Yanksfan

18/9/4

I know it’s way early in the game for a legit call on next winter, but thus far I’m not liking all this negativity. I’m not looking for a blockbuster season; just give me a normal winter at this point.

51 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

For the outer banks I could see a scenario where a cat 5 is possible, but it would take a ridiculously perfect set up. Something with a recurrence rate of 1000 years or something like that, based on current sea surface temps. You would need a high end 185mph storm in a zero shear environment with the core following the Gulf Stream, that gets tugged due north with minimal weakening down to 160mph while entering the narrow shelf waters in that area. There is a reason the OBX has had a ton of cat 1/2s and only a few majors (all 3s).

The 1950s landfall pattern was kind of the hurricane version of the 2000s 40/70 benchmark snow storm track… Right place right time.

38 was kinda like the OBX scenario I described above, everything came together perfectly. I would love more information on the previous recorded majors in the north east. But we just don’t have the data for how the great colonial hurricane evolved, just that it produced major level damage. The craziest event was in the 1300s based on sediment cores, that one could have been a Tsunami!

With this new climate we’re entering I wonder what a worst case scenario up here would be for a TC. High end cat 3 perhaps?

Another disappointing winter coming to a close. That makes the 4th consecutive winter with below normal snowfall for the season for me  and 6 out of 7. This decade rivals the 1980’s snow drought. Is there hope for next year? Perhaps. The early call is for a weak/moderate modoki which would be great for snow potential for the eastern US although I’m keeping my enthusiasm in check until I see the raging Pacific Jet shows signs of slowing down.

6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

250 million years in the future, if humans are still around, they probably would have found ways to control the weather, keep CO2 levels balanced to avoid global warming, or ice ages. Will have gone off in to space to explore other solar systems, possibly even other galaxies via their equivalent of warp drive.

Earth’s resources will be long spent by then. Because of this humans will either be extinct or already moved on and spread out to other habitable worlds.

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

For once I hope you’re right. This winter has been down right torture on my soul.

10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

wow 60 pages now and this storm thread is totally out of control

It’s an epic failure and meltdown on so many levels.

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's kinda silly. that attitude is borne out of frustration rather than anything scientific

Welp I guess you can put me in the pessimistic group. Last Friday when everyone was talking up this so called historic storm and models were spewing out ridiculous clown maps, in the back of my mind my thought process was “well I’m hoping this happens but more likely than not the other shoe will drop.” 

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And gefs. Believe in yourself. 

I think your grasping at straws Anthony but let’s see what Euro has to say in a bit.

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Full on NAM cave job. And the RGEM and ICON follow with zip zero now too. This was an absolutely horrifying bad, bad, bad performance from the NAM, ICON, CMC/GEPS, RGEM, UKMET and the EURO/EPS. The GFS/GEFS, GFS-GraphCast and EURO-AIFS schooled them. Completely embarrassing 

EURO has never been the same model since being upgraded. Back in the day it would lock into an event 5 days out and never waver.

46 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Who are you and why are you using my name?

Sorry I am not an imposter or trying to offend you but when you changed your display name for whatever reason, I assumed the name would be available once again. Being a diehard Yankees fan all my life, and trying to get out of this damn snow drought for the past 3 years that we’ve been in I figured that could change our luck. All I succeeded in doing was making our big storm this week go OTS and piss you off.

 Nothing beats the March 2001 calamity, but I have to admit this one is going to sting for a while.

Waving the white flag for this storm and for this winter. Heck I’m used to the losing out coming from a Jets fan perspective.

The Euro upper levels were an improvement. Better heights out west, slower kicker, and a more consolidated ULL. Yet the storm shifts east??? It just refuses to snow around these parts.

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have a weird feeling that the models will bring the storm back. Not sure to what extent. We aren't getting out of MJO 8 without a snowstorm. 

I have the same feeling too but to what extent? With that damn kicker out west and the confluence up north it would take some big time positive trends to get back to the KU that we want. Time is still on our side so who knows. Just give me a general 3-6 storm and I’ll count my losses. A total miss would be a knee kick to the groin.

The pacific jet does us in again. What was a historic setup; a retrograding western -NAO, the blocking with the banana high, the 50/50 low and the PV lobe phase with an impressive southern stream all gone in a little over 24 hours. I was intrigued with the potential but never fully bought into it. Only if the big storm was there on Monday I would have jumped in. The elusive KU has slipped through our fingers. Is it too much to ask for a run of the mill 3-6 inch event? Could very well be. In closing these  last few winter seasons  have been frustrating to say the least. Now there’s talk in the NE forum next winter about a modoki El Niño which happens to be the most conducive to snow in the eastern US. Not if the PAC jet has anything to say about it. Sorry for the rant guys. Carry on.

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Lots of spread but obviously not a trend we want to continue 

Just chalk it up as a bad run. We move on, regroup and look forward to 18z.

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'll revise, I think they'll be 12:1 based on past storms like this even with the high winds.  Temperatures will be in the 20s and the snow will be dry and powdery.

 

A blizzard is great I guess with all the high winds and drifting, but not great for snow growth. The high winds breaks down the dendrites. You want calmer winds for maximum snow accumulation potential.

48 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Big deformation zone inland to the north and west with this system.

Would have loved to see the run play itself out to see if the low continued up the coastline or made a sharp turn east like at 12z.

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is gorgeous. ULL is even more amped than 00z

That is how you draw it up. Textbook.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is great 

I assume there will be some epic solutions when the indies come out.

5 minutes ago, SnowLover2025 said:

Looks like GFS 12z is a miss for Thursday

I’m not surprised. This next week is really going to test our patience.

I don’t care how ominous the 500mb maps look. We need the PAC jet to relax some or our great potential next week will be flushed down the toilet like all of the others. That damn anomaly has been wreaking havoc on us for several years now.

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

AI with a big jump north at 18z 

Snow map please.

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I wouldn’t give up on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pattern favors a north trend imo 

Agreed. If there’s one model I trust the most it would be the EURO AI. It’s been spot on this winter. It has the Wednesday storm gradually trending north. I don’t have access to snow maps but it looks like it has a few inches in our area with more down in central and southern Jersey.