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Chris78

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Everything posted by Chris78

  1. Chris78
    Great sign to see higher snow totals in the Ohio valley. The precip is hanging on longer as it moves east. Should help us with the WAA snow. Here's the 12z and 18z to compare.
  2. Chris78
    Looks a lot like the GFS lol
  3. Chris78
    At this point my hope is that the Waa can juice up some to get a wide spread 2 to 4 / 3 to 5 inch event. With good ratios I think it's definitely possible.
  4. Chris78
    Imho, considering what the longer range looked like just a week ago I am feeling real good about a 1-3/2-4 inch deal. Im hoping we can juice up the Waa snow a little. This is just an appetizer to the pattern we have setting up for the next 4 to 6 weeks.
  5. Chris78
    I would sign off on that immediately. 2 -6" across the area. (A little more to the south.)
  6. Chris78
    I agree not to take the nam seriously. I just hate seeing any model spit out the way we would totally fail in this situation.
  7. Chris78
    Good thing the NAM stinks at range lol.
  8. Chris78
    NAM is the worst case scenario. Basically skunked with snow north and south of us.
  9. Chris78
    We want to avoid what the nam is advertising. WAA snows into pa. We're left hoping the coastal gets us.
  10. Chris78
    1993 lol
  11. Chris78
    Both the cmc and GFS have the coastal low in the same place. The cmc has more precip to the NW.
  12. Chris78
    I think the GFS was better all around. It held the waa snow together a little better and then had the coastal low closer to the coast.
  13. Chris78
    How far north is the. 25" qpf line?
  14. Chris78
    Fv3 falling in line with everything else Now has. 25 in northern md to .50 south of DC. I haven't been too impressed so far with it. Seems to be out on an island at times.
  15. Chris78
    That's the 12z
  16. Chris78
    That's a nice bump from it's previous runs
  17. Chris78
    Yep. That's a 1 to 3 inch event during the day on Saturday. With potentially more to come.
  18. Chris78
    I like that the .25 line is well up, into pa. Gives us some breathing room for atleast a minor event.
  19. Chris78
    The OP GFS is more south compared to the mean on the GEFS. The FV3 would be on the northern side of the esembles.
  20. Chris78
    The weaker SS definitely doesn't help. I was looking more at the lobe that drops down into New England at the worst possible time. The better runs had at further north or further west .
  21. Chris78
    I know there's some doom and gloom this morning but the precip that slides just south of us is very impressive. As long as we Do Not lose ground to the south over the next few days I think we'll be ok. If we get out normal north bump over the final 36 hours it would be a real nice event. The 12/9 Event had the northern extent in southern va at one point and moved significantly north over the last 36 hours. @psuhoffman always talks about not losing to much ground to the south prior to the eventual north trend and I think this may be the case here.
  22. Chris78
    I think the biggest issue is the confluence pressing down from the North. All 6z model runs had it further south than there 0z runs. In my opinion That's the least accurate part of the equation this far out in time.
  23. Chris78
    Looks better for DC compared to 0z. Still mixes but less. It's a little colder. Has most areas in the .50+ for precip.
  24. Chris78
    Not sure what to think about that. I would call BS but the GFS has shown the same also..lol
  25. Chris78
    Is that better than 12z?
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