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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    HRRR is in its long range, but right now it's showing about that for our area. Let's hope we can squeeze out a couple inches.
  2. winterwx21
    It was good to see RGEM improve slightly. Our area is on the edge and this looks like what we've been thinking all along -- maybe a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces for our area. Maybe. Wouldn't be surprised if it's just a coating. RGEM has a bit of a warm bias, but as usual it outperformed the NAM big-time. We've seen that so many times in recent years.
  3. winterwx21
    We've known the coast has a good chance of seeing very little, but this Euro run is so bad that it has almost nothing for our area. Hopefully things will look a little better tomorrow, but it's hard to be optimistic right now with Euro and RGEM so warm. NAM is probably off its rocker like we've seen so many times.
  4. winterwx21
    RGEM pretty much nothing for our area. As usual a huge model battle still going on 48 hours before a storm. Hopefully we'll get a better idea tomorrow.
  5. winterwx21
    Very true lol. After how bad last winter was, a couple slushy inches would seem like a good event.
  6. winterwx21
    For our area slightly away from the coast, I'll be very happy if we can squeeze out 2 to 3 slushy inches on colder surfaces. We have a ways to go before we can be confident that even that is gonna happen though. At least the Euro got me a little more optimistic.
  7. winterwx21
    Euro gives us a little more hope. Big model runs coming tonight.
  8. winterwx21
    UKMET still too warm. Nothing at all for NYC. Maybe a slushy coating for my area, but a nice storm for NW New Jersey.
  9. winterwx21
    It'll be good to get some significant cold air in here for an extended period of time in mid January. Hopefully that will give the coast a better shot at a snowstorm. Looks encouraging.
  10. winterwx21
    I don't toss the GFS scenario out the window. I just said good luck, because I think it's only a slight chance of that happening. Back end snows very rarely work out for our area, and GFS isn't the model I want on my side. The other models don't save the coast with back end snow. I think the GFS will cave, but we'll hope and keep an eye on the situation. Right now I think it's more realistic to think that my area could get a slushy inch or two on the front end.
  11. winterwx21
    Good luck getting back end snow to work out for our area. CMC looks nothing like that and gives NYC no snow accumulation.
  12. winterwx21
    Very little snow even for our area in Middlesex County on the Euro now. Ugly 12z runs today. We still have a ways to go, but we've known that this is a real thread the needle situation. I'm not optimistic, but still hoping we get lucky.
  13. winterwx21
    It'll be interesting to see if Euro comes in warmer like some of the other 12z models did, but we still have a long way to go before we figure this out.
  14. winterwx21
    UKMET just came in quite a bit warmer, similar to the CMC. It now has the NYC area on the borderline instead of the big hit it showed last night.
  15. winterwx21
    Yeah a true thread the needle as we've been saying. Let's hope we get lucky. We certainly got lucky with many thread the needle storms during the great run of snowfall winters we had before the last few years. You never know.
  16. winterwx21
    Yep I think that would be a good early call for NYC if you had to make one, but it's very early to be making a call. A long way to go.
  17. winterwx21
    Yep but not much for NYC. It's quite a bit warmer than the 0z run.
  18. winterwx21
    CMC warmer. It has NYC right near the mixing line most of the storm.
  19. winterwx21
    Yeah and when we start looking at NAM tomorrow, we'll be talking about how NAM isn't accurate in the long range and we have to wait awhile. We have a long way to go before we get a good idea of what this storm is gonna be like for us.
  20. winterwx21
    We knew that the trough out west was gonna be a problem. That along with a borderline airmass in place to begin with meant this was a real thread the needle situation. Doesn't mean the NYC area can't get lucky, but it's only a slight chance. We'll still track it as long as we have a chance, but I'm not optimistic.
  21. winterwx21
    The Canadian has been good with winter storm threats the last few years. A much improved model.
  22. winterwx21
    Good to see the Euro trend colder and put us near edge here, but 6 days to go is a very long time considering the accuracy of models at this range. Who knows at this point, but at least it looks like our first legitimate threat. Anyway I say it's time to take a break from the models for a little while and enjoy the holiday weekend. I hope everyone has a great New Year's Eve and New Year's day. Another great food holiday. Football today, but I also love watching The Twilght Zone Marathon. That has become a big New Year's tradition. Happy New Year! Hopefully after the holiday this winter storm threat for next weekend will look better as we get to a more realistic range midweek.
  23. winterwx21
    Would be nothing during the day with Wednesday's temps, but maybe we can pull off a slushy coating since it's happening at night.
  24. winterwx21
    As WX/PT said in the December thread, it's a real thread the needle situation. Right now I would lean towards mostly rain, but at least we have a shot. Nice to have something to track.
  25. winterwx21
    A beautiful 55 degrees here right now, but it looks like a pretty long stretch of slightly above average temps (highs in the 40s) after today. Cool but probably not cold enough for snow near the coast. Looks like an annoying pattern. Since it's January and not a torch we can't rule out a thread the needle event, so of course we'll keep an eye on things. Not looking good though.
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