Yanksfan

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

shows you how bad the models can be at times even with a short lead time....

Models probably underestimated the strength of the block. If only this were January.

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

@bluewave 

 

Interestinging development. If we put all other weather drivers aside like the NAO and PNA, what ENSO state is more favorable for a productive winter in our area Modoki or Neutral? Reason being I often hear Mets and amateurs alike vouch for each if you want a cold/stormy pattern.

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The IOD and SOI are currently in a mode that we usually see with a more robust El Niño pattern. So maybe we see the SST’s become more Niño-like back toward Niño 3.4 and 4. You can see the current split with cold near South America and warm west. Right now the 500 mb pattern is a blend of Niño and Niña features. 

 

It wouldn't shock me if the upcoming Enso model forecasts show a weak west based Nino. Whatever's the case as usual our winter will hinge on the strength and position of the western ridge and if the elusive Greenland block shows up.

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

unless rounding from celsius is inflating the number ewr is up to 95. lol

Here I am looking for any posted tidbits for the upcoming winter and its 95 freaking degrees in Newark. Unreal.

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Just got engaged today =)

Congrats to you and your future wife. It would be fitting if a blizzard occurs on your wedding day.

36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in.

Potential Gloria redux in the making. Long way to go though.

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

N Pacific pattern doesn't match subsurface data again.. this first happened in March or May 2018. 

That's why last winter predictions busted so badly and is going to cause forecasting very challenging this winter. 

On 5/21/2019 at 11:34 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

All of which wouldn’t have been named pre satellite era. Regardless it’s an interesting trend when you include the early satellite era. Increasing SS temps should continue the earlier starts to the season. Eventually we could see seasons similar to the Wpac which essentially run year round.

I agree. With the Changing climate, pre June 1st named storms could very well become the norm. I can envision seeing the NHC start the season on May1st in the not so distant future.

Blizzard of 96 is #1 in my book. Snowed for 28 straight hours. Ended up with 30 inches in my home town of Bloomfield, N.J. at the time. Absolute heaven. The only storm that comes close is Boxing Day.

14 minutes ago, tim said:

...JB

predicting a cold/stormy winter for east coast.

could be "spectacularly" cold..rivaling 13-14 winter.

pretty bold statements even for him!

So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish.

October 30th.

8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20.   He was 83.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

When I first got into this weather hobby back in the day as a kid growing up, John Coleman was one of my favorite weathermen on TV. He was truly one of the greats. R.I.P. John.

57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I haven't watched a TV weather forecast in years....

I like to watch Lee Goldberg. To me he's the best weatherman on TV. When there's an impending storm, I'll also check out Nick Gregory. That's it. I won't even put on the weather channel anymore.

Wow. What a gut wrenching loss by the Yankees. One of the worst post season losses I've ever seen.

I'll never forget Al Roker's snowmap a couple of days before the "so called" event. He had the eastern half of jersey along with NYC metro and Long Island at 2-3 feet. Everywhere west of Morristown was 3-4 feet! I ended up with a few paltry inches. What a bust of a storm! Still irks me to this day.