romba

Usually Kuchera shows much more ‘realistic’ totals for those marginal snow storms, but with this it shows more consistently. Is that due to potential ratios? Does it take wind into account?

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its the 84 hour Nam. I'm getting bashed for talking about the Nam on another forum lol

Yea let’s discuss ICON instead lol. It’s between global runs, we need SOMETHING to look at, so the NAM it is

Just now, MJO812 said:

LOCK HER UP....err I mean LOCK IT IN

12Z

Euro:

UKIE

GFS

CMC

Just now, TriPol said:

Any word on the EURO?

About to crush

Edit: already posted

Cut those totals in half and we’re still talking about a BEAST of a storm wow

0Z Ukie showed no snow for the city, LI, and immediately N and W of the city.

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Good Luckas for 12/16 event I would be concerned about much accumulating snow south of I78 - unless the EURO starts trending south - still a wide range of solutions from the wound up warm 0Z EURO OP to the 0Z very cold Canadian OP............

A blend would be really nice...

GGEM OP was on board for a big event until this afternoon.

Canadian says No

I think the Para GFS has had more head-fakes than the original.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Back to tracking once again

Nice highs showing up to the north. Models are a mess right now figuring  out the pattern. 

Too often those HPs slowly back off and we get Cut

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Models starting to catch on to the vortex getting attacked ?

Euro with a nice track, weak on precip:

At least we don't have 3 inches of salt accumulating on bone dry surfaces that you can taste whenever there's the slightest breeze outside. It's the little victories these days.

I’m probably totally off base here, but where were these studies when we were buried under snow year in and year out just a few years back? Increased water temps lead to more snow and amped systems, until it doesn’t and then the increased warmth leads to warmth and no snow.

I’m not familiar with the research, but it just seems to match whatever temporary cycle we currently are in, which is a huge issue in general with data and research nowadays.

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Give me one or two of these tracks later in winter and we'll all be happy....

We've had a few the past few years at the peak of winter, it just hasn't worked out. Alot of 'surface reflectivity not matching the upper levels' and 'precip field is catching up to the changes aloft' that never manifested.

OTOH, during our feast years I remember a number of coastal huggers bombing off and producing solid snow for the coast.

3 hours ago, Neblizzard said:

Models can’t be trusted 24 hours out let alone 15 days out.  It’s amazing you always post when they show an unfavorable solution for snow.  The models are finally predicting warming closing in on the polar stratosphere .  If the PV stretches then cold air can plunge south mid-late December into January for the east. 

True, but a bit hyperbolic. 48 hours you tend to get a solid picture of even the more complex systems. At 72 hrs most models are close enough to each other to know a real risk or not. But anything more than that is just popcorn fodder.

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

84 hr 18z NAM

12Z Euro with a pressure drop of 12 mb in 6 hours

15 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Wonderful morning. 1.4" new with ongoing light snow - more just up the hill from me, where roads turned slushy. I had my doubts early this morning when temps were holding steady in the upper 30, but the models handled the CAA and dynamic cooling well

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

.  what a s***y morning.  cold as hell and raining.  37 and rain, while 20-30 miles north is getting dumped on. winter ova.

Our forum in a nutshell the past 3+ years

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

.  what a s***y morning.  cold as hell and raining.  37 and rain, while 20-30 miles north is getting dumped on. winter ova.

define 'dumped on' lol