Yanksfan

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with another storm (or 2) most areas could get to above normal seasonal snowfall.   In my area at 24.4 at BDR which is about 4 inches short of seasonal ave.

It’s going to be a challenge for me to attain normal snowfall average which is 30”. I currently have 17”.

Other then a couple of moderate events it’s been an awful winter. Im going to need a MECS in March just to get to normal annual snowfall but I’m  not holding my breath on it. Already looking forward to a better setup next winter with an El Niño forcasted.

ICON brings the V-day  storm up the coast.

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I guess we can put that February torch talk to bed.

8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Any chance the models are underestimating the effect of the SSTs? I can't logically offer anything on why they would, but they are anomalously high this year. Lots of energy. 

I’m surprised nobody is mentioning about this possibility. It could lead to faster pressure falls/earlier ULL closing. The meso models would pick up on this as we get closer to the event if it were to occur. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

245

Great. Now it’s NAM vs the world.

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and gfs are night and day at h5

Euro isn't holding back anything 

Big red flag. Euro has a tendency to hold back energy. Since the Euro doesn’t show it there’s good reason to discard the GFS run.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Forecasted 2-3 feet here

5 inches

Ugh. Every time that storm is mentioned I shudder. All the models were locked and loaded 48 hours before the event and then one by one they pull the rug out from me. The mother of all busts.

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Moving too fast for a HECS

If the ULL closes up to the south of us it will be.

24 minutes ago, Doorman said:

euro hi res 12Z

storm signal with capture

one more take

 

 

I wonder if the Euro is focusing on the wrong wave. I guess we’ll see in future runs.

32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are big questions with next weekend that will limit what happens. The good is that the pattern change on the PAC side will be underway, we usually see storms at the end of established patterns. The other good is the cold that will be in place although it will be starting to relax some at that point but still cold. The issues….still fast flow, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low. The big question is the +PNA ridge….is the GFS actually correct 7 days out with its position and strength? That will greatly affect the downstream trough in the east. If the trough is positively tilted we have issues. If the GFS is wrong about the ridge in the west and the trough doesn’t go negative at the right time it all falls apart like the Euro. Is the GFS handling the northern and southern stream waves correctly? We have a lot to watch over the next week and a lot can change, people need to realize that 

Snowman even though we have different biases with cold/snow vs warm/sunny, I couldn’t agree more with your statement. This winter from my point of view has been incredibly frustrating with progressive patterns, wave spacing and what not. Is the potential there for a whopper snowstorm? Of course there is. With this being a week away it could also just as easily with a ridge break down end up as a fish storm or not even develop altogether. I refuse to get pulled in to another “potential blockbuster storm” only to get the rug get pulled out from me. If this threat still holds up and we’re 72 hours from the event then I’ll bite. One last thing,  I’m very sorry for your recent loss.

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm becoming a yankee fan if that happens 

…and I’ll be a Mets fan.

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Feet of snow for Georgia and rain here

Big change of 0z

God help us if that were to happen. At that point let the February torch commence and end this miserable winter.

CMC has the day 9 threat albeit offshore.

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Going on absolutely nothing other than recent past experience, this will not pan out.

Of course, I hope I’m wrong, but it just has that feel of meh, it’s not gonna happen.

That’s my peer-reviewed scientific analysis.


.

Your probably right. I can dream can’t I?

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs has a signal

Models have the tendency to sniff out the big ones. I believe it was the Euro that had the superstorm of March ‘93 ten days out. It never wavered.

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LoL at the big snowstorm at the end of the month on the gfs

958 mb low. Good Lord.

Overall it’s another bust. It’s been the theme thus far this winter.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 

I approve this post. We need to laugh to keep from crying.

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What an absolute fail this month despite a seemingly favorable pattern.

We could see a BN temperature month with not a lot of snow to show for it.

We still have one timetable to watch near months end for a storm and it looks like the tellies would be all in our favor. Now if that storm sh*ts the bed, we might as well just shut it down. With the pattern we’re in with nothing to show for it would be a failure in epic proportions.

Just now, Joe4alb said:

Correct, however the NAM taking a big step in the Euro direction is a good sign. If the ICON follows suite, I will be much more confident that this trend is really happening. 

RGEM took a big step towards the Euro.

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Anyone have the 6z EURO

It only goes out to 90 but it looks even better then at 00Z. Shortwave is a bit further north which would of taken the heaviest snows further along up the coast.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why did Allsnow put a sad face on this post lol

Cause we’re gonna freeze our asses off!

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very true but we need to capitalize now with this cold pattern. 

After this storm the potential really ramps  up. If we don’t see a 12+ event by months end then it’s a massive failure.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we dont get a double digit snowstorm in this pattern it will be a huge failure

 

Yep. That’s a KU look.