winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts.
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I just saw the Euro. WOW, only 4 inches for our area. Yet the American models are close to 2 feet. Insane difference. I do think the Euro is way off with this solution, but it isn't a slam dunk yet that we're seeing a monster event.
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Yeah the tv mets can't act like we do just because the American models are showing insane amounts. They have to be more conservative 2 days before a storm, unless the models were in agreement on the monster amounts. I would probably go a little higher than 8 to 12 right now, but no way would I do something like forecasting 20 to 30. I would go with something like 10 to 16 right now.
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You really have to wonder if the American guidance is overdoing it since nothing else is that extreme. Obviously it's still going to be a tremendous storm with over a foot for most of the area.
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I'm glad to see it renamed the Allsnow blizzard of 2026 thread, in honor of Allsnow's triumphant return!
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Yeah this has been an enjoyable winter. 30 inches of snow for our area and an unusually long period of snowcover. Now if this storm pans out, it will be our best snowfall winter since 2014-2015 in addition to it being our coldest winter since that year. What a winter we're having.
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Yep this is looking really good.
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So great to see you back!! We were worried about you. Anyway the RGEM still makes me wonder if we're going to get the truly huge totals, but I would think at least something in between the RGEM and the NAM/GFS is likely. Very excited.
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That doesn't mean they'll trend all the way to the extreme GFS solution. I think the most likely scenario is the GFS backs off somewhat as these other models trends towards it to find a middle ground. A middle ground (6 to 12 inches) would still be a very nice solution.
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Yeah nowhere near the GFS. We still don't know if it's going to be a moderate snowstorm or a very big one, but I'm glad all the models agree on at least a moderate snowstorm now. Getting brushed by a light event looks very unlikely now.
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I'm sure Lee Goldberg will have higher amounts when he comes on later this afternoon.
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I'd be thrilled to get 5 inches from this. I'm glad the bad trends of the last couple days stopped and we're headed back in the right direction tonight. A light to moderate event looks likely.
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That's true, but getting a few inches would make me happy. Who knows, it could be our last snowfall of the season. I'd like our area to get a few inches above the 30 inch mark so we can say we finished solidly above normal for the season.
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At least it's looking much more likely that we'll see a 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 type of event, and we have a slight chance of seeing something much bigger. Very interested to see what the Euro looks like in an hour.
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The Euro does give us some snow Sunday but it's during the day with temps slightly above freezing. It would be a colder surfaces deal.
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Most of the area is average to slightly above average. As always Central Park is too low. I'm at 30 inches here -- that's a pretty good snowfall winter and it might not be over.
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At least we still have the possibility of getting a snowfall with a coastal storm miss if we can get an inverted trough.
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Lee Goldberg didn't sound optimistic about a big snowstorm at all today.
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I wouldn't worry about the Euro since it's all alone. However this is a delicate setup, so something could easily go wrong to cause no storm for our area. At least we have a chance of seeing something big, and it'll be interesting tracking it over the next few days.
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1 inch here.
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I've noticed that HRRR often does that on an off run after a major run. Looks good on the 18z run and then much different on the 19z run. It'll prob go back north on the next run.
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18z HRRR gives us close to 2 inches. I'd be very happy with that.
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I'm glad to see that the models stopped the trend of lowering amounts and beefed it back up slightly. Looks like a nice little 1 to 2 inch snowfall for this area tonight. At least it means we won't be shut out for February.
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But at least the 18z RGEM run was an improvement. It now gives us close to an inch after showing nothing for so long. RGEM jumping aboard for a light snow event gives more confidence that we're at least in for 1 to 2 inches. HRRR is about the only model showing nothing now. Hopefully that will jump aboard tonight.
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I think 1 to 3 is a good call for our area, but obviously still some uncertainty. I want to see the HRRR jump aboard by the 0z run tonight.
