Supernovice
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Posts posted by Supernovice
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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:
The supply chain woes are not confined to the US only. It's a global issue, so blaming China is short-sighted. Not going to get into the origins of the virus. I'll leave that to the professionals who are investigating it to come up with their conclusions.
Right now, there is little we can to to free up the logjam until more people come back into the supply chain to move goods faster to where they need to be.
Moving forward, we as nation, need to make a more concerted effort to bring manufacturing back into this Country. Globalization and the search for cheaper and cheaper labor by Corporations trying to increase their profit margins, have gotten us into this mess over the last several decades.
This x1000. The economy is a complex system not unlike the climate. When people blame supply issues on lazy workers, longshoremen, federal unemployment benefits, China etc etc etc…it is quite literally exactly the same as blaming global warming for a heat wave. Sure it contributes at the margins but at a large scale it’s the interplay of a million different things that gives us that summer heat wave.
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can't help but jump in here-- for personal account 4th quarter *not financial advice*
XLF- Financials breaking out, 15% of that is Berkshire- if you believe in a cyclical recovery this is for you.
Crypto- BTC above 46 is a buy...and I like crypto exposed banks- SVB?
And I like commodities ex gold: Copper (bouncing off of support) and Oil (touching 7 yr highs) especially.
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I'm not sure which drives more traffic here, dew talk or frost talk...we'll have to go to the judges on this one.
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well the bad man with the air compressor stopped by yesterday- no more sprinklers for the season- seems early to me but whatever.
lawn looks great- until i put a giant spiderweb/spiders on it- will try and take a pic later
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1 hour ago, A Moonlit Sky said:
Embarrassing Yankees game to end an embarrassing season.
ya just HATE to see it.
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Hey guys- update- followed your advice...bought that green electric de-thatcher linked above- followed by fert/seed...things look fantastic. So now what's the plan for the spring?
I wanna use the crab grass stuff scott talked about...do i do a spring dethatching or anything? and i presume no seed if i use the crabgrass control.
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16 minutes ago, snowman21 said:
What does this mean for places like Florida and Louisiana which have lots of people living in low lying areas? The Florida coast is densely populated, so do millions of people suddenly see their flood insurance premiums spike?
Short answer Yes- by the maximum 1 year increase allowed under law until they reach the market rate. Which for most is 25-30 yrs.
Just googled 'flood insurance increase' and the first link is KATC- Louisiana.
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At the risk of beating a dead horse....this is the 1st year that unsubsidized flood insurance takes effect. Increases are limited to like I dunno $1,300 a year or something....but in 30 yrs there are going to be places that become unaffordable to many (assuming no further legislation).... So at least before it becomes uninhabitable my bet is that coastal areas gentrify at an exceptional rate. There is a certain segment of the population that has no problem paying $30k cash a yr for flood insurance... while the less fortunate get pushed inland.
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15 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:
Can you provide the report this is from?
This is connected to the Task Force for Climate Related Disclosure (TCFD). TCFD defines climate-related risk as either Physical or Transitional.
For physical risk, physical risk can either be defined as acute or chronic. Acute being weather as we know it, but with the increased ferocity of weather events that is expected to be realized as the climate changes. Chronic being connected to rising sea levels, changes in precipitation patterns, etc.
Transitional risk centers around identify those financial investments that may ultimately be stranded as the economy transitions from high- to low-carbon intensive.
TCFD is designed to assist financial institution with also identifying opportunities for sound financial investment in changing economy.
Here you go, gotta create a free account to read it tho:
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I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:
The 00z Euro ( operational ...) is almost 90th percentile ( eye-balling method ..) for concern along the EC.
The confluence passing into the Maritimes, evidenced in the 500 mb synoptic evolution, is all indirectly tied to a -d(NAO), which in theory ...blocks TCs from passing seaward once they've succeeded the 'key slot' climo (60 naut mi N of PR). More over, the situation of a closed 500 mb trough over WV... mm, just needs another contour ( but may be enough ); but as is, the differential in heights between it, and NE of Bermuda, guides the track extrapolation of that hurricane pretty comfortably to a position somewhere between ROA, VA and the 70th longitude line by imagining, a-priori, a day 11 .. 13 circumstance.
Unfortunately ... ( or fortunately, depending upon one's personal approach to this stuff ) that day 11 (bold) makes much of this less than entirely useful to any deterministic forecasting. But it sure is interesting to look at!
Place your bets on who will be the first to disregard all stated caveats above, and lead with "Cat 5 landfall imminent in the S.E. U.S.".
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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:
Here is the correct pic
Do you rent or own- if you rent -Can you spray it and then throw some caulking up there and seal that crack?
If you own I'd call someone out there and see if they can find the nest- I wouldn't go poking around my walls without at least some idea of where i was looking. just me tho.
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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
What’s that supposed to mean? Consequences of physical climate risk? That right there is called weather happens.
Correct-ish, Physical and financial…this is all encompassing, private equity, business loans, real estate- literally everything. But below is the breakout. The indirect impacts are the largest like supply chain disruption, lost productivity etc. I think this is about a lot more than weather. Gotta think this impacts our children’s lives tremendously.
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Really interesting report I saw today- cliff notes:
28 of the largest U.S. financial institutions hold $2.2T in syndicated loan exposure. Impact of climate change could be 10% of that portfolio or $200-250B. Which wow- that is NOT priced in. Below is from the report.
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20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:
11% of ALL high yield bonds from Asia are Evergrande’s and they do not look to be paying on them ...I bet most major banks have significant exposure
No disagreement here— one would think someone is about to learn a hard lesson. I just haven’t seen it in the spreads outside of China CDS. I guess we’ll see.
greater risk for China is doing nothing…I’m not sure they are keen on dealing with mass protests which will certainly occur if they don’t provide any liquidity or government cash. Seems like we are risk on today at least to start- but volatility works both ways so not unexpected.
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In all seriousness— this correction was set in motion in June. Markets were extended…there wasn’t a pullback in the late spring- which I had predicted. September is a historically weak month for returns…I saw something like the week after sept option exp is negative 25 outta 29 times or something with the avg drawdown being 94 bps.
what I’m saying is the smart money had been looking for some consolidation for some time, inst. money rebalancing into quarter end…and maybe a little liquidity event in China…that’s how you get here…I see choppiness through this week, and then we’re back on the escalator back up through year end.
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4 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:
Are we on the verge of a 2008 type China induced global recession?
Yes- but I’ll buy any stocks that you wanna sell at these levels tho.
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Cranked the heat to 90 and had ourselves a nice final pool party for the season. Surprisingly warm in the sun today.
Question is— past Wednesday does it continue?
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Gas man came yesterday, so of course it'll be:
pool temp: 85
air temp: 55
Shoulda closed her.
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When are you guys doing fall fert and seed? Thinking this week...am I too early?
What's up w/ that de-thatcher? I rented one from HD when I was trying to save my previous lawn- what a pain in the ass. That for fall use? Do you use it every yr?
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:
To be fair ... I am not sure that it is mine, per se. But I get what you meant... I am not sure which came first, my bloviating, or whether reviewed/officiated science on the matter was just happening all along unwittingly to myself - probably the latter. With millions of minds looking, pensively peering over environmental facets these days ...very few novel ideas are really out there. It's more of race to be published first, while half their reader's are all going, "Yeah, we know/knew this 10 years ago... " But the point is, it's saturating content everywhere. Most respectable enthusiasts, to normal climate and Met folk alike are aware.
- Thanks. I guess I'm really thinking about wrong...interesting...will be watching for more airline ground speed records incoming regardless.
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Edit: Quoted the wrong post
Tip--The question on my mind... as a fan of your Hadley cell observations etc for many yrs....do we see a snap-back mid/late Oct- snowbomb? The +2sd anomalies have to be offset somewhere/ at some point right? I know that's an oversimplification but?
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8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:
A heater would make it nice. But my pool is likely done for the season. Too bad since some nice weather upcoming.
What does a heater cost to install and run?5k for heater and install… I have two large propane tanks- those are free if you sign a contract with a gas co. Those are like $750 to refill. Usually do that twice, this yr 3 times. I’ve figured it heats mine (about 25k gallons) about two degrees per hour. I can’t recommend it enough tbh. This is my 2nd yr with it.
My neighbor put in an electric same time as me and he has to keep it running thurs- sun for weekend activities which I would imagine gets pricey.
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Met Fall 2021 Banter.
in New England
Posted
I read clover can result from low nitrogen- just FYI, which if your lawn was sand not too long ago…maybe try a soil test first? Gunna do mine this year just to check.