jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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This really is a warmer version of Memorial Day wknd. I’d be seriously enjoying these rainy cool breaks if not for the terrible timing...
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My guess is the first trough misses but influences a more northerly track. At that point it depends if a ridge builds over the top of it, or another deep trough comes in first and sends it OTS. Landfall discussions are pointless at this juncture. I’m just saying the initial recurve happens earlier and makes it an east coast threat instead of a west coast FLA., GOM, threat.
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My guess is this ends up much further east. SE coast threat. Big trough over the east—much earlier recurve. Trough will miss but influence a more northward track than current guidance.
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Yea I see that. That is my base case but CPC certainly seeing something quite different. Hedge accordingly.
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I’m just hoping for clouds at this point...
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I can’t stand this weather. It’s not even July yet and I if I had to guess I’d say I have seen 10+ days of 90+ highs and 70+ lows already this year. We are going to get a wonderful break but it’s certainly far from over. The low temps have consistently been running well above normal. A 70+ low in summer is feeling quite normal, expectations wise, unfortunately.
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Yea. For Death Valley.
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0z Euro is alone vs GFS Ukie and Canadian. And yesterday’s 12z euro looked a lot like what the rest of global guidance is showing... It’s a high confidence bet still but the models couldn’t make it too easy for us...
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Just finished walking the dog. Very steamy still. My guess is temps don’t fall much at all from here, given some clouds, light wind...and dews rising slightly into tomorrow morning. 78 for a low tomorrow morning a.m. in Dover, if I had to throw something out there.., What are the record high low temps...?
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Man up. Winter season is sooo much more exhausting than this. Heat kills many more Americans per yr than TC’s. Probably should focus on the heat if you’re feeling overloaded by “hype “...
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“WAR strength”. Heh. That’s an unequivocal —NAO next weekend.
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Sure, What are the limiting factors while it is over water? There.
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Dry air entrainment only limiting factor, and that will be a function of how organized the circulation becomes. If it tightens up here, it could well create a moisture pocket, and continue to quickly organize. As you noted shear itself is low—modest structural organization will go a long way in this case.
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The ones with no recurve/trough interaction up through landfall —like this one—are the most dangerous in this respect. Imo. ...
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For the 4th weekend, persistence bet is the worst of it ends up in SNE and Northern Mid Atlantic. Another “best in Maine” opportunity. Sig -NAO look. The wet get wetter and the dry get dryer.
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A warmer version of this past Memorial Day weekend.
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The model crack smoking started out west, and it’s manifesting in real time. The latest GFS runs in the context of the craziness out west makes a lot of sense actually...The yin and the yang. A highly anomalous UL ridge out west...begets a highly anomalous UL trough in the East? Physical equations. Mother Nature finding a way to amplify baroclinic waves with summer climo and temperatures across the CONUS by breaking physical limitations out west significantly to the up side...
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Versus one year ago. Worse in NNE, much better in SNE.
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Large increase of drought conditions in NH and Maine. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
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In terms of a tropical threat—the Gulf Stream where this disturbance currently is, is certainly warm enough. The issue I see, especially out 12+ hrs is dry air. Does still look like it will be an important pc of Friday’s weather forecast though...
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Probably going to end up with 0.25” for today and yesterday, combined. Now back to a stretch of fair weather.
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Teleconnection wise this could be transient. Looks like the WAR flexes over very short term and then we’re back in a -NAO ish regime. MJO phase 1 aligns similarly.
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Looks like persistence this week. Largely dry fropa in northern and eastern areas followed by Canadian airmass.
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If NNE doesn’t cash in on appreciable rain the next 2 days, drought conditions going to jump this week. Starting to see shades of drought in the vegetation now, even in southern most areas.
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GFS/GEFS hinting at tropical development off the SE Coast around day 4, and surface HP precluding a quick escape East. Not much of a signal but it’s late June in New England and the summer doldrums...so..we watch....
