Chris78
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Everything posted by Chris78
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I agree that the GFS is most likely too cold for next weekend and has a known bias for that. I would also add that the GEFS has a better moisture surge when comparing to the 00z run and gets precip in much quicker. Also has a real nice CAD profile on the 2m temps. I atached the last 2 runs of 24 hr qpf and the 2m temp anomalies. With the GFS cold bias we need a real good buffer in temps this far out lol.
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Verbatim next Saturday is a legit winter storm. Several hours of snow to several hours of sleet to ZR. By 7pm Saturday temps go above freezing for Dca points south and east but about an inch of QPF has fallen. Temps still in the 20's north and west.
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06 GFS gets precip in atleast 6 hours earlier next weekend and has it snowing by sun up in Saturday. Cold temps too at the start.
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How does the individual GEFS member look for next weekend?
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Love the look on the GFS for next weekend. Been consistant now for showing winter weather for a few runs. The Fantasy snow 300+ hours out is fun to look at but a few more days and we can start taking next weekend more seriously.
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Weenie run of the season I'd say.
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Long range OP and all, but verbatim thats several inches of snow followed by several hours of icing then dry slot. Sign me up please.
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Gfs gets us back into winter weather as early as next weekend. I really like seeing all of canada very cold. Really nice CAD going on. Ninja'd by @C.A.P.E. I type to slow lol
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Love the look of the gfs day 10 - 15. All the caveats apply for long range OP but cold air around and an active southern branch. Looks like the last 10 or 12 days of January could be fun.
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Looks like areas of low pressure along a frontal boundary. Thats definitely a way to score in this awful pattern.
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Seems like models are beginning to converge on the northern and western parts of the sub. Seeing flakes. With as warm as its been and the system being weak and moisture starved its hard to imagine this being anymore than a coating to maybe an inch. But any snow is good snow and begggers cant be choosers lol.
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Cmc with 2 to 4" for North and West. To bad the CMC is a shiit model.
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Thats the way im looking at it. It might be the last flakes we see for a while lol.
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GFS coming in a little colder for Tuesday. Weak sauce but ill take what I can get. Lol
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Yep. Temps in the mid to to upper 30's Tuesday afternoon. Nice trend but still more work to do.
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Icon is close. Maybe we can luck into something. Would help for it to speed up by about 6 hours. Edit : ninja'd by @Weather Will
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The farther west you are the better shot you have Tuesday morning of seeing something. Alot of the individual members look like the op. Looks like west of I -81 has the best shot at an inch or 2. Lets hope we can push things further east a bit. Speeding it up 6 hours would make a difference also.
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The 00z cmc would be a nice spirit lifter. Would be nice to score next week during the short window of opportunity we have. Edit : GFS has the storm also but develops it to late for us.
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Definitey deflating. Last year the weeklies gave us great looks after great looks that never materalized. That gives me some hope that they may not be right past 2 to 3 weeks. Problem is this year its going with persistance. Looking more and more likely that most of January is toast. I reallly hope we can score a modest event in the short window we have next week.
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Yep OP run at range but it shows how we could get an overrunnning event with cold air in place and moisture heading towards us. Just have to hope the cold is deep enough so we can get some front end love prior to a switch over.
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I noticed that also. Thats probably our only hope for the next 2 or 3 weeks. Get some cold around and time something up before the cold moves out. At least its not as diffucult to time something up during prime climo. Looks rather bleak for the foreseeable future
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2019-20 snowfall contest
Chris78 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
BWI : 19.7 DCA: 14.9 IAD: 24.3 RIC : 11.1 Tie Breaker SBY : 12.8 MBY : 29.7 -
The nam runs from yesterday look pretty accurate lol.
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Picked up another inch over the past few hours. Storm total of 3.75 in Smithsburg.
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Wow! Over 5". Nice . I70 in washington,county was kind of the deviding line. I'm just under 3" and I've seem some 5 to 6" reports in the southern parts. I think the models really nailed the cut off of this storm really well.
