winterwx21

For me snow is the most important thing, so even if it's a warm winter it's an ok winter as long as we get average snowfall. Almost up to 20 inches for the winter here, so we're actually about normal snowfall right now. That's enough for me to bump it up to a C, but the grade will go back down a little if we don't get any more snow the rest of the winter. Remember we did have that period in January where we had the 2 light snow events in a week and snow stayed on the ground all week because it was so cold. So we had a very good week in January and now a great week in February. Not bad.

Amazing how much our winter changed with this one week. About 14 inches for me between the two storms so our area went from way below average snowfall to now about average for the season. Awesome week!

You would hope what is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model like HRRR would be able to pick up on something like this, but no. Late last night it was still insisting only a few inches.

Crazy. Can't believe I got 8 inches here when we were only expecting a few. This winter went from being terrible to not bad in the snowfall department for our area this week. Great storm!

Wow that's awesome! It looks like you might get 6 while I get 3 to 4 up here.

You have 3 inches already? Wow. I'm not up to an inch yet here. Coming down good but obviously a huge difference just a few miles to the south.

Beautiful scene out there. Trees got coated right away but now that it has fallen below freezing the road is coated. Wish I could stay up all night to watch this, but it's time for sleep. The way this band is setting up it appears that we're looking good for at least 3 to 4.

Really starting to pick up with that band now.

To me it appears that the nice band going across north-central NJ right now is heading right for the Island, and the latest HRRR is showing that happening.

Dusting on colder surfaces now. If the latest HRRR is right, our area is heading towards about 3 inches. I'll watch for another half hour and then go to bed. The one bad thing about overnight snow is it's during sleep. I'm not gonna stay up too long for an event that's a few inches, but it'll be nice to see the snow on the ground in the morning.

3km and HRRR continue to look good on the 18z runs as well. Looking like a decent chance that our area will get 4.

Perfect timing for accumulations too since it's happening during the overnight to early morning.

Glad to see this trended our way on the 12z models. 2 to 4 looks like a good call for most now. WWA for my area and as others have said, it'll likely be expanded north this afternoon.

Lost the RGEM but gained the GFS, lol. GFS went from the worst for our area this afternoon to now the best. Gets about 3 inches up to my area now. As usual it's a bumpy ride with the models in the few days before an event. Right now I'd say 1 to 3 is the best forecast, but we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Looks like it was both.

Yeah still enough time for a north bump. RGEM tonight looked lousy but HRRR and both NAMs looked ok, so it hasn't been a bad 0z suite so far. I'd love to see 3 to 4, but I'll be satisfied if we get 2.

After being very consistent the last couple days, RGEM just went well to the south. Hopefully it's a blip run. Everything else so far tonight at least gives us a couple inches.

Looks good. I want to see the 0z models before pulling the trigger on it, but hopefully we're looking at a nice 2 to 4 inch event.

That's what we needed to see to increase confidence a little bit. Still too early to know if we're gonna get a solid 2 to 3 inch event or just get brushed with a coating to inch type of event, but this Euro run at least makes me feel better that we're not seeing a significant south trend. Hopefully NAM will come back north this afternoon or tonight.

Yeah that sure is a stange error lol.

Nice catch, yeah that's pretty odd. At least it's not terribly far south.

And even moreso than being south, it just dries the system up as it moves east. Very little even for southern NJ.

Have to admit I'm starting to get a bad feeling even though I've always been a fan of the RGEM.

So basically right now we have no idea if we're gonna get 2-3 inches or almost nothing. Hopefully RGEM/Euro are right but can't have any confidence until the American models come back north. Hopefully we will see UKMET and Euro hold shortly. As usual a very difficult forecast a couple days before an event. It's never easy.

Bump north on the Euro as well. Looks similar to UKMET. Good way to end the night .... hopefully things will keep trending our way on Thursday.