for my area but it rarely is. 

Yeah I always take these with a giant grain of salt. They don't get enough spotter reports to be able to make accurate maps.

Took these just a few minutes ago. Usually after a heavy snow, breezes knock it all off the trees the next day here. The snow on that cedar and other tree here on my property looks delicate by appearance like it could be blown off or fall off easily, but it is actually sealed by the light freezing rain to the trees. The freezing rain was light enough here to coat the snow and not wash it away even on trees. Don't think I've seen that at my house in previous storms. Very rare for me to have snow still on trees by the end of the day after a snow.

Here is MRX accumulation map, just released.

Yep @Knoxtron I have a few cedars that the tops are really bent originally from the weight of snow then the freezing rain locked that snow by sort of encapsulation so that it ain't coming off easily, until we get some serious melt time.

 

Sun is out and I still have snow? Can someone pinch me??

I know so rare for me in the valley, even deep snows like this are usually mostly gone by this time in the day. See you got a good freezing rain coating also.

@PowellVolz OHX released their area accumulation map. I'm waiting to see MRX, but on their map your bullseye you drew even before it was snowing shows in the map almost perfectly as 8"-12" orange. West and North Knox down to Rhea and Meigs. Need you to start drawing those bulleyes before every storm.

I ended the event very close to 10 inches, but that transition to sleet and freezing rain was more than I realized at the end of the event. It was still freezing rain and sleeting when I went to bed but was very light. Just broke the sleet crust off an undisturbed area of snow and you can clearly see the sleet pellets frozen together, got about an inch of sleet before it all ended for me sometimes well after midnight. Can clearly see the sleet pellets shape fused together for a thick crust. Really surprised to see that sleet layer at an inch thick. So just under 10" of snow, and about 1 inch of sleet.

Just going to throw this out there. It's not very common to have deep snowpack over most of Tennessee with an approaching storm. I think many models are really over doing warming ahead the storm and if they aren't over doing warm nose aloft then I really fear a potential ice storm over much of the snow pack area. If we get .25 QPF of freezing rain it will be very bad in normal situations, let alone on trees that have snow on them that is already enveloped in light ice from the switch to freezing rain at the end in my neck of the woods.

I can say it’s basically been snowing for 24 hours now.


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Same here. Though now I'm getting sleet and freezing rain in between the snow showers on the radar. The gaps in the radar is just lighter precip which for me is freezing rain and sleet. Then a heavier snow shower come overhead and big flakes for a bit. It's weird because I'm used to mixing being at the start of an event, not the end of an event while the temp is actually falling through the mid 20's.

Yes, but still a lot to be ironed out.  Then a MONSTER warm-up the next week(day 8-14) 5-10 days worth, and then a colder Feb than maybe we have been used to....maybe.

Colder than normal February is a beautiful thing to me. Most of my snows across my life at my location have been in February.

The HRRR continues to show a lull here for a bit but is picking up on some intensity with snow around midnight and lasting for several hours. I’d expect us to be well below freezing by then and am hoping that’s when we can pile some up. Mixing has really messed me up in this event but still has been great.


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Most of the time your location is one of the best, but occasionally the mountains actually work against you. This was one of those rare time being in or too close to the mountains hurt instead of helped.

I actually think I'd have deeper snow if the goose feathers came first then powder. Because the goose feathers of the last few hours are heavier in weight and it's compacting the softer powder under it.

Just measured 9 inches. Now its snowing hard in bursts like it's becoming scattered. Each round is goose feathers very hard. Workshop deck and flower pot show the scale.

Just went on a long drive out to the Rhea/Roane county line. Spring City might get a foot. They had over 6" when I left and it was snowing about as hard as I have ever seen. I parked my truck for 20 minutes and got just under 2" on the mirrors and the toolbox.

Yep I'm right across the river from Spring City and I'm measuring 9 inches.

Just when I've seen the heaviest, it increases more. Heavy goose feathers.

Scratch what I said earlier the heavier precip seems to be bringing my temp down now. Down to 27 which I haven't been since about 630AM.