Yanksfan

55 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Fail

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-2020-us-winter-forecast/592125

 

They said Boston and NYC were going to have above average snowfall. 

Alot of people thought the same.

That's back to back epic fail winter snowfall forecasts by many mets. I don't recall that ever happening before.

Euro run even though it was still a miss has kept me from throwing in the towel. Good improvements at H5. I'll give it to Thursday 0Z runs before pulling the plug on this one.

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Good news

but since the trend is your friend we don’t want it to start crashing west now. Too soon lol. 

If your concern is that we end up with a cutter, you shouldn't worry. Trough is not sharp enough for such a solution unless we see marked changes at the upper levels in the next couple of days. If this thing phases at the optimum time I would expect a BM track or just inside.

GFS was not far from a much bigger hit. Much better northern stream interaction this run. I'm sure some ensemble members will be big hits.

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Almost there. 

 

Good improvements with the 12z suite thus far. More work needs to be done to get this up the coast but nothing insurmountable. 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Pna a lot sharper on the 12z gfs. But trough is still positively tilted. 

Northern stream is a bit faster though. Let's see if it catches up with the southern stream. 

Looking over last nights Euro run this morning even though the storm went wide right, there were big changes at the upper levels compared to 12z. If only that northern stream was a bit faster. Euro came precariously close to a monster solution. 

40 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Out to lunch since the ensembles are west.

I'm pretty sure you mean the 12z EPS  cause even though it only goes out to 144hrs, the 18z EPS are even better.

34 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I like the threat for next weekend. Haven’t been watching that closely but the ingredients are there for a big one.

It's all about timing with the northern and southern streams which always makes me skeptical in these thread the needle setups. Not to mention the Euro is either out to lunch or onto something.

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I see Allsnow laughing but its the truth.Who cares about temps this far out ? Gfs sucks with thermals.

Not to mention the GFS is underestimating the precip on the western side of the storm. Its an issue I've seen this model do at times in the past with the big storms. 

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Why exactly wouldn’t it be rain? The cold is not there near the coast

Dynamics would be at play. A low that intense would create its own cold air. 

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hard to believe with a long this strong this would be rain. Still a while to go.

Believe me It wont be. Taken verbatim that's snow down to the coast. Typical warm thermal bias with the global models. Good thing at this point is we have a signal for a strong storm. Bad thing is my Superbowl party could be in serious jeopardy.

5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s good for now. Don’t look at the rain snow line at this time.

It had me fooled. Without looking at thermal maps you would think that's a raging blizzard with a bombing sub 980 low on the BM.

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Here comes the euro for superbowl Sunday 

Wowzers. Can I see a clown map so I could at least dream?

GFS with the day 10 superbowl bomb. It gets down to 954mb as it reaches our latitude while showing snow for areas only NW. I think not!

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I think it might finally be coming.  A lousy spring is on the way.

I wouldn't throw in the towel at this point Anthony. I'm beyond aggravated as you are, but I have this sneaky suspicion that we're going to get a KU event sometime in February/March. With a split flow along with an improving western ridge, the pattern looks very active. It's only a matter of time before everything lines up for us.

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Marginal air could work though this time of year, it worked in 2006. You just need to get very lucky with everything else.

The +PNA is definitely a plus. 

An intensifying low track to the BM can do wonders even in a subpar pattern this time of year. Just ask the 240 hr GFS,

Just now, snowman19 said:

This! It’s what some people don’t understand, all the +PNA is doing is trapping PAC air, even if a -NAO block were to form, it would just trap the crap PAC air coming in from the west at that time under the block

Road trip to Siberia?

I assume Euro is a no go for this weekend? TT site is down again. Can't catch a break this winter.

21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It has been 4 years since nyc saw  snowfall over 6 inches from a storm. 

I haven't pulled an  all nighter since that storm.

This winter is another failure and might me the worst ever.

You know winter's a failure when you hope for a KU event just to achieve average annual snowfall.

42 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

850 anomalies hooked up out of HB for 3 days. While your surface temps on the 20/21/22 are in the 20`s.

We do flip on the 20th.

 

 

 

I guess that transient H/B ridge will give you a week of plus 5 , but using 850 anomalies in late Jan man ? Esch

 

The response to the AAM spike looks real. 

 

 

But that`s plus 5 for 3 days. 

 

 

Then once that rolls back , SW after SW should develop. That ridging is your friend, it what will develop into the block Hudson Bay.

 

When was the last time we saw a 5 day mean like that ? 

 

 

 

 

As our winter goes up in flames, PB tries to calm everyone down.

Does anyone have the latest MJO plots? We could use some good news in here.

6z GFS says break out the yardsticks as it shows a day 10 snow bomb. In this winter to forget why do I keep torturing myself?

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Yellowstone would kill us all, that’s one of the biggest super volcanos.

My post was sarcasm.

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

we need a massive volcanic eruption to cool the earth for the next few years maybe we will get lucky ..

Would yellow stone be big enough for you?