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ShawnEastTN

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    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Oof, the 18z GFS. Is this essentially the part where we lose the storm? Timing is about right. 
    Hopefully it's a transition from the frontal passage scenario to a full blown storm. Will be interesting to see 0Z tonight. Euro went to popping a low, hopefully that is what GFS is heading toward. If we can get a low, get the front to stall or slow dramatically and the low head north we are in better shape than just Fropa.

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    • Like 1

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I used to think those were erroneous lollipops, but Knox Co has to have some sort of micro-confluence there.  Tellico had a great illustration overnight.  On more than one occasion, Knoxville has outperformed areas to the north.  I do think the front gets sheered by the time it gets to TRI as precipitation tries to get over the Apps.  But that alley to the west of Knoxville seems to let a lot of precip in....I see that w/ summer thunderstorms as well.  It seems if one area can dodge the Plateau rain shadow, it is Knoxville.
    It is also possible that there is some smoothing from the Smokies which affects that.  We often have way to much digital snow here as modeling will often smooth snow amounts too much.
    Not just the lollipop, often the Chattanooga snow hole in models goes all the way to Roane county and rarely is that ever accurate. Usually in real life that snow hole is really primarily just Hamilton county but models drag it north to almost Oak Ridge often.

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    • Like 1

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    24-hour ratio map. I don't believe the barren spot down toward the southern valley. But great map otherwise and up for every from 12 and 18z. 
     
    J7rmHDF.md.png
     
    I don't either, usually those occur for warm nose, this setup just won't have one that pronounced I believe. 0z definitely has better looking QPF overall.

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    • Like 2

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    On the go right now, accumulations still in the 4”+ range for East TN on that run?
    Essentially only down around Chattanooga is it around an inch. Though I don't fully understand considering it depicted snow the entire time, so must be accounting on some mixing to occur there. Chattanooga aside it's roughly the same 3-4" with some spots going 5-6".695d61c7865ffca574db829c0d84f164.jpg

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    • Like 4

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Can confirm.  Very light snow showers mixed in with a light rain from Memphis and into Fayette and hardeman counties east of Memphis.    Wind has been screaming all day long,  tough day for folks who make their living outside. 
    Yeah I wanted to look at the Memphis radar but appears it's under maintenance so can't get a good look out that way.

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    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Looks like the precip modeled to build into the region this evening and tonight for snow showers is starting to show on OHX radar heading east. See some Mping reports of snow and mixed precip near Memphis currently. Maybe this will over produce like the rain QPF did with this system. I wouldn't be surprised considering the Great Lakes are wide open and the storm is interacting with the open water as that low passes through the eastern lakes.e18ba795498017d0077f13ac5d23baad.jpg

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    • Like 4

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    What excites me most at this point are the modeled temps.  For once we may not be dealing with marginals.
    Absolutely! Years of marginal temps, this would be awesome. Also not a typical southern snow that is gone the next day, as modeled mostly we'd have snow on the ground for up to a week. I haven't seen that in at least a decade.

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    • Like 5

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Not too much up here on the plateau yet but my location doesn’t usually get much in these situations. 
    I am too usually from south winds as my exposure is north with a ridge generally blocking south winds. Usually in strong south winds I can hear them roaring up the ridge from my house. Though even with that protection I still tend to somehow get the odd gust that comes down the ridge. Those odd gusts have been numerous in the last hour, more than normal.

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    • Like 1

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Why is the rest of the valley not under an advisory? The winds are absolutely howling here! Gusting to 30+ already
    I was surprised by that also. I guess using their modeling of winds seemed to show an area with a lull in the center of the central valley. Might be a big bust in their forecast.

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    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Just got a 110 mph return on radar scope velocity near Leconte. No idea how accurate it is for ground level conditions. 
    I believe it the wind in the last hour has increased rapidly here. Only gusts to about 15 an hour ago but now gusting past 30.

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    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    The 18z GFS maps are crazy cold and snowy.  Take some time and give them a look.  You all won't see those types of maps very often.
    Yeah pretty awesome look, especially if we get snow right at the onset. IMBY it's been a really long time since I had snow that lasted even in patches longer than 3 days, and considering I live on the north side of a ridge which gives lots of protection from solar radiation that says a lot. It's been years for me, probably all the way back to the back to back events in 2014 and before that probably 2007. Basically a decade ago to find snow that lingered on the ground more than 3 days.

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    • Sad 1

    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I can't remember if it was the Feb storm or the big Jan 96 blizzard, but one of those storms gave us almost 6" of sleet down here. It was like a marble countertop everywhere. Absurd sledding. MRX is missing KCHA ASOS data from that winter, so I can't look up when it actually happened.
    Yes! I live about 70 miles north of Chatt but that's what we got too a crazy ton of sleet with just a little snow on it at the end.

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    January Medium-Long Range Discussion

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I think if my memory is correct down this neck of the woods I remember 96 not for being a blizzard, but I think down in my area it was freezing rain that switched to long duration sleet then eventually to snow. Think we may have only gotten a few inches of snow but it was over ice and packed sleet.

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    • Like 1

    Winter 23-24' Wx Observations Thread

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Yeah, models seem way off for this little system. Surprised no one is talking about this or interested.
     
    I know there are bigger potential opportunities (or busts) ahead, but I will take whatever 3 flakes I can get. lol 
    Getting Graupel & sleet pellets mostly graupel at my house currently. The Mping is my location.681cb993b02bff717632348d7f24da60.jpg

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