romba

6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Yes east but stronger, still inside the BM zone at 90. 

Greater intensification, but weaker rates

CMC east so far

Looked like the GFS took another step closer to the Euro. That second eastern low robs some moisture and energy from our area though

*Puts on Doorman Costume*:

Some will win

some will lose

I choose the former

what about you?

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Forky said in the last storm to use 10 to 1.

I think he said to start at 10:1 and adjust from there based on temp profiles. Kuchera doesn't account for all heights I believe.

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

I'm interested to see where the 0z runs end up, the canadian model has been great this winter, if that holds and the euro shifts that will give me some hope. if not we get em' next year

Canadian hasn’t been quite as good recently, it was the last to cave to GFS on todays hugger

I'm tired of these Miller Bs and their primary lows that hang on juuuust long enough for us to get a cold rain/mix. Do Miller As exist anymore?

FIANLLY some weenie maps to gawk at. We've barely even had those this winter- at least I can get my hopes up for a day or two again like back in December.

4 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

0% till Sunday/Monday then dead till the 18th, when some tail end period snow might happen.      Basically FORGET SNOW for the City till week 3 when I am sure you all will be able to muster up some wet flakes to make at least one snowball.

 

40-50% for 1 inch of snow or more the city seems high even for 384 hours, but that could be my negativity speaking

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

South, not a bad spot rn. 

Nice signal on the GFS, just 9 short days away 

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Averages have to come from somewhere.


.

Yup, for every 50+ year we have last year and this year. +sst were often cited as juicing already amped but cold coastals in the 2010's, now they're cited as a reason the Atlantic often doesn't cooperate.

I love the summer and warmth, but during that first cold spell in October when you start to check out the models to see what's cooking for November, the hope is palpable. It's rough when it doesn't amount to anything. Though tracking-wise, last year was worse than this year in the sense that we had many more storms look good in the 5-7 day range (one model would tend to cling until 3-4 days giving us weenies one last breath before going under), this year we get our hopes dashed much earlier. Usually it's clear 7 days out across all the models that we're gonna rain, which is easier on the soul. Progress I guess?

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowman19 is back

Matter of time 

The data he posted though doesn't bode well for our colder MJO phases

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The warmth is coming back 

I know you're serious, but you have to be enjoying yourself a little bit lol

Bluewave has shown how the models have continued to underestimate the raging PAC jet in the long term which is why they tend to show tantalizing individual storms at 7+ days out that quickly fizzle. Until a threat shows at 5-7 days there's really nothing to be excited about unfortunately.

40's is meh in winter, but 60+ when you can roll the windows down is definitely enjoyable. 70 is uplifting. But a blizzard....now that is inspirational

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Over

Yup, Canadian rains to North Pole.

GFS downgra…errr upgrade has really done wonders…

As expected GFS puts on a collar and admits it’s all other models’ B

The GFS is literally showing another planet's storm with how different it is from literally every other model

It ain't over yet- only once someone mentions the possibility of back end snows will the fat lady have sung her song

Man, these past few years it sure feels like whenever the models hone in on a no-snow solution, they're locked in (imby at least). hopefully the PNA goes positive (feels rare these days) and we can pull something out of it.

I remember 10 or so years ago, a bunch of under 48 hours changes that went from rain to MECS/HECS. Got spoiled I guess.

1 minute ago, mattinpa said:

Snow? I don’t have the Euro maps. Thanks for the updates.

Lots of mixed bag for a while near the coast then colder and snowier

Primary hanging on for dear life on EC

Euro:

CMC:

GFS:

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Why is the GFS even run? What’s the point? 

Have to show pretty colors it’s our tax dollars hard at work