Yanksfan

With the MJO heading towards 8-1 there really is no excuse but for a 6 week productive pattern to settle in. I believe February will rock on this board a la 2014 redux.

15 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I am not going to post day 12 surface maps but the MJO into p7 supports the trough in the SE at the date I outlined yesterday.

 

Jan 25th or so.  But the GFS now has SLP at the BM, the key will be can this phase and the cold air win out. 

 

N branch was off by 18 hours. 

 

Just a time frame to watch. 

I'm sorry, but with that setup and track that's a snowstorm. Then again I'm not losing sleep over a day 12 GFS surface reflection. At this far out juncture I'm just looking for a consistent signal with all the major models.

Even though the primary low came in more amped on the GFS, it actually came in colder this run thanks to the stout CAD. Slight uptick on the clown maps for the coast.

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Should be an interesting week of tracking. Like you just said , the further north the primary is, the more warmth there will be.

Gfs just shifted slightly south with the primary and the Euro also did the same. Should this continue, the area would see more frozen on the front end.

The GEFS has hinted at a coastal redevelopment south of us. Not out of the realm of possibilities.

11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs gives the whole area several inches next weekend

Need to keep an eye out for a possible transfer further south. If that were the case it would be a MECS for everyone. Still have time for positive trends.

12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Bro it’s going to snow! Just let it play out it’s not about pattern it will snow. Just my 2 satoshis

I guess he's never heard of a backloaded winter. Winter of 2015/16 anyone?

17 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

So what`s left of the real warm up is Jan 10 - Jan 16 and then the GFS fades it away. 

 

That is a much quicker flip on the GFS than even I expected if that`s right.  

Just goes to show how unreliable the long range forecasting has been. A week ago I pretty much gave up hope for any appreciable snow in January and punted the month away. Now it looks like before too long we're back in the game. Here's hoping when the pattern changes it locks in and we have winter storms to track. It's been boring in here lately with all the bickering and back biting going on.

5 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I just pulled up next to a salt spreader truck in the Bronx I rolled down my window the driver rolled down his I told him you'll be getting plenty of overtime in about two weeks he looked at me like I was nuts he said I hope so I said me too

There's this ominous feeling in me with the unusual warm weather this weekend, that we will pay for it dearly with a blockbuster snowstorm next month.

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What's with all the doom?

Mjo looks pretty good  at the end of this month 

The problem is what does the MJO do afterwards. If it stays in the 8-1-2 phase, February and March will rock. However there is still concern it traverses into the COD before back peddling to 4-5. If that happens the winter is toast. Our fate should become much clearer in the next week or two.

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Same.  It feels good to be comfortable outside 

Maybe, although nothing beats the emotional angst I get waiting for the next model run when an impending HECS is coming.

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Bet that was a tad awkward. Then again they know you love the weather!

Well today I learned there truly is a porn genre for every category including the weather desk. 

Yep. I had to do a double take. I thought it was Amy Freeze for a second. Oh well, back to the weather.

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a lot of meteorologists are on board for a big  patern change at the end of this month.

I know it's just a random run of the GFS, but towards the end of the run it shows a 968 cutter. That might just do the trick to snap us back into a more wintry regime.

29 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

GfS and Cmc have a snowstorm for January 7th timeframe. Snow is coming for sure

the geese now the models showing it

Euro shows it too. Hopefully the models latches onto the idea and we have a legit storm to track. Believe me we need this with all the cliff diving going on in recent days.

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i love when it's warm in winter and all the weenies get upset 

Who me???

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This winter will likely to have 1 hecs and that will be our snow. Pretty lame unless we have a massive hecs.

It's way too early for any ledge jumping. Heck look at the calendar it's not even winter yet. Despite the garbage pattern we're in currently, at least it's not a torch. It's just volatile. We can still score on some nickel and dime events despite the unfavorable Pacific. Like I said, once we get into January and beyond things will turn around in our favor. We have the players on the field; split flow jet, above normal SST's, and a low solar minimum. I don't see why we can't lock into a good six weeks of a snowy pattern.

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

What the hell happened to the big storm this weekend? Everyone was excited about it.

Pattern sucks right now. We have a Pac jet on steroids and a lack of any meaningful blocking. All we have are quick shots of cold air followed by cutters. The only way we can score is with a well positioned SWFE. Hopefully with the impending AO drop it will reshuffle the pattern. In the meantime I'm about ready to punt the rest of December away. On a final note I got a feeling once we get into the heart of winter, the Pac will start to relax and stronger blocking will take hold. It's more likely than not we see a HECS before all is said and done. We just have to be patient.

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Setup is there for a big storm.

Euro finally came on board

If it were not for the raging Pacific we would be looking at a Boxing Day redux. On the flip side we have a week for the pattern to hopefully become more favorable. Stronger Greenland blocking and/or the western ridge remaining stout would certainly help. If not for those factors we're going to need great timing to pull it off. At the very least we have a potential big ticket event to track in the coming days.

12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Active December so far . Gfs has a few more storms on the horizon .

I think it's safe to say all the warm December forecasts are going to bust badly. 

4 inches storm total. At this early juncture of the season I'll take it and run.

7 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

New GFS still an outlier to some extent, but that being said it is moving to other models and still gets a lot of QPF all over NJ and the City, with it snowing until about 4/5am Tuesday

GFS is always late for the party.

8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Credits to powderfreak from New England forum

Looks like the Euro trended snowier/colder from this afternoons run.

Any word on 18Z Euro?

29 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Prob won't be sorted out until it's happening which makes this all the more fun or frustrating, depending on how you look at it. 

Why do I have the feeling we're going to see a redux of last November's snowstorm. DPW better be on alert with this one. Highly volatile forecast.

Janice Huff has upped snowfall amounts. 3-5 for NYC metro with 5-8 inland. As you get into the I-84 corridor a foot or more.

Any word on the 18z Euro?