Supernovice

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s that supposed to mean? Consequences of physical climate risk? That right there is called weather happens. 

Correct-ish, Physical and financial…this is all encompassing, private equity, business loans, real estate- literally everything. But below is the breakout.  The indirect impacts are the largest like supply chain disruption, lost productivity etc. I think this is about a lot more than weather. Gotta think this impacts our children’s lives tremendously. 
 

Really interesting report I saw today- cliff notes:

28 of the largest U.S. financial institutions hold $2.2T in syndicated loan exposure. Impact of climate change could be 10% of that portfolio or $200-250B. Which wow- that is NOT priced in. Below is from the report.

20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/21/evergrande-debt-crisis-interest-payments-on-bondsimpact-on-investors.html

11% of ALL high yield bonds from Asia are Evergrande’s and they do not look to be paying on them ...I bet most major banks have significant exposure 

No disagreement here— one would think someone is about to learn  a hard lesson. I just haven’t seen it in the spreads outside of China CDS. I guess we’ll see. 

greater risk for China is doing nothing…I’m not sure they are keen on dealing with mass protests which will certainly occur if they don’t provide any liquidity or government cash. Seems like we are risk on today at least to start- but volatility works both ways so not unexpected.

In all seriousness— this correction was set in motion in June. Markets were extended…there wasn’t a pullback in the late spring- which I had predicted. September is a historically weak month for returns…I saw something like the week after sept option exp is negative 25 outta 29 times or something with the avg drawdown being 94 bps.

what I’m saying is the smart money had been looking for some consolidation for some time, inst. money rebalancing into quarter end…and maybe a little liquidity event in China…that’s how you get here…I see choppiness through this week, and then we’re back on the escalator back up through year end.

4 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we on the verge of a 2008 type China induced global recession?

Yes- but I’ll buy any stocks that you wanna sell at these levels tho.

appropriate:

Cranked the heat to 90 and had ourselves a nice final pool party for the season. Surprisingly warm in the sun today.

Question is— past Wednesday does it continue?

Gas man came yesterday, so of course it'll be:

pool temp: 85

air temp: 55

Shoulda closed her.

When are you guys doing fall fert and seed? Thinking this week...am I too early?

What's up w/ that de-thatcher? I rented one from HD when I was trying to save my previous lawn- what a pain in the ass. That for fall use? Do you use it every yr?

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To be fair ... I am not sure that it is mine, per se.  But I get what you meant...  I am not sure which came first, my bloviating, or whether reviewed/officiated science on the matter was just happening all along unwittingly to myself - probably the latter.  With millions of minds looking, pensively peering over environmental facets these days ...very few novel ideas are really out there. It's more of race to be published first, while half their reader's are all going, "Yeah, we know/knew this 10 years ago... "  But the point is, it's saturating content everywhere. Most respectable enthusiasts, to normal climate and Met folk alike are aware.  

 

- Thanks.  I guess I'm really thinking about wrong...interesting...will be watching for more airline ground speed records incoming regardless.

Edit: Quoted the wrong post

Tip--The question on my mind... as a fan of your Hadley cell observations etc for many yrs....do we see a snap-back mid/late Oct- snowbomb?  The +2sd anomalies have to be offset somewhere/ at some point right? I know that's an oversimplification but?

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A heater would make it nice.  But my pool is likely done for the season.  Too bad since some nice weather upcoming.   
What does a heater cost to install and run?

5k for heater and install… I have two large propane tanks- those are free if you sign a contract with a gas co. Those are like $750 to refill. Usually do that twice, this yr 3 times. I’ve figured it heats mine (about 25k gallons) about two degrees per hour. I can’t recommend it enough tbh. This is my 2nd yr with it.

My neighbor put in an electric same time as me and he has to keep it running thurs- sun for weekend activities which I would imagine gets pricey.

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I had one all of my years growing up thru HS. And took care of it basically on my own. Rip off that cover!

It literally pains me to agree with you about anything…But postponed the close and refilled the tanks on the heater…October swimming here we come.

Just FYI, the Thunderbirds are going to be at Pease this weekend. Weekend looks gorge.

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the autumns are definitely warmer now (particularly early autumn). Especially compared to the late 1980s and early 1990s. There was a string of obscenely frigid autumns back then which were cold even relative to the 20th century climate.

The funny part is that we rarely ever got snow despite how cold some of those autumns were...lol. 

 

Not sure if this is the place for this but…

I vividly remember tracking lake effect streamers in October hoping they would clear the berkshires …had to be like 10, so mid 90’s. Like that was how we got our first snow- every year. I remember rushing home from school to get football games organized in the snow. My question is- am I losing it or have things changed?

That’s a legit waterspout in the sound.

40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m confused. The team approved his appointment and weren’t aware he’d have to sit 5 days for being unvaxxed? What about this would piss BB off about Cam? Or do you just mean he’ll get starting reps with the first teamers this week?

I think they misunderstood the rules. he tested neg each day he was away from NE but those tests don't count under the NFL policy apparently. so he has to quarantine for 5 days.  so looks like everyone f-ed up.

Thank you all, great advice. I do have some spots in the sod I'd like to get thicker...so seed in the fall then fert and lesco in the spring it seems. I use milorganite- 3 applications per year- love that stuff... Anyone do any soil sampling just to be sure? I'm thinking about it for the spring.

I need some help...I'm spending a small fortune and more time than I'd like, manually spraying/picking crabgrass outta my lawn.  It's a pain in the ass tbh.  I put in all fresh sod last yr, and it looks fantastic- i wanna keep it that way.  I should put down something in the spring I assume to prevent it from sprouting.  If so- I then seed in the fall per usual and skip the spring seeding since it'd get killed by the crabgrass control?  anyone have any experience?

Shout-out to @Typhoon Tip. My router & modem are installed and the difference is hugggeee. 

I can be a bit of a d*ck on here at times- but your help was/is appreciated.

8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

how do you do that? i was wondering..

 I use a program called 'snag it' for all of those type of things. highly recommend.

26 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its incredible to me that you would read this thread with all its toxic trolling about hospitals filling up and anti vax rhetoric from your bros and think that people who just showed up the past few days are a problem. This place is gross and has been for awhile. 

Yes it is the one "woman", and her 2 liberal friends who come in here, make all of 10 posts that cause all the issues and get things shut down.  Your eyes are lying to you.

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I already had an employee sue me and one of my primes over COVID restrictions, so I definitely lost sleep over it.

I have no idea what "business" you are actually in (it seems to be some kind of vague and changing George Costanza "importer/exporter" thing based on your posts here) so I can't compare notes.

We agree to disagree- I’m renewing right now, hasn’t been brought up at all by my broker who is literally the biggest in the world. Prices are up but in my view it’s consolidation driving that - I dunno man.

I’m was trying to agree with you- not get into a pissing contest but here we are. 

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It might not hit the Supreme Court, but there are going to be a lot of wrongful termination lawsuits over this.

What do I do as an employer if the employee refuses to provide vaccine status or test results? Fire him/her on the spot? I am not so sure I have legal protection there. I could definitely see the EEOC and state labor boards not agreeing that was a bonafide reason to fire someone. This will be a mess for companies that operate across state lines and globally.

So I’ve disagreed with you on the insurance thing for awhile. I run our Corp insurance program on the side— zero Covid claims in CAD, US, MX (5k employees) since this started including manufacturing lines, which we never paused unless there was an active outbreak ongoing, literally never lost a minute of sleep over that side of the business re: Covid.

But I 100% agree things get sticky when it comes to proving vaccine status. And ultimately that’s why I think this will end up being mandated by the states, but you are correct ( for once, lol) I think this becomes an issue for pvt sector co’s.

3 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

 

Just because the court made a ruling in 1905, doesn’t mean it was correct. 
Ever heard of Plessy v Ferguson? Can you tell me what that was and what case overturned it? No google cheat.

Nope never heard of it. Separate but equal, brown v board of Ed…try patronizing someone else.

Legal precedent can be overturned yes, is it likely to be overturned…almost certainly not.

But maybe you’re right, conservative lawyers have always had a problem with states rights— right?