Supernovice

Just now, PhineasC said:

Ok, so you are not vaccinated? Kinda weird to hear that. Stay safe out there. 

Zero doses that’s correct, and that’s not weird at all given my demographic so...?

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Did you get your second dose yet?

Mid thirties perfectly healthy...not sure what my vaccine status has to do with dealing in facts, and that’s all I was stating—facts. I get you’re vaccine hesitant and that’s a personal decision- no judgement here.

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I haven’t checked on the latest science, but I don’t think the vaccine has any magical powers beyond just triggering what your own body does when you get COVID, so if you just had COVID there is little reason to get the vaccine right now. 

You haven’t checked the science? I’m absolutely shocked by that development.
 

The science says vaccines produce a materially more robust immune response than natural infection.

30 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nasdaq regained its 50 day moving average and some stimulus money will also add to stock market Speculation next 2 weeks . Bullish technicals are back 

markets will probably give back a little tomorrow as they have rocked the last 3 days But things look technically much better 

technically speaking... this was a fantastic day, and still running AH's.

Underreported- given rate changes there will be a lot of rebalancing of institutional money at quarter end.  Speaking from experience- I will be reducing eq exposure throughout this month. Just standard rebalancing, but we will not be alone. Will this impact markets...ehhh maybe a bit as we work through the month. Personally very bullish April and May and much less so as we approach the summer. I see vol persisting for the time being. 

For those w strong stomachs, some of the most loved sectors and individual stocks over the past 6-8 months, in my opinion are oversold. I’m a net buyer here for my personal account, tbh I bought all last week and got murdered, but this is a long game.

$500k? depends on your horizon. 80-20 eq for anything over 10 yrs. I’d split that eq 60-40 us/ non- us. And then break it down further between small/ large cap. The 40 would then be split 25-15 developed/ emerging. All passive index’s, maybe a small active small cap allocation and a small active emerging position. On the FI side, any corporate bond fund would have to be active, any govt bond positions would be passive. All of this is hypothetical of course.

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

520000

17 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

According to some people on here you don't need it

Based on my experience don’t bother.  We can’t say anything because then the Covidiots start spewing even more nonsense and all Covid talk gets shut down.

which actually is better than reading these posts...so maybe attack away? 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wood is Brilliant , I am a fan .

I do read what you write and respect your opinion. Which is why you’re like the only person I interact with on this board re: finance.

My point is and has always been that just to say rates rise= stocks fall isn’t correct. We all know the economy is a complex system, but our primitive brains can’t handle that, so we all get into this mind trap of constructing a neat narrative to explain everything. Will rates rising have a negative impact on short term stock valuations- probably, but to what extent and for how long? What other factors are at play...what’s dollar strength look like, what about the prices of raw materials and commodities? Rates are but one small piece of much larger puzzle.

10 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Did 2018 have historic valuations . That is the issue . Did 2018 have “TINA” . Apples and oranges . I’m speaking for sectors that have record valuations .

Rising yields are horrible for speculative growth stocks w sky high valuations .When the earnings and dividend yield on SP 500 falls and Competes   With the yield on bonds people lose T.I.N.A (there is no other option  ) 

 Stocks that have most of their value from not current but future revenue from many years ahead are killed when  yields rise. It’s Really not a debate in any serious circles . Meanwhile cyclicals are favored (Banks / industrials / Real estate ) 

Today we see yields fall back combined with buy the dip being the most rewarding strategy of last 11 months and thankfully we spike 2%  . If valuations were not record breaking in several sectors then rising yields wouldn’t be such a potential issue In those areas . There is a case to be made yields fall back a tad more or remain steady from here, especially as wage increases/amendments  were taken out of stimulus bill today 

I mean I guess if you’re talking specific stocks...maybe? But here goes- not my research but it’s money:

From 1954-1960, the 10 year treasury yield went from 2.3% to 4.7%. In that time, the S&P 500 was up 207% in total (17.4% annualized).

Then from 1971-1981, rates went vertical, rising from 6.2% to 13.7%. This period included sky-high inflation and the brutal 1973-1974 crash, but nominal returns were still pretty decent, at 113% in total (7.1% annual).

From 1993-1994, rates shot up from 6.6% to 8.0%. The S&P 500 was still up nearly 12% in total despite some carnage in the bond market.

At the tail-end of the dot-com bubble, rates rose from 5.5% in 1998 to 6.5% in 1999. Didn’t matter. Stocks were up more than 55% (although that was followed by a 50% crash beginning in early-2000).

From 2003 through 2007, rates went from 3.3% to 5.1%. The S&P rose nearly 83% (12.8% annualized) before the onset of the 2008 crash.

And the latest rising rate environment saw the 10 year go from 1.5% in 2012 to 3% by 2018. Even with the mini-bear market at the end of 2018, stocks were still up 131% in total.

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Futures are up as Market is Seeing Longer dated bond yields fall. Those bonds were extremely oversold so a pullback was likely . Last coupe hours on Friday saw 5-10% move down in yields .

It would be a sort of a nervous rally  bc stocks are acting more reactive to bond yield movement compared to the Other 11 months of  rally when that was not a concern at all . In the sense of any rally is a bit shakier bc should we see bond yields rise up quickly (within hours -they had a mind of their own last week ) markets will build pressure very quickly to sell off (reprice historic valuations lower) As there is a inverse relationship between interest rates and  Stock  valuations 

We don’t agree on much but the debate is always cordial. I would put forth that rising rates are ++ for stocks. For instance see this from 6 yrs ago: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2015/03/fearful-of-rising-rates-stocks-have-you.html 

Also this is different from say 2018 when the curve was volatile on the short end, last week it was the long end...which to me signals economic optimism. Secondly, last week may have been exacerbated by CTA repositioning...the 2/5/10 yr butterfly trade moved 24 bps which is a true black swan event in that market- like literally a 1 in a billion year event if you calc it out. Down week, little flushing...I like the reset here.

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone that figured out what was going on early in.. has been able to live a fairly normal way of life 

Oooo look it’s the resident door to door salesman/ armchair epidemiologist... If only we all could have had his great foresight.

47 minutes ago, Angus said:

 

Saw a video of a couple of guys skiing down 2222 in Austin this afternoon on twitter. This is Blizzard of '78 like stuff for Texas right now. 

I know this is ghoulish but....hindsight being 20/20 it seems that constructing your utility grid so it’s completely walled off from the federal grid, because ya know... secessionists, may have a downside.

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

As I’m standing elbow to elbow with dozens of other guys in the bathroom, or airport bar, or seated on the plane while everyone has a thin piece of cloth covering their mouth and hanging below their nose, I kinda start to question the COVID safety narratives still out there. Seems like theater to me. 

9 hours ago, Whineminster said:

What a joke.  The kid was on a public board just saying what he thought.  These guys stopped the ability to buy but not sell!!!  The game is rigged. I lost some dough on it but I was prepared to, so whatever! 

What he did- being a registered broker and working for mass mutual, while posting stock picks on the internet is what the SEC is looking at. He prob will and should lose his license, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the CFA did something as well. The rules around this are very stringent. Historically I’ve had to upload my personal accounts to a company platform for real time monitoring, clear trades internally before executing, been barred from owning anything but index funds or combination of all of the above. These rules are taken very seriously by the SEC and any financial company’s HR dept. He’s basically untouchable from a hiring perspective- not that he cares anymore.

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Try nailing a forecast that had 22 inches in Newburyport on the ocean but nada in Gloucester 10 miles south or 12 inches in Westerly RI but 2 on the coast in Charleston RI 7 miles away.

Also the gradient within Tolland city limits was insane. A five inch gradient in one town, ALMOST unheard of. Can’t be expected to nail that.

4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Back up to maybe 1/2 - 3/4 mile vis. Eyeballing 6’’. Guessing I’ll wake up to ~ a foot while there are some epic 20’’ amounts just to my SE. oh well. 

I think that’s going to be me...prob a foot here already- it has been incredible. 

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Anyone have any good stay and play packages for golf in the New England area? My buddies and I are looking to book for the summer and don’t feel like going down south to Myrtle beach or something 

Red jacket down in Dennis? I think it’s Dennis has a good one. It’s a par 3 course but in excellent shape and very challenging. Also a great jumping off point to play wherever you want on the cape. I did that for a few yrs w my dad...lessons in the morning, all you can play after that. Felt like I was on tour.

sunday river is also great- love that course. Although getting up there is annoying. And I think you’re married to that course if you go up there, although others may know the bethel area better than I.

Eye of the beholder I guess...85% against severe disease and 100% against death. Single dose. No cold storage.

My opinion is that this is a great day for the less developed world in particular. If you told me a year ago we’d be in this spot re:vaccines I would have taken it and ran. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Those results from JnJ are about as good as one could expect. Great day for the world.

In other news, today we go to the moon. Lol

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, but maybe someone else knows what he was talking about...

He was comparing you to DT- aka dick tolleris . Beyond that I dunno

edit: wait is that DT’s actual name?- lol

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The thing that makes the Pope look really bad is he was so adamant he was going to be right.. was very smug about it. Then when he was 110% wrong... he didn’t own up to and admit his mistake. He just stopped posting. Everyone makes mistakes and busts. But own  up to it @jbenedet. Learn and understand why it happened and where you went wrong. Your’re fresh out of college and young. Don’t just run away with the deflated football. It’s a really bad look 

ill just leave this here:

7 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I'm locked out on Robinhood - I don't think they can do that.  People on WSB are saying file a complaint with the SEC. 

Lol well I was making money yesterday.....today....nah so much. 

Trust me I get the frustration but....Robinhood and others that offer commission free trades are not doing so out of the goodness of their hearts. They sell your order flow to hedge funds that then front you and make you pay slightly more per share...fractions of a cent that you don’t even notice. The selling of order flow is robinhoods business model- that’s it. So when the hedge funds say jump, robinhood is always going ask how high?
 

It’s like your free checking account at whatever bank you use... that’s really paid for by overdraft fees of primarily lower income people, there’s no free lunch anywhere unfortunately

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

If mods are OK with it, I feel strongly about starting a separate, no politics(!) market thread in the SNE forum since people want to talk about it.  I don’t like to clog up the general banter thread.  

Thoughts?  

I tried and got shot down- granted I have no real credibility here as a poster so... But I for one promise to behave if we are given the go ahead.

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don’t they own more patents than anybody? 

They own a ton of good ip ya and they have good recurring rev’s. But that was like 8 yrs ago- haven’t looked at it since.

17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Are you long any retail options recently in the casino

Lol no options with personal money- I have a family. My bubble basket is just amc and bb right now and I’m just in for fun. I liked it more @ close than now. This whole storyline is just so absurd.

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

BB and Nokia actually have some long value potential.  Not so sure about GME and AMC. 

 

I did an lengthy analysis of BB in business school and came away thinking the same as you.

but it’s not the reason I bought it- lol

Into amc at 15.50. Now it’s halted. Never has there been a worse investment thesis.