romba

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Could anyone post a more detailed snow map for last GFS run?

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

GFS is still iffy and has it raining on long island. ICON has it snowing in southern Jersey on north, not buying it at all. Nam, Euro, Para and CMC say otherwise.  

Agree with you, though the UKIE I think is snow for the city as well

1 minute ago, Metasequoia said:

I want to believe the UKIE is right, but it has shown one pretty benchmark storm after another this Winter. I don't know how it gets such a high verification score.

Cuz it’s great maybe with predicting everything else but storm tracks lol? Like how many clouds will appear that day lol. I can’t figure it out either and I wonder the same thing, it’s been BM quite often this season only to cave as the event gets closer.

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Don't see how this wouldn't either hug the coast or cut inland. I suppose what we've got going for us is that it's a weak, progressive system. 

But I think it's gonna screw the coastal plain just like all storm tracks this season.

Sure looks to be headed that way again based on seasonal and model trends

26 minutes ago, yoda said:

UKMET is coastal rain storm for you and me... you get a lil snow before the 850 line moves north

850 line is way too detailed. ‘Storm in vicinity with some snow potential’ is really all we can say this far out which is what snow88 was saying I think.

CMC 222 hours is beautiful to look at. Clickbait model lol

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They just got them in the offseason, I meant the differences between last year and this year are amazing.

They're currently the best team in the metro area across all major sports.

 

Yankees???

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While it gets colder during the first week of March with the -EPO block, the Pacific Jet looks relentless. Need to see some improvement there if we want to avoid cold and dry.

 

PAC jet has been an absolute monster this winter. Against all logic though, I continue to hold out hope the pieces might still just fall into place.

Plenty of time to trend warmer guys 

2 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

This has bust written all over it...it looks like an inch of snow followed by an inch of sleet with heavy rain by 4-5pm. 

I’ve been following the models closely and yea the UKIE and EURO showed more recently but not that much, and the mesos have been insisting for 2 days now that we wouldn’t see more than a few inches in the metro area before the changeover to sleet or rain.

Sleet normally is a 5/10 but this year’s dry spell is like adding alcohol to the judgment- gets a 4 point boost lol

12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Just reading the threads and the model updates...this all looks very familiar. 

 

Like we did this same exact thing 2 weeks ago. 

 

Just saying...

I don’t recall this amount of model concensus 5 days out. 2 weeks ago there wasn’t concensus and whatever snow was shown on a model or two or three fell apart between day 7 and day 5 if I recall and the last straggler holding on to a snow storm caved around day 5 then. We’re definitely ahead of where we’ve been recently but still a ways to go.

12 z suite looks solid so far, big boys coming in soon.

Don’t know verification scores, but of all the models to show it though, I might trust this one the least. It’s a beautiful sight though.

Hey, at least we have something to tra.... ef that I want a blizzard!

No continuity from run to run....until it locks in on a rainy torch, then it won’t budge until it verifies even warmer. Story of the winter.

34 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I'm going to spring training next month

Lock it in, 10-20 incher incoming the first week 88 is out of town. Would be 20-30 but ‘sun angle’

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The euro has been horrid this winter-great pattern in the long range only to correct warmer/rainier as we get closer.  Weeklies too-just awful and not even worth looking at right now.

Story of the season. Which model hasn’t struggled?

Para needs a huge upgrade and we haven’t even switched over yet 

Bring on 70’s for a day or two, would be beautiful!

The models are finally being honest and showing zilch, nada. Only took them 3 months to get a clue past day 6.

13 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

The EPS looks good , it`s cold with some very deep members 

Can you, or someone else who is more knowledgeable than I answer where the cold comes from on the EPS members? The OP euro didn’t seem to have much cold available if I’m looking at it properly, thanks.

CMC hugs and rain, Euro south and out, GFS ignores all together. Pleeenty of time for models to continue disagreeing though. So far right on track for the season.

Uch -ao/+nao= suppression city again. Gonna need some strong help this year to get 6+ inches to the metro it seems

Would an even later phase with the PV result in a further south and east LP center resulting a shift in the wind direction to more snow/sleet and less rain?

3 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

No reason for people to be disappointed. Only a run or two showed this being a big hit for our area. Most people were never on board anyway. 

Yea a couple of GFS runs showed the goods but we mostly know better than biting with little support across the board and with the winter we’ve had so far.