osfan24

The Euro has been awful this winter. That said, like PSU mentioned, we do know the Euro/NAM have a bias of amping these Milller B's too much and often the actual cutoff is 50 miles or so east of what those models show. So if you take that into account and that bias still exists, it looks more like the GFS and you can forecast off of that. But that's just for this particular setup, so obviously for other setups, it is still an issue. It also seems like the GFS has performed better this winter after it had been upgraded. We will see if it wins this one. It has company with the CMC, which usually seems to side more with the Euro.

The JMA being so amped was one of the few things we had going for us. That run makes a lot more sense given where the other models currently stand. The goalposts continue to narrow. Going to need to get Justin Tucker out here to have a prayer.

Wow, GFS and Euro are not at all on the same page still. Gonna be heartbreak or a huge celebration for coastal regions.

Nice small step forward, but we need to keep going that direction now. Can't afford steps back in future runs. It just doesn't quite get going soon enough for us. Still just way too far off the coast.

The NAM is rolling. Can it pull us back in?

The current tracks are actually quite climo.

Sure, it is possible, but the goalposts are narrowing and even with the usual overamped NAM and Euro, we are on the very southwest edge of the decent snows. Time is running out for a boom scenario. But the runs today should give us the clarity I would think.

I think the phrase is "it's getting late, early." Looks like all the models are realizing it's a Miller B in a La Nina.

Oh boy. That's really ugly, and not just for us. NYC gets almost nothing and Boston is not getting crushed.

Same. Some people acting like the storm is moving due north and so is the precip and all that stuff in SC is getting up here. Nope.

Yeah, the next run will show a significant amount more, but 12z should give us the whole picture, even if it's at range.

Hahaha I hope, man. You can have it all if I get 20 inches.

People saying 15-20 inches in DC? LOL.

Yeah, some are getting carried away. The low was almost past our latitude by the time the NAM ended. That said, it does look like the potential for a widespread warning event for most of us. It was still clear that the focus was going to be along the coast, however.

It looks good at 78 but then 81 and 84 it drifts too far east. You can see it goes from rain to snow in OC in that time period and the heaviest snows are right on the coast. Either way, I'll take it. Another solid step forward from the NAM. Just keep sharpening that trough.

But except for the 970 outlier, those are still too far east. It's better for sure, but we need it tucked more than that.

Not great. Would do anything for the 970 just southeast of OC. That's perfect.

Yeah, it has to be much sharper for us to have a shot. That's been a frustrating aspect.

I'm sure the GFS solution is ultimately closest to the correct one. I've been shouting about teleconnections for days with this. But I'm rooting for the Euro closing off sooner scenario and bombing us and hoping for a historical, unprecedented event here.

The ensemble map definitely is a tad better. Going to start needing some bigger leaps here in the next 48 hours, however.

Hopefully the JMA progressive bias thing is still a thing. Would give some hope.

Just shift it southwest a tiny bit and we boom. Too bad it's almost certainly wrong lol.

No doubt. The CMC snowfall map is literally what every Miller B in a La Nina looks like. Boston gets dumped on, NYC can go either way and then snowfall drastically reduces the farther southwest you go. The hope is one finally breaks our way, but we all know what is 99 percent likely to happen.

Yeah our best coastal storms are always lows juuuuust off OCMD, not lows out in the middle of the ocean. Hopefully, we get another few shifts west and we can get it there, but the GFS op is nowhere remotely close. Maybe the Euro can give us some false hope.

Did the CMC snowfall map ever come out?