Supernovice

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I bet you believed them when they said it was just 15 days to "flatten the curve" to save the hospitals. LOL

And you aren't even vaccinated yet because you claim you are not at risk... what a fraud.

Ok boomer.

That was too easy. I’ll put you down as a ‘maybe’ for liars poker.

Gotta love that the people complaining about the media manipulating the population with negative news are the very same people predicting certain societal breakdowns in our lifetimes. Ironic much?  Negativity sells, always has and always will-  shocking development I know.

Maybe as part of our all but certain dystopian future we don’t allow people born in say 1980 or before access to the internet. Boomers just can’t handle it. The people telling me as a young boy: don’t believe everything you read are the same people now saying you get Alzheimer’s from a vaccine, or that Trump is a Russian agent.

Its like those people that throw around the word snowflake. You just know they are the most thin skinned people out there.  It’s a tell...would love to play liars poker with some of you. Maybe at the next gtg, only if we all get our vaccine passports that the future Orwellian government will mandate of course.

Libertarians exercising their personal right to not get vaccinated.

Libertarian business owners exercising their right to deny service based on vaccine status.

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Any thoughts on whether the ongoing unwind of Archegos could lead to a more general degrossing of hedge fund lending at prime brokers? Some risk officers are probably sweating this morning.  

Haven’t logged in but my pre-market thoughts/ questions are below:

1) When banks take a hit it’s usually on something that is deemed safe but turns out isn’t. I.e. mortgage bonds (GFC) or an arb trade (LTCM). But TRS on single equity names....I mean everyone knows the risks or should- especially people paid to evaluate such things. Did ‘stocks only go up’ get ingested into the risk departments? Really don’t know.

2) what caused this.? These names were 800+% off the lows. There were some downgrades last week and share offerings in these names which put downward pressure. But turns out that 800% was pushed along by one leveraged buyer. After a long time of one way price action, sometimes it doesn’t take much to unravel. Also did the SLR exemption expiration play a role? Maybe.

3) finally...I can’t imagine running a leveraged book on single names using TRS. No idea how he managed to sleep. But imagine being the counterparty on these trades? Like wtf were they thinking? Now you own $20b+ of this shit as of 12/31/20. Oops.

Where is @N. OF PIKE when you need him? This is his dream scenario. Things could get messy here.

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

More Tiger Cubs blowing up?

What looked like alpha was in retrospect leveraged beta. I know they aren’t the only ones. 

I’m firmly in the camp that this is no biggie...but there are people that want to see the system blow up. The easiest way to do that is through a liquidity crunch. Tonight and tomm would be when that would reveal itself, if it were going to happen at all (which it won’t- I hope).
 

For those that care about such things... the Asian opening tonight is the most exciting one in awhile given what took place on Friday. It will probably open with a whimper but for those that want to see things unravel- tonight/ Tomm has a chance to make some noise.

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Crap. Where is that?  Looks like a canal, and that f.ucker is blocking the entire thing.

The Suez- so ya know... no big deal. I think it’s moving, but then heard it’s damaged and traffic still can’t pass. Oil up 5.5%

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

lol. Not something I'd ever considered before, but there's probably a surprisingly large addressable market for that sort of thing, at least for flatulence sourced from celebrities. Like, what would Wiz pay for a certified T Swift toot? Maybe we should set up a shell company and do a SPAC...

Bot wkey right before they halted for 12, and DSS because they will prob have some pr soon similar to what wkey released. Obviously happy so far but don’t plan on holding Wkey through the weekend, maybe not even overnight.

NFT’s are a joke as far as I’m concerned but with this price action gotta at least mess around in the day trading account.

She’s underway and on the move- rejoice.

However rough your day today turns out to be, at least we’re not this helmsman. I think she’s still grounded.

Me thinks bonds r oversold here. 

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I haven’t been ,grump much?

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you think it’s gonna snow because the FV3 says so in a super marginal airmass.. I don’t know what to tell you. We tried to tell em.. winters over . Will they listen or will they buy heavy snow Thursday night?

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noones getting snow. Unless your eggs are in FV3 basket. Sheared , weak, south 

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When there isn’t even 1? 

6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I was referring more to eps chances of snow over 1”

All within just the last 6 hrs. Just give it a rest man. The schtick is old, like so old.

Just now, PhineasC said:

Ok, so you are not vaccinated? Kinda weird to hear that. Stay safe out there. 

Zero doses that’s correct, and that’s not weird at all given my demographic so...?

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Did you get your second dose yet?

Mid thirties perfectly healthy...not sure what my vaccine status has to do with dealing in facts, and that’s all I was stating—facts. I get you’re vaccine hesitant and that’s a personal decision- no judgement here.

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I haven’t checked on the latest science, but I don’t think the vaccine has any magical powers beyond just triggering what your own body does when you get COVID, so if you just had COVID there is little reason to get the vaccine right now. 

You haven’t checked the science? I’m absolutely shocked by that development.
 

The science says vaccines produce a materially more robust immune response than natural infection.

30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nasdaq regained its 50 day moving average and some stimulus money will also add to stock market Speculation next 2 weeks . Bullish technicals are back 

markets will probably give back a little tomorrow as they have rocked the last 3 days But things look technically much better 

technically speaking... this was a fantastic day, and still running AH's.

Underreported- given rate changes there will be a lot of rebalancing of institutional money at quarter end.  Speaking from experience- I will be reducing eq exposure throughout this month. Just standard rebalancing, but we will not be alone. Will this impact markets...ehhh maybe a bit as we work through the month. Personally very bullish April and May and much less so as we approach the summer. I see vol persisting for the time being. 

For those w strong stomachs, some of the most loved sectors and individual stocks over the past 6-8 months, in my opinion are oversold. I’m a net buyer here for my personal account, tbh I bought all last week and got murdered, but this is a long game.

$500k? depends on your horizon. 80-20 eq for anything over 10 yrs. I’d split that eq 60-40 us/ non- us. And then break it down further between small/ large cap. The 40 would then be split 25-15 developed/ emerging. All passive index’s, maybe a small active small cap allocation and a small active emerging position. On the FI side, any corporate bond fund would have to be active, any govt bond positions would be passive. All of this is hypothetical of course.

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

520000

17 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

According to some people on here you don't need it

Based on my experience don’t bother.  We can’t say anything because then the Covidiots start spewing even more nonsense and all Covid talk gets shut down.

which actually is better than reading these posts...so maybe attack away? 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wood is Brilliant , I am a fan .

I do read what you write and respect your opinion. Which is why you’re like the only person I interact with on this board re: finance.

My point is and has always been that just to say rates rise= stocks fall isn’t correct. We all know the economy is a complex system, but our primitive brains can’t handle that, so we all get into this mind trap of constructing a neat narrative to explain everything. Will rates rising have a negative impact on short term stock valuations- probably, but to what extent and for how long? What other factors are at play...what’s dollar strength look like, what about the prices of raw materials and commodities? Rates are but one small piece of much larger puzzle.

10 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did 2018 have historic valuations . That is the issue . Did 2018 have “TINA” . Apples and oranges . I’m speaking for sectors that have record valuations .

Rising yields are horrible for speculative growth stocks w sky high valuations .When the earnings and dividend yield on SP 500 falls and Competes   With the yield on bonds people lose T.I.N.A (there is no other option  ) 

 Stocks that have most of their value from not current but future revenue from many years ahead are killed when  yields rise. It’s Really not a debate in any serious circles . Meanwhile cyclicals are favored (Banks / industrials / Real estate ) 

Today we see yields fall back combined with buy the dip being the most rewarding strategy of last 11 months and thankfully we spike 2%  . If valuations were not record breaking in several sectors then rising yields wouldn’t be such a potential issue In those areas . There is a case to be made yields fall back a tad more or remain steady from here, especially as wage increases/amendments  were taken out of stimulus bill today 

I mean I guess if you’re talking specific stocks...maybe? But here goes- not my research but it’s money:

From 1954-1960, the 10 year treasury yield went from 2.3% to 4.7%. In that time, the S&P 500 was up 207% in total (17.4% annualized).

Then from 1971-1981, rates went vertical, rising from 6.2% to 13.7%. This period included sky-high inflation and the brutal 1973-1974 crash, but nominal returns were still pretty decent, at 113% in total (7.1% annual).

From 1993-1994, rates shot up from 6.6% to 8.0%. The S&P 500 was still up nearly 12% in total despite some carnage in the bond market.

At the tail-end of the dot-com bubble, rates rose from 5.5% in 1998 to 6.5% in 1999. Didn’t matter. Stocks were up more than 55% (although that was followed by a 50% crash beginning in early-2000).

From 2003 through 2007, rates went from 3.3% to 5.1%. The S&P rose nearly 83% (12.8% annualized) before the onset of the 2008 crash.

And the latest rising rate environment saw the 10 year go from 1.5% in 2012 to 3% by 2018. Even with the mini-bear market at the end of 2018, stocks were still up 131% in total.

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Futures are up as Market is Seeing Longer dated bond yields fall. Those bonds were extremely oversold so a pullback was likely . Last coupe hours on Friday saw 5-10% move down in yields .

It would be a sort of a nervous rally  bc stocks are acting more reactive to bond yield movement compared to the Other 11 months of  rally when that was not a concern at all . In the sense of any rally is a bit shakier bc should we see bond yields rise up quickly (within hours -they had a mind of their own last week ) markets will build pressure very quickly to sell off (reprice historic valuations lower) As there is a inverse relationship between interest rates and  Stock  valuations 

We don’t agree on much but the debate is always cordial. I would put forth that rising rates are ++ for stocks. For instance see this from 6 yrs ago: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2015/03/fearful-of-rising-rates-stocks-have-you.html 

Also this is different from say 2018 when the curve was volatile on the short end, last week it was the long end...which to me signals economic optimism. Secondly, last week may have been exacerbated by CTA repositioning...the 2/5/10 yr butterfly trade moved 24 bps which is a true black swan event in that market- like literally a 1 in a billion year event if you calc it out. Down week, little flushing...I like the reset here.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone that figured out what was going on early in.. has been able to live a fairly normal way of life 

Oooo look it’s the resident door to door salesman/ armchair epidemiologist... If only we all could have had his great foresight.

47 minutes ago, Angus said:

 

Saw a video of a couple of guys skiing down 2222 in Austin this afternoon on twitter. This is Blizzard of '78 like stuff for Texas right now. 

I know this is ghoulish but....hindsight being 20/20 it seems that constructing your utility grid so it’s completely walled off from the federal grid, because ya know... secessionists, may have a downside.

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

As I’m standing elbow to elbow with dozens of other guys in the bathroom, or airport bar, or seated on the plane while everyone has a thin piece of cloth covering their mouth and hanging below their nose, I kinda start to question the COVID safety narratives still out there. Seems like theater to me.