ShawnEastTN
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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hopefully it's a transition from the frontal passage scenario to a full blown storm. Will be interesting to see 0Z tonight. Euro went to popping a low, hopefully that is what GFS is heading toward. If we can get a low, get the front to stall or slow dramatically and the low head north we are in better shape than just Fropa. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not just the lollipop, often the Chattanooga snow hole in models goes all the way to Roane county and rarely is that ever accurate. Usually in real life that snow hole is really primarily just Hamilton county but models drag it north to almost Oak Ridge often. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I don't either, usually those occur for warm nose, this setup just won't have one that pronounced I believe. 0z definitely has better looking QPF overall. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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Rain snow mix at 38 IMBY. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I really wouldn't be surprised if in future runs it pops a low in the Gulf that hopefully will be a good tracking storm. Fingers crossed it does. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Agree, though I also think it appears to be moving through faster on 18z compared to previous runs. CAA seems to blast further south quicker. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Makes me question the calculations between Weatherbell and Pivotal weather as they don't seem to line up. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Here is kuchera Sunday before the storm. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Essentially only down around Chattanooga is it around an inch. Though I don't fully understand considering it depicted snow the entire time, so must be accounting on some mixing to occur there. Chattanooga aside it's roughly the same 3-4" with some spots going 5-6". Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
18Z GFS holds serve. Maybe a tad colder, and deeper with CAA speed. Basically full state snow, no mixing even Chattanooga rain snow line is close to Tennessee border but appears to stay south of state line. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah I wanted to look at the Memphis radar but appears it's under maintenance so can't get a good look out that way. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like the precip modeled to build into the region this evening and tonight for snow showers is starting to show on OHX radar heading east. See some Mping reports of snow and mixed precip near Memphis currently. Maybe this will over produce like the rain QPF did with this system. I wouldn't be surprised considering the Great Lakes are wide open and the storm is interacting with the open water as that low passes through the eastern lakes. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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Roaring here too occasionally. It's so loud in the woods behind and around my house I can hear the roar through the trees if I have everything turned off in the house. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
YES well said! QPF modeled for me from this event on Euro was 1.57, I received 3.46". Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
BTW not related to the coming event but Gatlinburg is blaring warning sirens with loud speaker messages asking people to seek higher ground. [emoji991] Watch this video on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/v/VD8qmva8V7ih8Q5u/?mibextid=4p3i6U Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Absolutely! Years of marginal temps, this would be awesome. Also not a typical southern snow that is gone the next day, as modeled mostly we'd have snow on the ground for up to a week. I haven't seen that in at least a decade. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
OHX on FB just now: Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I am too usually from south winds as my exposure is north with a ridge generally blocking south winds. Usually in strong south winds I can hear them roaring up the ridge from my house. Though even with that protection I still tend to somehow get the odd gust that comes down the ridge. Those odd gusts have been numerous in the last hour, more than normal. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I was surprised by that also. I guess using their modeling of winds seemed to show an area with a lull in the center of the central valley. Might be a big bust in their forecast. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I believe it the wind in the last hour has increased rapidly here. Only gusts to about 15 an hour ago but now gusting past 30. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah pretty awesome look, especially if we get snow right at the onset. IMBY it's been a really long time since I had snow that lasted even in patches longer than 3 days, and considering I live on the north side of a ridge which gives lots of protection from solar radiation that says a lot. It's been years for me, probably all the way back to the back to back events in 2014 and before that probably 2007. Basically a decade ago to find snow that lingered on the ground more than 3 days. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Schools down this way have begun closing for tomorrow. Crazy I don't recall school closing when I was a kid due to forecast winds. Meigs, McMinn, and Bradley among others have all closed for tomorrow. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yes! I live about 70 miles north of Chatt but that's what we got too a crazy ton of sleet with just a little snow on it at the end. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
ShawnEastTN replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think if my memory is correct down this neck of the woods I remember 96 not for being a blizzard, but I think down in my area it was freezing rain that switched to long duration sleet then eventually to snow. Think we may have only gotten a few inches of snow but it was over ice and packed sleet. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk- 1,263 replies
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Getting Graupel & sleet pellets mostly graupel at my house currently. The Mping is my location. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk