Yanksfan

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

12Z Euro shows nada for 12/30 or 1/1, but is showing a general 4-8" snowfall on 1/3, about 8 days away.  Would be nice to see anything close to that verify, although no other models support that right now (at least not the 2 GFS's or the CMC).  

It could be that we're only looking at one event during the first week of January. The Euro might simply be keying on the 1/3 low while the GFS is trying to hone in on New Years Eve.

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They want to blame LASIK but I don’t know.  Having researched it heavily myself years back and ultimately opting not to do it the vast majority of the suicides tend to occur years later when it’s apparent there is no hope the side effects will fade.  This was well inside the 6 months recovery time.    It sucks that it seems nobody around her knew something was wrong.  Similar to my good friend who recently committed suicide.  Only sign was one of those realizations after it happens.  He was texting me way more than usual in the weeks proceeding it but I never thought much of it at the time 

My wife has been fighting depression for years. Medication and therapy has helped some. Still there are good and bad days. So sorry for your loss.

51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wasted cold for sure. 

Historic storm today for parts of VA/NC.

Let them have it. They deserve it. Our time will come soon enough. When all is said and done the majority of the area will be well above snowfall for the season. Patience.

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps is north of the euro

This isn't over at all. Let's hope for a north trend starting today.

12 out of 50 members now have big hits in SNE. 

There's a lot of chatter in the NE thread about this storm ultimately coming further north due to the fact of models underestimating the northern stream with a weak ElNino being present.

GFS Para was on its way to a major hit until it reached the coast of Virginia and the run gets wonky.  The center "jumps" offshore. Looks to me like it may be the low chasing convection. Despite that, it was a big improvement from the 0Z run. 

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GFS takes Newman's early idea of suppression and runs with it. Reminiscent of one of the misses from last season where all models were on board for a hit here then it went to Cuba lol.

GFS is clueless. Its run to run changes have been downright comical. Thank god this mess of a model will be taken out to pasture next month. I'm more inclined to follow the GFS Para. Only problem is its always painfully slow to come out on tidbits. Hopefully this issue will be fixed when it officially takes over.

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We want the gfs to be south of us right now

I agree. There are many times where these big ticket events end up further north.  6z GFS was close to a big hit for us. Southern Jersey on southward gets dumped while we still get some decent snows up here. 

After a long day I'm finally getting to unwind on my recliner. What's normally a 20 minute commute from my job took nearly 3 hours. I measured 6.5'' when I got home. Great storm.

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Few inches for the city

This is going to come down to how much front end thump we get.

Euro+Ukie combo is tough to beat especially this close to an event. We'll see if the Meso models tick colder at 18Z.

19 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Great, well-researched winter outlook as per usual, @griteater! Good luck with verification. I agree with some of your reasoning/conclusions and disagree with others; you'll see where those differences lie soon.

Any thoughts regarding precipitation and snowfall departures? My only minor nit-pick is I prefer using the 1950-2010 as a base comparison period; I think the 1980-2010 base tends to overestimate cool anomalies somewhat. But very good job on your outlook last winter.

Good to hear from you Tom! Many members are eagerly awaiting your thoughts of this upcoming winter.

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think that January h5 looks bad but the ridge in Canada extends a bit further east then I like and that positive nao probably will mean a warm up during any relaxation. I could see a period where given that nao and Canadian ridge configuration that warm air floods across the Conus. But I definitely don't take it as a shutout month. It's a better look then we have had most of the time lately. But compared to the epic looking months around it on this run it's the runt. But I don't mind the possibility of a thaw period. Every analog says it's coming. And it would explain the overall washed out average temps for the winter. I don't have individual month temps but I'd bet money dec and feb are cold and January warm. That doesn't mean the whole month is toast but if 2 weeks are a torch and 2 weeks are near or slightly below normal but we get a snow event in there...and dec and feb are rocking...who cares. But that would explain how temps end up near normal with that h5 mean. I'm just speculating. 

Even in the most severe winters there are going to be relaxation/reload periods. If not looking at the calendar per say, winter runs from Dec. 1st thru April 1st. That's a long period of time for sustained cold. No one should expect a wire to wire winter cause you're really reaching for the moon if you do.

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I said...how can he go big like that when we don't know for sure if it'll even reach mod Niño status? (Unless he thinks that it will?)

Check out the daily ENSO numbers. There's a very good chance this Nino will achieve moderate status. That being said, DT going with a 200% call is bold. He normally likes to hedge a bit. With him being so gungho this time around gets my attention.

February we will have a crippling triple phased blizzard when a slow moving miller A coastal gets caught up by the polar vortex. Folks down in DC will see upwards of 2 feet. Further north towards Philly will have 2-3 foot  amounts. Northern half of NJ-NYC metro 3 feet plus. SNE upwards of 4 feet. 

14 minutes ago, tim said:

...JB

predicting a cold/stormy winter for east coast.

could be "spectacularly" cold..rivaling 13-14 winter.

pretty bold statements even for him!

So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish.

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh how I pray  

With my luck it’ll be another 09-10 with suppression depression in NE and monster after monster down there. If so, I’ll pay double the going rate for your place out near McHenry.

Perhaps it'll be a year where they come right up the coastline and DC to Boston gets crushed. Just like the good ol' days.

11 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

This is also going to help fill in that long evening model hole between the 18z GFS/RGEM at 4:30/5:00 and 00z NAM at 9:30/10:00 (I'm ignoring the 21z SREFs in that because LOL).

Anyone have a start date?

October 30th.

Weak El Nino Modoki...check. Warm Atlantic SST...check. Solar minimum...check. End result...95-96 redux. Go big or go home. 

8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20.   He was 83.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

When I first got into this weather hobby back in the day as a kid growing up, John Coleman was one of my favorite weathermen on TV. He was truly one of the greats. R.I.P. John.

57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I haven't watched a TV weather forecast in years....

I like to watch Lee Goldberg. To me he's the best weatherman on TV. When there's an impending storm, I'll also check out Nick Gregory. That's it. I won't even put on the weather channel anymore.

Wow. What a gut wrenching loss by the Yankees. One of the worst post season losses I've ever seen.

I'll never forget Al Roker's snowmap a couple of days before the "so called" event. He had the eastern half of jersey along with NYC metro and Long Island at 2-3 feet. Everywhere west of Morristown was 3-4 feet! I ended up with a few paltry inches. What a bust of a storm! Still irks me to this day.