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Supernovice

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Posts posted by Supernovice

  1. 45 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

    Tip of the cap to @Supernovice, calling the media hysteria. I’m hopeful it’s a false alarm. 

    To be clear- my posts were not calling out media hysteria. I actually think this is a potentially HUGE deal. And I didn’t even expect a market reaction until early next week tbh - so wrong there.

    two caveats—first- small sample sizes can lead to wildly distorted analysis- so it’s possible this isn’t as bad as it seems.

    secondly one thing my job taught me is if I’m looking at data in an area I have no expertise in- and it’s telling me a clear story- I should be very wary. The clearer the story it tells the more dangerous my analysis tends to be- like lose ur job dangerous. Just keep that in mind and listen to the experts.

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  2. 32 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

    I'd say this is some Wine, Beer, Whiskey shit from, novice.   But God hates ugly.  We have plenty of ugly mofo's in congress and senate who have run the slaves in to the ground over the last century.  Good Luck this winter:damage:

    Lol- while everyone’s sleeping:

    9DAAA6E1-8470-446C-BCFA-F1C88FE6E774.jpeg

  3. 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

    I just read it's like 10 cases and no alarm yet. They said these mutations tend to burn out

    It’s 59 confirmed cases- this is the only code red email I’ve gotten since  early January 2020. 

    Anyways- obvs hope the experts are wrong but given the UK just announced travel restrictions I don’t think the concern is unwarranted I digress- it’s dessert time.

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  4. 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

    What does this mean. Speak your mind.

    Look I’m not an epidemiologist- I’m a finance guy and this came to me through my IB this afternoon.

    The data is about as devastating as it could be. The genetic mapping indicates that this variant has the potential to evade immune responses- both generated through vaccine and naturally. It is possible(likely) that it is more transmissible than delta. It is quite frankly the worst possible news we could have.

     

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  5. I know this topic is banned and it should be tbh- but I just saw the data re: the WHO meeting tomm. It’s basically the worst case scenario. If I’m going to be depressed on thanksgiving so are all of you. Heavy whiskey incoming. Delete this if you want- whatever.

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  6. 22 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

    So you're saying both supply chain and inflation will improve soon? 

    I’m saying this is the peak of public awareness/concern about it, all downhill from here. 

    “Soon” is a relative term.

     

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  7. 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Actually that was poorly written on my part - I didn't mean to question ORH's number and reset it to 5th.   I just meant averaging all those numbers, if to get a rough sense for a "regional departure" - sloppy integral heh

    I'm surprised we put modest positive nocturnal in the books overnight, this last night ... Considering synoptic layout, there's a front escaping across the NW Atlantic, and a sprawling high - albeit of modest mass - arming in behind it over our region of the continent.   When one has the time of year in mind, that might lend at a glance like its a 28er overnight with ease.

     

    39   ... which isn't warm exactly no.  But it really felt and even smelled like the 2nd frost - for this neck of the woods - was imminent last evening.  Yet, temps apparently rose overnight though; I'm trying to figure out why - because I clearly have a rich and rewarding life ... 

    @Typhoon Tip why can't I pm you?

  8. 37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

    If it was winter this would be tracking up the Hudson 

    maybe not the time for this- but everyone is saying: it'd be a blizzy...and maybe...but wouldn't the prolonged easterly fetch toaster bath the majority of the region? I guess it all depends on airmass. food for thought i guess.

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  9. 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

    I think I’m going to try Lesco next year… and it is indeed full sun… almost all day. It worked out with all the rain this year, but when we return to Stein next season, it’ll need a ton of water.

    I read clover can result from low nitrogen- just FYI,  which if your lawn was sand not too long ago…maybe try a soil test first? Gunna do mine this year just to check.

  10. 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

    :huh:

    The supply chain woes are not confined to the US only.  It's a global issue, so blaming China is short-sighted.  Not going to get into the origins of the virus.  I'll leave that to the professionals who are investigating it to come up with their conclusions.

    Right now, there is little we can to to free up the logjam until more people come back into the supply chain to move goods faster to where they need to be.

    Moving forward, we as nation, need to make a more concerted effort to bring manufacturing back into this Country.  Globalization and the search for cheaper and cheaper labor by Corporations trying to increase their profit margins, have gotten us into this mess over the last several decades. 

    This x1000. The economy is a complex system not unlike the climate. When people blame supply issues on lazy workers, longshoremen, federal unemployment benefits, China etc etc etc…it is quite literally exactly the same as blaming global warming for a heat wave. Sure it contributes at the margins but at a large scale it’s the interplay of a million different things that gives us that summer heat wave.

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  11. can't help but jump in here-- for personal account 4th quarter *not financial advice*

    XLF- Financials breaking out, 15% of that is Berkshire- if you believe in a cyclical recovery this is for you.

    Crypto- BTC above 46 is a buy...and I like crypto exposed banks- SVB?

    And I like commodities ex gold: Copper (bouncing off of support) and Oil (touching 7 yr highs) especially.

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