jbenedet

This is evolving in a way that the follow up shortwave over the Midwest around hr 144 will be the key interaction influencing the recurve.

Eastern Canada trend - trough fadin’

Great post^ I'm just gonna put this one here, because that mean track is being pretty well followed per the latest NHC cone.... We watch.

REALLY dry air, is also REALLY dense air...And that's also observed in a data sparse region so we might want to take the over on how strong that ridge is... Better bet due to both influences--weaker TC, and stronger high--you want to hedge strongly in favor of a track further west and south at least to the bahamas...

Seeing the NAO is shifting from postive to deeply negative over the next 7 days. Looks like trending towards an east-based -NAO... That will shake the forecast track up for sure...

Not exactly... It's still a long shot but.... What you do need is for the longwave trough in eastern Canada to weaken...That's the "block" as it pertains to all of the east coast... On the euro AI all trends are in the right direction...weaker trough in eastern canada, stronger western atlantic ridge, and deeper shortwave over the Midwest.

If you have the 6z EPS lat/long (TC position) @ hr 144, but 6z GEFS ULL intensity over eastern canada @ hr 144, that is a very interesting final solution...

I believe the trend is to overall deamplify the players over the CONUS—the PNA ridge and the gyre over Eastern Canada. The teleconnections across the board are trending to neutral over the next 10 days. It’s spectacularly boring on that front. We’re pretty much left with just the background climate. With that, this will be a nice test case to see how much easterly flow we can develop without a deep trough over eastern US; i.e. how much of our background climate has actually changed as it relates to the higher heights regularly observed over the western Atlantic.

Just an observation - but looking at this again, it's almost as though the entirety of the synoptic scale flow over NA subtly moving east to west. Pretty cool.

I agree that the troughing in the western atlantic looks very unfavorable to an east coast hit, but the syntopic scale ridge out west is deamplifying, and sliding west, while the western atlantic ridge is building west. Both those trends are favorable to a close approach..

In my opinion the GEFS/EPS are telling us that too much latitude early on will not be the issue for a potential track close to New England. We have pretty solid agreement on that within 10 days. What is a much bigger issue is the strength of the western Atlantic ridge after day 10. This critical piece is seeing huge run to run variation, so tons of uncertainty there… Imo this will be a long and fun one to track at least.

So ridiculous to be riding op runs for east coast landfalls on a wave that emerged off coast of Africa yesterday morning… Everything from a recurve east of NS to a track into the keys is on the table… Model junkies…

Pretty sure you’d be washed into the GOM on this one.

Hazy. More significant than this time yesterday…. Affect of a thin overcast today…big hit to to UVI at the moment….

Persistent Drought and late summer UL ridging over the western Atlantic. Yea we will restore balance….via the tropics…

Smoke haze generally sucks, but silver lining in reducing the UV index, while we bone dry for at least another week here

I should complain more. Nice bump north on the 6z euro and 12z NAM. We take.

I’m not sympathetic to the sod scapes with grasses that aren’t drought/heat resistant. But when you’re torching even the Texas species—yea, that’s a legit problem. That’s what I’m saying. I don’t want to go off into a big tangent here but water run off is also a city problem and lawns promote risk mitigation when too much rain is a problem. All I’m saying is the cities can’t have all of this without some balance and support when things are persistently dry.

It does look like we have quite the baroclincity for Thurs to work with for the calendar—> surface to mid level frontogenesis. So I could buy something like the 6z Rgem, at the same time I do believe that area will be narrow and cold front esque in distribution on the north side. All about where this sets up bc you’ll have sig subsidence just to the north of that boundary, and not much just to the south of it either. West and south into upstate NY and PA look best setup for the broad 0.75” + amounts. Don’t think that changes. They also need the rain much less than we do…

Yea it’s been brutal for those who care about their property. A lot of up keep, expensive water bills. And still dog shit aesthetic results because, you’re fighting too much in mid summer through a chunk of august. and the conservation of water initiatives rolled out by local cities are counter to green scaping to reduce UHI/global warming affects.They have to figure something out on this.

Moderate+ Drought is again a real problem for a chunk of us. Really hoping Thursday drying trend on guidance flips today. Could really use an 1”+ from that here

Hoping this fog sticks for a chunk of the day. Pleasant surprise this morning. Anything to eliminate another potential HHH weekday.

I don’t understand that at all. This is where we live; we’re not on vacation. Rain keeps everything looking good and the water bills and effort way down.

Really tired of the summer drought persistence around here. still not a drop. drove into wells ME yesterday noticed tons of scorched vegetation along the way.

I agree. Covid did a lot to muddy the underlying climate driven trend —appeal to move to warmer regions with shorter cold/flu season and less restrictions —but it’s becoming more apparent with that shock behind us.