romba

17 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

2-4" for southern 2/3 of Metro with this one...

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

define southern 2/3 boundaries please

Eye balled about 3-4 here in Eastern Bergen county before the changeover compacted it down.

Was beautiful to see it really coming down hard for a couple of hours last night, hardest I’ve seen in about 3 years, and wasn’t bad shoveling as it came off in nice chunks.

22 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I know NWS says 2-4" for around here. But I'm saying specifically for my location 4-6. I need 5.6" to reach 40" for the year so far . I feel confident. 

11 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

34.4" as we speak. Still have  snow/sleet pack from yesterday. Everything is white and frozen solid. Currently 24°

Jeez we’re trying to break 10 down here, what a flex

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Shut up dude

The low is also further south with the secondary .

careful, the way things are heading that guy might be the next mod  @Rjay

49 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Nowadays everyone has access to the models but I understand bc I always liked it to.  Don't really understand the dislike some people have for pbp.  

It was great. However, when someone would get excited while giving pbp for their area "CRUSHED", but someone else reading it was in the screwzone, they'd inevitably end up attacking the pbp person telling them they're clearly wrong etc. Inevitably there would be intense arguments over what qualifies NYC Metro and whether that person belongs in this forum. I believe that's why we started the LI thread, LI went through a period where they were getting crushed and Jersey was out to dry and there was tons of fighting about it with the Jersey folks questioning why there are even threads for those storms lol, good times!

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wow. This storm has started earlier then anticipated 

Well you know it always comes in earlier and leaves earlier than modeled

16 minutes ago, mob1 said:

18Z Euro is pretty much 0.75-1.5" areawide. 

Of liquid? Lol

21 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Are there AI models that get trained on multiple weather models to look for patterns, such as in the above examples ?   U would think that looking at the systematic bias of Euro, GFS, CMC, etc, in relation to each other, u could get better predictions.   

This is very interesting to me - AI incorporating real model biases during certain types of events in specific locations and then correcting for them. I've read that precip amounts are not improved with AI at this point but that the location of the greatest pressure drop, aka where the storm will have the greatest impacts, is.

I feel like blue wave has been lamenting the fast pac for a few years now, which has been the source of our misery, nina or nino doesn't seem to matter. Even in strong blocking patterns prior to the raging pac, we could still pull a strong phaser through.

Anybody got the upside down Korean?

34 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish...  models weren't nearly as good.  

 

Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement.  ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP.  Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress. 

Each update may not seem to be beneficial, but over the long run the trend is for more accuracy farther out from the event. It's rare these days to get surprised 2 days out but used to apparently be a somewhat frequent occurrence, even 15 years ago.

For the previous miss we spent 3 days waiting for the ‘inevitable’ northern shift SWFE always take to turn snow to rain for us. Of course it didn’t happen- not holding my breath for this one

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Where's doorman when you need him?

I got you

When the wind blows, we all know who goes 

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I will continue to look at the video I took of the light snowfall from Christmas Eve to make me happy.

Recon data will be ingested for 0z?

26 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Is that anything new?  I know nothing about the inner workings of these models, but generally, aren’t models often driven by the same statistical formulas which drive AI?  I always assumed that was the case.  Maybe it’s a marketing thing, calling it AI now?

Probably using the newer AIs to review the models to pick out tendencies or biases, and then compensating. I'd think that weather is still too complicated/not enough sampling yet for this to be too helpful, but who knows if in a few years this really has an effect.

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I wonder if you can make a wager on weather forecasts under "Sports Betting" ?

Holy moly you think ppl are pissed at the zoo keeper for poor/under measuring now? 

1 minute ago, mannynyc said:

It's hard not to laugh at this point

There’s a middle finger somewhere in that image

Just now, mikem81 said:

 Either way that’s an absurd ensemble spread this close 

Very true, that’s actually ridiculous 

1 minute ago, Blizzard Hunter said:

Correction from what though? Has any model shown the same solution consistently? 

Not really, but neither have we seen anything close to a hit with any consistency either. Just because there’s no consensus for exactly how it misses NYC proper, doesn’t mean there’s no consensus that it does miss.  Not the greatest logic I’ll admit, but there’s something to it.

4 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

The OP Euro is also on the eastern edge of its own ensemble

OP’s greater resolution hold more weight so close to start time, not sure how useful the ensembles are anymore.

12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

In other words, the snow would begin in about 36 hours but you are tossing all the global model runs other than the ones from the last 7 hours? I don't agree with that. The weather forecast models over history have notoriously shifted back and forth prior to storm events whether they verified or not. I think it's early and very exaggerated with such a close call to at this point say the NYC proper is "pretty much out of it".

WX/PT

Very fair, but at this juncture I feel that with each passing 6 hours the odds of a significant correction get smaller and smaller. It’s getting late early, to quote the great Yogi.

2 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

RGEM is showing a very different storm than the Euro and GFS. The low is significantly west. Just because it shows rain for the city doesn't mean it is the same storm.

Different path to a similar outcome. I know RGEM has a warm bias but it would take a miracle at this point to get significant snows to the city.

17 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

If you believe the global models yes

Plus RGEM and latest NAM 12k. So basically all the models. RAP and HRRR are still out of range so I wouldn’t put any credence in them, Euro has shifted over to the GFS, which is quite frankly embarrassing. UKIE is useless these days too.

NYC proper is pretty much out of it unless 1-3 inches of slop on street corners after an inch+ of rain is what you’re looking for.