romba

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

Doesn't it seem a tad early to be spiking the ball on this? I know everyone likes to call something and be correct about it, but it seems way too early to be right. Then again, 50/50 chance.

After the past few winters in the city he's allowed some healthy cynicism even if it is a tad early.

2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lmao 

Hey guys maybe some pros can help me out, my tidbits feed seems stuck from last winter. (I haven't used it since then).The dates have been updated but GFS is showing the same day 15 snowstorm. This has been happening for like 3 years now. I tried restarting in safe mode, didn't work. Ideas?

Pings in Brooklyn, lmao more frozen at 44 at the end of April then at 37 in February 

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Are you looking at the models ?

He's unfortunately right. It's inevitable this year. The 'threat' for next week is slowly whittling to white rain or plain rain as well on the GFS.

I'm assuming they've already laid 2 feet of salt in anticipation of next weekend's nu-GFS blizzard? Love tasting it on breezy days, almost as much as I love having unnecessary CT scans just for fun

Just now, MJO812 said:

It doubled down lol

Looks like tripled lmao

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

lol

It keeps going and going lol.....never change nu-GPS

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

That's snow right? What's that guys formula to get his 6-8? Take whatever it says and multiply by 4??? *facepalm*

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At present, medium-range and extended-range cold shots and snowstorms on the GFS are suspect when no other support is present.

Understatement of the century right there.

Thanks for the breakdown as always.

GFS cold bias looks to strike again. No other model's support this as far as I can tell.

CMC

EURO

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

 I know you`re looking at this one already. 

 

Don`t lie....

 

Had the Euro shown anything even close to resembling this, I'd be on it as well. But it did not, so not even looking twice (.....until 18z of course)

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

You obviously live a paved life  At this point in the year a heavy wet snow will do nothing other than make mud, lots of MUD. This ruins most outdoor activities other than walking on the sidewalk (nearest one of those to me is almost 2 miles away), it wipes out the chance to get the garden going early so we can eat fresh food that's good for us and it destroys my business and puts my income off until June. If you want to see snow go find it, stop hoping for an event that will do nothing more than disrupt the lives of the other couple of million people that live in the area outside of your little Brooklyn/NYC paved and concrete world.

Don't waste negative energy concerned about other ppl's hopes.

Personally I would want every single snowstorm to dump 2 feet, get the day off from work/school and play with the kids in it, and then 80's right before and after it. And my hoping for that obviously has 0 impact on whether it happens, so why worry about what ppl like Anthony and myself want? Needless divisiveness in a world already fractured with it.

Lastly, a couple of days of 80's and sunshine would solve that mud problem fairly quickly  

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Utterly ridiculous - FIX THE MODEL PLEASE !

There’s a new algorithm to convert gfs snow totals to real world numbers- take the total and divide by 0

Last night's Euro @ the tail end, take it fwiw

On 2/22/2020 at 8:00 AM, Hitman said:

This thread has been killing us all winter.  Need to switch up the mojo.  And fast.

Petition to change thread title to : Mid to Long Range (Non-Existant) Threats

Just now, Brian5671 said:

The only thing I'll say is that is within the window we have and sometimes we get a nice storm before a pattern flip to warmer. 

Give me a monster blizzard followed beautiful Spring weather, yes please.

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Just for laughs, the 6Z GFS this morning buries NWNJ and the HV with 30 inches of snow 12 days from now. Given the clairvoyance of the GFS long range this year start preparing now.

12Z has it too fwiw (very little). Not holding my breath.

19 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

One thing I noticed some of the guys on here. If it shows warm and rain the next 15 days, we should accept it cause it’s for sure going to happen but if it’s cold and dry or cold and snowy it ain’t happening it’s 15 days away. It’s kinda biased and annoying for anyone reading through!

 

Anyway it’s 36 and cold in midtown feels like February just doesn’t look like it

I hear what you're saying, but this season when the models say wet, it verifies. When they say snow, they don't. 

The models can really only be trusted as long as they don't forecast snow. @snowman19 has not only hacked the models, he's managed to hack the Pacific AND the Atlantic as well

We either have an early strong phase and get cutters to freakin Alaska, or we have kickers OTS. Sometimes when the Models are transitioning from one to the other we get what the GFS showed at 12 days away. But fear not, this will correct shortly!

We just can't thread the needle this year.

12 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Oh look another head fake potential coastal turned cutter. Let's discuss that instead lol

Warm and wet winter. Sounds like lots of Mosquitoes anticipated for this summer, wonderful.

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what was the reason given for this so-called "upgrade" and why cant they just roll back to the previous version?

 

That would be acknowledging a waste of tax dollars and time and therefore a loss of potential future funding. Instead they'll likely try to find some simple fix as to the reason and just patch it up, and then patch it up, and patch it up and eventually we'll get back to where we were two years ago with an even larger waste of time and money having been accrued.

I'm super cynical when it comes to government funded agencies and projects (and even more cynical of privately run ones lol)

They need to stop call them upgrades and call them updates or adjustments. Because some of these recent 'upgrades' (GFS, Euro too I've heard) are clearly downgrades in overall ability to predict weather outcomes.

Need at least 3 major models showing the same snowfall outcome within 4 days to even consider it happening. Years past, one of them could catch on early and lead the way and the others would soon follow suit.This winter the only way that happens is if the one outlier shows less cold/snow, then all others rush to get in line like a fat man at an all you can eat buffet. Every single model correction has been to less snow, no reason to start doubting it now.

TLDR:

Weather Models this winter:

More snow? GTFOH

LESS snow? NOW we're talkin!