romba

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check out the cmc

You might have been looking at last night's run

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Everything has trended badly for us since the beginning of December. Really right after that minor snow event at the beginning of the month, things started to go to very badly and they never came back again. I’m seeing some posts on social media about pattern flips “after mid-February”...I’ll believe it when I see it, I very seriously doubt some miracle end of February or March winter comeback 

If I see one more mention of an oncoming pattern-flip I'm gonna pattern-flip lol

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Saturday night and Sunday look less impressive with each model run as well

Every correction has led to less expected frozen this winter

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Eps mean for Saturday is 2-4 inches for the area. But I’ll believe that when I see it 

EPS is clearly concerned about view count and its SM presence, needs to keep the masses reeled in lol

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Another 80F Feb coming up?

And 40's and rain for April

Just now, PB-99 said:

Rain to Montreal 

 

Now we're talkin

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are already giving up on the 2nd half and March ? LOL

Lol you too were just about ready to throw in the towel after this past weekend's headfake. It can break even the most optimistic weenie. Resorting to a name change though to change our mojo though, that I approve of

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

what's causing it though? when was the last time it happened?

Raging Pacific jet stream, or so I've been told, and this happened last year as well until March when the pattern finally shifted

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down 

This needs to be pinned. Second winter in a row of this crap. Cue the 'Oh but the second half of March looks good for a pattern change' aka more cold rain and white rain for the metro in March and April who wants that.

Summer and swimsuits at this point, let's just get it over with!

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

They have been horrible after 5 days. Not sure what is going  on with the models this winter.

No consistency within each model. Blow it all up and start from scratch. Baby steps- lick your finger and hold it up to the wind and take it from there

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Rivera game was a great game

I was so happy when he  blew it.

I hope they over-salt your street 4 times in anticipation of this weekends blockbuster

7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

18z NAM another improvement. the surface depiction makes almost zero sense so I wouldn’t hang on to that.  

Never understood this- why would the model struggle translating what it depicts in the upper atmosphere to the surface?

7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

been Reading this forum for a very long time

ive definitely seen this movie before. It’s trending better and it’s still 3 days out. 

We tend to remember the anomalies that end up crushing, and forget the million others that 'trend' better only to still end up mood flakes versus completely OTS.

That said, I'm hanging on every model run holding out hope we hit the lottery this time

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

 

Looks good for upper mid west , not us.

 

If 93 changed to rain on the coast, what do you think that does displaced 500 miles west ? 

50's and t storms baby

The models have shown everything and anything at one point with nearly every storm this season and last, so saying 'the models showed a big hit previously and now show nothing, this is where we want to be!' is foolish.

What amazes me is that we are supposedly within the GFS wheelhouse but it still changes so often. At least the Euro has been pretty consistent. It sees what it sees, until some new data causes an adjustment and it changes. The GFS seems to change every 6 hours on a whim. Maybe if it were twice a day this wouldn't seem as big of an issue to me.

Just now, forkyfork said:

we've had several day 5 hits this year. you kinda don't want one

Good thing then that GFS didn't show 'a hit'

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

The NAVGEM and ICON, lol. 

Add JMA + DeepThunder and we're locked and loaded

16 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Wowzers. Can I see a clown map so I could at least dream?

Clown Map, as requested

4 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Yeah but we'll be the first ones to have real palm trees that don't die in the winter 

Lol but the drastic temp swings seem more in the direction we’re heading. Yes on average the temp is going up, but 70 one week in Jan and then 20 the next is not a healthy recipe for tropical wildlife I would think

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

I’m shocked that they didnt issue a watch for nyc, not sure what they are thinking as its borderline for 6. If models move to a rainier or drier solution then just issue the advisory.

Models have been trending drier recently it seems. Also look at the snow depth when available to help temper expectations as well.

12z RGEM

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

So I guess it's ICON/GFS/Para VS Euro/Nam/CMC now. My money is on the latter. 

UKIE?

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new mesoscale model runs are pushing tonight/tomorrow morning’s event further and further SE. Keep in mind there is a risk here of how this will affect Sunday night. Imagine Saturday blowing up into a major low offshore. Arctic drain from Quebec pours into it. Flattens the flow. Causes Canadian ULL suppression to push into the northeast, causing the Sunday night event to suppress/graze the area. This is now a risk

It’s turned Sunday from a cutter/hugger to the almost ideal track for now on most models. Hopefully the models have keyed in on tomorrow’s system properly at this point and we see no more SE shifts for Sunday’s system, but still a possibility of course  

2 minutes ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

We can get our 4-8 out of this if it’s stays all snow. This is fun

4-8+