Yanksfan

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Euro and CFS MJO forecast look great with nice amplitude into 8 and then 1.

Earthlight and others seem gungho on this upcoming pattern. 

This is the best looking pattern all winter with the strong epo ridge.

 

If we don't get a least an advisory snow event out of this pattern, I give up.

I thought February was supposed to be rockin'? Even the conservative forecasters predicted it. This winter makes me sick.

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

If the models are accurate, Boston will be under 3” of snow on February 14

I looked into the Boston annual snowfall archives that goes back into 1920. If Boston receives no more snow this season, it would be an all time record low by far.

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Pattern gets better by the 10th on the gefs. We need the epo to work out because the pna looks terrible.

As the days go by the frustration mounts. We just can't catch a break this winter. When one connector improves, another one goes to crap. All I ask for is just one MECS event then call it a winter.

On another note, this is a message to all the so called climate change theorists... just because we're experiencing  a dead ratter winter, does not mean this is the new norm from here on out. I have a family member who believes in this assumption.  We have been incredibly fortunate coming off a string of above normal winters. We were due for a bad one at some point. 

OK I've seen enough. Time to throw in the towel for any hopes of a cold/snowy pattern settling in. The atmosphere just won't allow it this year. You can thank the MJO and lack of blocking for that. I'm already looking forward to next winter where we can reshuffle the deck and hope for a better hand. Having said all that I still expect a rogue winter storm to occur at some point this winter.

26 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

This is going to be another week of torture. Going to have to thread the needle, if I had to venture a guess you'd want to be NW of Middletown and west Milford to cash in again but we have an eternity to trend favorably. Cold air will be hard to come by at that point even though we're currently sitting in the single digits or colder everywhere. I'd sign up for the paste bomb that the 0z Euro was but it's very borderline.

God help us all if we get another rainstorm in late January from a MIller A that takes a BM track no less. That would be the nail in the coffin for me.

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Can't believe the GFS of all models may win with this storm 

It would just be another knee kick to the groin to this pathetic winter which had so much promise. Unbelievable.

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

If we could get the transfer earlier we'd be in business. That has immense potential.

Maybe the 84 hr NAM is onto something. Would be a game changer.

5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Yes, but it only goes out to 90 hours.

Here are the last 3 runs of the Euro including 18z. Its been trending towards a less amped solution which would argue for a more favorable track for snow lovers in future runs.

45 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

The EPS is showing less interaction between the system and the PV. Positive trends at 12z even if the surface still looks bad for us.

Can someone tell me why there is a delay in the surface reflection when there are changes in the upper levels?

Euro had some improvements in the upper levels. More separation between low and vortex. Baby steps.

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even the front end snow dump would end up more than the 18Z GFS shows verbatim if you got that exact track.  We see this with any system where we go snow to rain that it’s not usually til 84-96 that we start seeing the magnitude of the snow portion.  The November storm was the same thing 

I agree the surface reflection of the GFS and its cousin Para doesn't look right. It should show more front end snow with that low track. My guess is both models are struggling with the thermals.

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Para gfs has low temps below 0 for the NYC area next monday.

It also loses the cutter solution with the weekend storm. 

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gonna be a long week

Yep only 25 more model runs to go. Who the heck needs sleep.

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

A beautiful "2 LE beast. I'll gladly take 5" of sleet topped off by 4" of dust.

Hell no! Its like shoveling concrete. Give me dry powder.

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Big coastal signal on the gefs for next wekeend. Signal on every run.

Which makes me nervous. Cutter and suppression come to mind. I would feel a lot more confident if this event was inside 5 days. 

19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have been laying low since I have a broken collar bone from ice boarding but I think we are solid for a light snow event. There is nothing screaming big storm but we have seen allot more moisture in past storms then modeled. I like a general 2-3” across the area. Anything is better then nothing at this point. 

Sorry to hear that. Get well soon.

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is really squashed

It's funny how every threat so far since November has been rain or squashed.

We can't get lucky at all

Meh, could just be an off run. I'll be concerned if it shows the same at 12z. Meanwhile Euro continues to show incremental improvements each run despite being shredded out. Bottomline no one should keep their guard down with this threat.

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs and para Gfs are stil showing a storm signal for this weekend.

Not getting excited at the moment. We need to get the other models on board.

Blizzard of 96 is #1 in my book. Snowed for 28 straight hours. Ended up with 30 inches in my home town of Bloomfield, N.J. at the time. Absolute heaven. The only storm that comes close is Boxing Day.

SOI is tanking. Today's value is down to -20.30! I expect to see the MJO respond favorably in the coming days.

Today's SOI has dropped to -9.42.

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You’re 100% right. If that happens we are in real big trouble and my call for mid January busts and busts badly

If that happens there would be some big time weenie cliff diving going on including yours truly.