Yanksfan

We just have to face the facts that in all likelihood this will be the 3rd consecutive winter where the PAC refuses to cooperate despite the overall pattern as a whole reshuffles each ensuing winter. This winter season would hurt the most with a -NAO and we still can’t cash in. Just mind boggling.

Storm total for me is 8”. It’s not the 12+ I was expecting, but a good storm nonetheless.

2 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

So all 12z Models for NE NJ/NYC: 

NAM:          7" - 11"
RGEM:        8" - 12"
UKIE:           9" - 13"
GFS:           11" - 16"
EURO:        12" -16"

Tell me again, why are people upset?!

Which seemed to be a slam dunk blizzard yesterday, everybody is freaking out with the sudden NW trends of the models today. I for one didn’t see that coming, but the Euro stopped my worries. Either the models will stand pat from here on out or what I think will happen is a correction back SE. 

18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Looks like a tick se

Can anyone confirm this???

Just now, weatherbear5 said:

Euro is gonna be interesting... a few conflicting signals... higher heights along the east coast, but the 50/50 low is in a better spot which should, in theory, help to better lock the high in place

It looks like it’s south and east to me. Hard to tell with the 24 hr panels.

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Almost every model hinting at 50-60mph gust nyc east 

I’d rather not have the wind aspect of the storm materialize. It cuts down on snow growth potential.

Just now, nycsnow said:

Better hope ukie is wrong 

Ukie is concerning to me cause the Euro tends to follow suit. I guess we’ll see in a bit.

This is 12z model madness at its finest. 3 model runs, 3 different solutions. Ok Euro what do you have to say?

The GFS as of late has been doing too much waffling for my liking, while the EURO has been holding steadfast with a hugger solution. I’m not buying the EURO either. My gut tells me in the end there will be a compromise between the two models. Something similar what the EPS depicts where the low exits off Delmarva/ Cape May followed by a motion ENE.

On 6/23/2020 at 1:38 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

You mean you're not team "Name Every Convective Swirl"?  

I am. Thus far we have 4 named storms on June 25th. We got a legit shot of rivaling the 2005 hyper season of 28 storms.

23 hours ago, raindancewx said:

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01APR2020     26.8 0.8     27.9 0.6     28.1 0.6     29.1 0.7
 08APR2020     26.5 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.2 0.6     29.4 1.0
 15APR2020     25.6 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.5 0.7     29.4 0.9
 22APR2020     25.4 0.2     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 29APR2020     25.1 0.1     27.7 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.4
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0

Lots of cooling this week. June may end up being the start of La Nina conditions officially - we'll see.

That doesn’t bode well for snow fanatics like myself where I reside if those conditions persist into next winter. That would make it three clunker years in a row.

20/12/4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Predicting 2 majors will strike the US mainland, one in the gulf near LA/AL the other will strike OBX then ride up the coast and threaten the mid Atlantic/ northeast.

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dont look at the satelitte if you are a big weather weenie. What a bomb just offshore. What a tease this winter has been.

Couldn't help it. I just had to look. If we had blocking it would have been a 2 footer throughout the area.

32 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The proof of their under measurements even back in the 1800’s, and as you say what is now an almost 200 year tradition in NYC is the pictures of Manhattan after the blizzard of 1888.

21 inches? Ridiculous, more like 36 which is what they measured in Brooklyn. MJO812 would have been in paradise. 

Numerous locations in Jersey reported 40+, While areas in NY state were 50+! By far the greatest snowstorm to hit our area in recorded history. I can only imagine this forum if an impending storm of that magnitude was approaching. The server would crash for sure.

Oh well looks like the end of another crap fest of a winter. Onto tracking the coronavirus.

7 minutes ago, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said:

Unfortunately this winter...it has found every way not to snow ....only silver lining is next winter is almost guaranteed to be better than this one so something  to look forward to...

I wouldn't be so sure of that. I thought I read that we could be facing a strong Nina next winter. That's not conducive for snow.

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The evolution for late Feb to start March looks similar to late Oct/early November.

This would fit well with raindancewx's forecast actually. If this idea proves correct then March could turn out a lot colder/stormier than many are expecting. 

It could be a false flag but the idea of a cold end of Feb/early March is looking more likely as supported by ensembles.

The only way to save this winter would be a March Blizzard 2001 reverse redux where the storm hits us with all its fury. 

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's time to give it a rest and better luck next year (as far as snow is concerned).

Next year by default can't get any worse, which is the only good news to come from this winter. 

although unlikely, it can be worse next winter. We could be shutout.

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Thank you Captain obvious. What a horrific pattern. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Need this colder. Gfs was flatter than 6z.

Good track. Should of been a snowier result. GFS is unreliable with thermals this far out.

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

When the euro is on our side , it busts but when it's not on our side it doesnt bust.

What an area we live in.

I need to sell the house and move to Maine.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

If only there was blocking with this very active pattern. We would have been crushed.

Yep. So much for the the solar minimum giving us blocking this winter. No where to be found. Still keeping hopes alive we get a rogue snowstorm before spring in this god awful pattern. 

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowy march incoming 

The only thing that would make up for this snowless winter is a HECS. Give me a blizzard of 1888 redux. Go big or go home.

6 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The wave is garbage on the Euro 

 

Unbelievable. You just can't make this stuff up. If I had to guess, Central Park will probably end up top 5 in snowless winters. What a train wreck.

55 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Fail

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-2020-us-winter-forecast/592125

 

They said Boston and NYC were going to have above average snowfall. 

Alot of people thought the same.

That's back to back epic fail winter snowfall forecasts by many mets. I don't recall that ever happening before.