Supernovice

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah that trough amplitude was in the 00z mean, too.  I mentioned this morning that the ens means were (all 3) apparently emerging but I haven't had a chance to take in the 12z. I did see the operational GFS (ew) and got pissed.  Lol

Unrelated but see your infamous light year speed jet stream is engaged tonight. Europe bound flights over the N. Atlantic doing ~750mph ground speed.

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I believe they have multiple properties.

From what i understand they were there earlier today, left…a cop who had it under surveillance saw a shadow move/ a curtain flutter…. So now they’re back….again little idea if that’s true but  would make sense.

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

where are you hearing this? 

https://x.com/station_51_/status/1717517073553744244?s=46&t=ej91V1PwyPgv_VUNXsO_yQ

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This the latest?

Correct, no way of verifying if that’s him or even true given the current state of things…but they are looking for that truck. Should have said *stolen out of Oxford, me*

BOLO- Blue Suburban out of Boxford, Me on 93s, near NH/MA border...93s during rush hour- not the cleanest escape route.

Anyone else notice Tim Kelley step off the deep end with politics? The other day I noticed a quasi CC denying post, and was like hmmm…now he’s jumping into the border and immigration situation. Seems like something one would want to avoid.

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

SW lower Michigan is in some kind of exotic trouble this evening...  jesus.

93/80 at Kalamazoo, with S sfc wind, NW at 700 mb, and SRS just S of a warm boundary that is currently collapsing S of Lake Michigan.  Meanwhile, the inversion cloud wave forms have just gone... vanquished, which means their losing CIN - the 'core is exposed'

That watch is for the whole gambit.   SBCAPEs must be like over 4000

From MI last night:

https://x.com/goddessofgrain/status/1695039462583992733?s=46&t=ej91V1PwyPgv_VUNXsO_yQ

There are certainly some major MAJOR US military installations under threat from this thing. I keep thinking of one in particular constructed on a dry lake bed in Nevada that may not be dry after this.

2 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

If your whole lawn looks like that, I don't know if it needs an overseed. I would just hit it with fertilizer. That looks pretty dense, but pics can be deceiving sometimes.

I mean basically yes, but I have some rust spots I gotta take out etc…it’ll look worse after I’m done with it ha.

I do- with water sensor. But ya I dunno I might wait until mid next week when I stop in to hit it one more time then overseed and fertilize. Thunderstorms tonight scare me. Anyways here’s the result, shrunken and manipulated down to fit here- which was surprising tough.

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Just had the entire lawn stripped, regraded, loamed and seeded. Seed went down on Monday and it's popping pretty good. A little early, but given the pattern decided to go for it. 

Kinda my thought- can’t beat the pattern. Also will be away for the next two weeks and before you know it, I’ll be running up against climatological first frost- I like 6 weeks between seeding and frost. Oh well- going for it. Thanks for the input!

Am I crazy for thinking about dethatching and seeding today… 2 weeks early-ish? Any thoughts?

Off Jenness in Rye, Nh

55 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

You're also conflating the raw calculation of std deviation (which is divorced from whether or not the data is normally distributed) vs a recurrence interval (which requires the PDF) - and the latter isn't mentioned in the tweet.

Listen- I don’t want to argue the point to death. That chart is crap- it’s been reposted a million times, not just here, I was going to post about it regardless if anything was on here- it’s not a personal attack on you at all. 

The data is very very concerning but let’s represent it in an accurate format. That’s all I’m saying.

15 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

what in the fuck is going on in Antarctica...

 

This stuff is beyond infuriating. Let me preface my quick rant by saying climate change is undeniably real.

Now- you can see in the data that almost every year produces at least multiple 1-2 sigma events. This means the data is not normally distributed which makes sense because weather is not normally distributed (I.e doesn’t fall in a bell curve). So when that happens you need to normalize your data in order to then analyze it.

what you don’t do is call it good enough and claim we are under going a 6 sigma event. It ruins the credibility of the science of CC not to mention your own. This stuff is scary enough, I don’t know why charlatans have to exaggerate and obfuscate- it’s unreal.

Anyone have the app or website that Epstein is referencing below?

also pretty dark sh*t that I’m going to add it to my favs on all platforms. 

Woulda been cool if they got Jim Cantore, but I’ll settle for Jim Catnore I guess.

Anyone wondering about the cause:

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That cityscape reminds me of San Francisco in 2020

Someone posted the AQI is double in NYC now, compared to what it was in SFO in 2020. Wild stuff

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well in any case... it's not like we didn't know it was coming.

Did we ever have this when we were growing up- i.e. 80's? I don't recall it...ever. 

And I feel like I would remember this post apocalyptic sky.

looking to my east: smoke on the horizon.

Was just going to post this- she’s gorgeous. Doesn’t get much more textbook. 

23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

insane!

Smoke fetishists:

Not all hero’s wear capes

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Can't read the article, but did they really call the 3-year La Nina unprecedented? They're certainly uncommon but not sure if I would categorize it as unprecedented. There have been several dating back to the late 1800's and multiple within the ONI dataset going back to 1950.

money quote:

"First, is that typically La Niña follows El Niño, but this is an example of a La Niña event that had no preceding El Niño. That’s not completely impossible, but unlikely. The second thing is, we had this La Niña event that lasted for three years that didn’t follow an El Niño. That is unprecedented. Previous long-lasting La Niñas have always happened after a strong El Niño.”