jbenedet

You have the mental capacity of a squirrel. Emotions change like the wind and perceptions of forecasts that were never made. No one can fix that but you. And being that you’re a man child like @WinterWolfand @Damage In Tollandit’s too late.

38/33 Rain.

What’s the over under on a sunny day tomorrow?

Oh the leader of the snow weenie pack. Guy still lost. CON-fluence. BS. Effin’ UL +height anoms over our heads. Has been that way for days. Northern stream shortwave (kicker) kickin’ weenies in the nuts. .

Just looking at the sky, wouldn’t even think a storm was coming to the northeast. Star gazing night; no halo around the moon.

That was my latest, but can’t help if we have a bunch of boomers with dementia in here.

Early mid level occlusions are a bitch. Tend to shunt east; and delay phasing. Balance is strongly in favor of disappointment unless you’re talking bowling ball theme in late winter/early spring.

Clowns will clown. Antecedent airmass sucks. Check Confluence over northeast gone. Check Northern stream comes in late. Check. Good luck in southern SNE.

Good luck. Even your beloved GFS is slowly selling your snow.

I’m liking this event a lot less at the moment; the airmass out ahead has evolved to marginal and the northern stream which could deliver on both fronts is coming too late. The RGEM surface temps are very likely a lot more realistic than the NAM on Tues. That’s trouble. You need the trailing northern stream shortwave to hook up with this.

3 days worth of catching up for the GFS, and still behind. The NAM is even worse. Be careful with them GFS clown maps in SNE; bc GFS has highest QPF.

Mid levels are north, but not by much 50 miles—ish. H7 goes over SE New England.

Eh. It bears remembering: “A butterfly flaps its wings…” small errors in the short term are amplified out in time. RE: downstream upper level heights.

This.

NAM and GFS thermals continue to suck. Cold Bias beware. NAM never had breaking 40.

Today’s warm sector and tomorrow 60 near BOS probably have guidance and many that follow, jumping off the suppression train.

I don’t see suppression here; instead it’s just the trailing shortwave acting more as a kicker. If there is more phasing this comes much further north imo.

This event is lost on me so far. Still… Looking for the perceived “wall” in the northeast; I don’t see it—not at the surface, 850 or 500. Certainly not a high enough wall for potent shortwave to overcome, with long wave spacing that has the span of the CONUS to amplify…850 cold anoms are on the back side of this; not out ahead over the northeast US or SE Canada. That’s a red flag arguing against suppression. There’s also a flip flop in NAO conditions as the storm makes its closest approach, neg state to positive. Less confluence; warmer. It also means faster track. With that, I believe the 12z GFS seems like the best case scenario; snow-wise. I wouldn’t benchmark that as the most likely outcome.

Good call on this one. GFS was right. I was wrong. Still of course needs to verify but GFS is beating the competition through 6 innings.

With this I'm gonna say the GFS op is still the outlier.

The 12z GEFS shows a clear nod to the CMC evolution. It's much more clear in the GEFS than the op.

Safe to say don't really know where this goes from here. Uncertainty went up vs 18 hrs ago. Information too unreliable right now. Wait and see mode again...

There's still huge discrepancies just on how strong the southern stream vort is, and speed of it,, pretty early on around day 4 nevermind phasing. Kinda shocked by this, actually.

GFS looked more like CMC mid levels. I do think this was a shift towards other guidance, just didn't show much in the latitude gain factor in terms of sensible weather.