Yanksfan

I have a hard time believing a shortwave that digs into Atlanta GA will cut. The farthest west this goes would be over NYC although Im thinking more in line with an inside the BM track. 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro has significant snow interior NYC

Euro goes west and snowfall clown map improves. Verbatim I get 6” this run. Go figure.

Euro caves to the Gfs. Shame. What a waste of cold air.

GFS with a wonky track. Primary looked like it was making a beeline towards the coast on a due east trajectory, when it suddenly cut due north into Pennsylvania.

HR 90: high hanging back more along with stronger confluence.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Other models are also trending west . 

UKIE went east and the EURO OP ticked east. Let’s wait till the ocean storm gets out of the way first before throwing in any towels.

15 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Eps pretty far east. Anything from suppressed to inland runners on the table.

I think it’s safe to say an OTS track is off the table. The ensembles  are east of the OP cause it’s showing stronger confluence hence the offshore track. My gut tells me it goes to the BM or just inside.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep op is an outlier 

1 hour ago, mikem81 said:

I see maybe 2 rain storms on this map

Stay right there…

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Mark my word

 

This will be a coastal crusher 

I agree. I’m not concerned at all since it’s still 5 days away. Now if we’re still seeing inland tracks on Friday I will be on edge.

12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The larger scale picture does not fit the scenario of a strong push of mild air inland, my hunch is that in the explosive cyclogenesis phase which appears likely near the Delmarva, the eventual shape of this storm will be double-centered with a triple point near the Texas Tower moving northeast to Nantucket. It could allow a blizzard to develop in many areas and confine the mixing zone to eastern LI and perhaps right along the coast to JFK, and down the Jersey coast to ACY then into the Delmarva. Could be a very large snowfall gradient across the NYC metro as a result. Potential for 24-30 inch snowfalls with this, most likely location would be n NJ, lower Hudson valley, w CT into central MA. (and further south in parts of e PA, w MD, n VA). 

Like my Italian grandfather used to say, “Madone”.

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah usually a snowless December during a La Nina means a terrible winter ahead, but it's not a typical La Nina pattern this year. Nice looking pattern ahead.

With increasing warming occurring by the dateline that’s progressively pushing eastward, La Niña is on its way to a quicker demise than earlier thought.  Pattern is behaving more like an El Niño. 

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Day 5 on the Euro is sad. Such a potent looking wave but it will be a struggle to get it close enough to us with that suppressive Atlantic height field.

I know that things can change, but we probably need to face reality and lay low for a week until the pattern matures some and then we can come back and track more legit threats.

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I know it's crazy but I ain't giving up on the ocean storm for Friday.

The trends on the GEFS are notable. I'm giving it another day or so to see what the trends are.

That storm is a long shot. It’s best for it to get out asap to allow heights to recover enough to get the weekend storm to come up the coast. The GFS OP took a step towards that.

6z GFS is saying what favorable pattern? Shows a big  rainstorm  at day 11.

1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I can’t stress enough this pattern we’re entering has powder keg potential. The GEFS and EPS are textbook for a HECS to occur. Of course just because a pattern is ripe doesn’t mean it will produce. In the end I will be shocked if we don’t have the pattern give us at least an area wide MECS before the month comes to a close.

 

 

 

6 inches in Nutley. Good storm.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is overperforming in the NYC area

 

Nice to see 

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is overperforming in the NYC area

 

Nice to see 

We needed this after the crap pattern we had in December. I got a good vibe this morning we’re going to rock in January. Buckle up Anthony!

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have a feeling we might get one huge snowstorm and that's it

As long as it’s a blizzard of ‘96 redux, I’ll be satisfied. 

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I dont get the doom and gloom. Looks like a nice little storm for the area.

 

too much drama in this forum. No offense…

I think a lot of us NYC metro folks are still smarting from the last storm.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's still a possibility of it blowing up fast near the coast. I don't think models will be able to figure that out till tomorrow. 

Either way the lack of a +PNA hurts this system but there will be much better opportunities going forward.

Miller B’s rarely work out for our area. We have to deal with subsidence issues more often than not. Hoping for a weak/moderate ElNino next winter. Give me some Miller A’s to track.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Very sad lol

I hate LaNina’s. I’ll take my chances with ElNino every time.

1 minute ago, Torch said:

So the NWS believes this storm rolls up the coast, even if current guidance doesn’t quite do that?

They must of seen something that the models have yet to pick up on. A little strange that they didn’t at least wait till the 0z runs come out.

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps further east and weak

 

I will be praying to the snow gods later on

Further east? Just this morning we were worried about possible mixing issues! I need a new hobby.

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seems like they are leaning away from the amped/west track and more weaker offshore.

It only goes out to Friday 7am. Storm is still ongoing.

Snow maps please.